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5 Looking Forward
Pages 179-202

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From page 179...
... Climate change, now nationally and internationally recognized as crucial in ecosystem restoration planning, was less of a prominent issue during the development of the Central Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP; USACE and SFWMD, 1999, known as the Yellow Book)
From page 180...
... The Programmatic Regulations define adaptive management as "a means for analyzing the performance of the Plan and assessing progress toward meeting the goals and purposes of the Plan as well as a basis for improving the performance of the Plan." Specifically, the Regulations (33 CFR §385.31) require the CERP adaptive management program: to assess responses of the South Florida ecosystem to implementation of the Plan; to determine whether or not these responses match expectations, includ ing the achievement of the expected performance level of the Plan, the interim goals established pursuant to §385.38, and the interim targets established pursuant §  385.39; to determine if the Plan, system or project operations, or the sequence and schedule of projects should be modified to achieve the goals and purposes of the Plan, or to increase net benefits, or to improve cost effective­ ess; and to seek continuous improvement of the Plan based upon new n information resulting from changed or unforeseen circumstances, new scientific and technical information, new or updated modeling; information developed through the assessment principles contained in the Plan; and future authorized changes to the Plan integrated into the implementation of the Plan.
From page 181...
... As discussed in Chapters 2 and 4, at a high level, this is relatively easy to articulate and generally agreed upon. The stated goal of the CERP is "restoration, preservation, and protection of the South Florida ecosystem while providing for other water-related needs of the region, including water supply and flood protection" (WRDA 2000)
From page 182...
... . Development of measurable objectives is crucial to effective planning, implementation, and assessment at both the project and programmatic levels and requires consideration of the inherent tradeoffs that must be made in any complex ecosystem restoration program (Reed, 2006)
From page 183...
... continued development and refinement of the recommended indicators and interim goals contained within the RECOVER Recommendations consistent with the requirements of the programmatic regulations" (USACE et al., 2007)
From page 184...
... As noted in Chapter 4, substantial new information on pre-drainage hydrol ogy, climate change, and sea level rise has been obtained since restoration goals were developed. The implications of this new knowledge for restora tion goals and objectives are varied.
From page 185...
... As part of the Adaptive Management Program, the CERP Programmatic Regulations also call for the agencies to "conduct an evaluation of the Plan using new or updated modeling that includes the latest scientific, technical, and planning information." These evaluations, termed "CERP Updates," are to be conducted "whenever necessary to ensure that the goals and objectives of the Plan are achieved but not any less often than every 5 years." These evaluations can result in consideration of adjustments in operations, CERP components (removing, adding or changing) , or any combination of these.
From page 186...
... , but the implications of climate change and sea level rise to CERP goals under various scenarios can be quantified, and other benefits not envisioned in the original restoration plan can be explored. Climate change is now widely recognized as critical to planning any new large scale coastal ecosystem restoration.
From page 187...
... The report also specifies the information needed to complete the adaptive management feedback loop and presents management options matrices (MOMs) , to summarize actions that could be taken if restoration efforts are not meeting performance targets.
From page 188...
... impacts on larval W o ­ yster recruitment, given an adequate numbers of spawning oysters in the e ­ stuaries (i.e., are larvae killed by poor water quality or are they washed d ­ ownstream)
From page 189...
... Project-level and systemwide monitoring, while informative, is not sufficient to inform the challenges and tradeoffs in decision making and management at the program level. Strategies for addressing uncertainties, for example, to determine how sea level rise will affect restoration efforts, also require continuing research
From page 190...
... recommends that adaptive management at the program level is needed "now" or "immediately" for nearly every Priority 1 uncertainty with an action time identified. Implementing Program-Level Adaptive Management Adaptive management is a required and essential component of the CERP designed to ensure that new knowledge is linked to decision making so that restoration goals can be achieved in the most effective way possible, but little progress has been made in implementing program-level adaptive management to date.
From page 191...
... SYSTEMWIDE ANALYSES NEEDED TO ENSURE CERP ACHEIVEMENT A program as extensive and complex as Everglades restoration must by necessity be implemented a few projects at a time, but this fact makes the need for a periodic holistic look at system-scale response ever more critical. Renewed attention is needed toward the future of the ecosystem and how society can shape it through the CERP and other non-CERP restoration efforts, considering the new information that has developed since the CERP was launched.
From page 192...
... • How sensitive is this future system state to key assumptions about important but currently unknown externalities such as future climate or sea-level rise rates? • Does the knowledge gained since the late 1990s (e.g., pre-drainage hydrology, sea level rise)
From page 193...
... But they can also demonstrate the benefits of continued investment, even under alternate futures and the severe consequences of not following through with the restoration vision. Shortcomings in restoration outcomes identified in this assessment will illuminate the need for modifications, either in future project planning efforts or in the restoration goals and objectives themselves.
From page 194...
... Once this forward-looking assessment is conducted (including but not lim ited to a CERP Update, as described in the Programmatic Regulations) , it should be used by CERP agencies to consider their path forward and whether adjust ments to the CERP are needed.
From page 195...
... Instead, this section focuses on models that are linked to hydrologic models to evaluate the ecological and water quality outcomes of restoration alternatives. The committee also discusses strategies to use hydrologic models to assess future climate scenarios.
From page 196...
... Inverse ecological modeling tools are also being developed that could be used to optimize restoration features to reach multiple ecological targets. Ecological models also can be used to explore the implica tions of climate change and sea level rise, changes in CERP project feasibility, and the improved understanding of the pre-drainage system (see Chapter 4)
From page 197...
... An improved capacity to simulate water quality could lead to improved ecological modeling tools. The development of a regional coupled hydrologic water quality model would provide an important tool for quantitative evaluation of a range of alternative restoration scenarios and their potential short- and longterm effects on biotic and abiotic attributes.
From page 198...
... Such a tool would allow the user to address a host of interconnected issues beyond the management and fate of inputs of total phosphorus, including loss and accretion of peat, effects on wetland habitat, and linkages to other water quality contaminants like nitrogen, sulfur and mercury, in the Everglades and in downstream coastal ecosystems. Climate Modeling Tools and Approaches The CERP was originally designed for the next 5 or 6 decades assuming that historic climate will continue, but this stationarity assumption is no longer appropriate for multidecadal restoration and water supply plans.
From page 199...
... This approach has been used in a number of studies (e.g., California, Mexico City, Brahmaputra River basin, Bangladesh) to improve the resiliency of water resources infrastructure to climate change, sea level rise, and extreme events.
From page 200...
... An effort is now needed to develop quantitative restoration goals that capture new science and address potential conflicts in restoration. When authorized, the CERP goals were broad narrative statements on restoring the South Florida ecosystem and ensuring that the water needs of the region were met.
From page 201...
... The capability for ecological modeling has advanced in recent years, to the point that models can be used to project systemwide effects of restoration activities for a variety of ecological performance measures. Ecological models link the response of species and habitats to underlying hydrologic models at local or systemwide scales and allow alternatives to be evaluated based on projected ecological outcomes.
From page 202...
... The development of a robust Everglades water quality model is a key need mov ing forward. Improved water quality modeling tools also should lead to further refinement of ecological models, since Everglades habitat, species distribution, and ecological functioning are closely linked to water quality.


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