Assessment of Solid-State Lighting, Phase Two (2017) / Chapter Skim
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2 Public Policy and Deployment of New Lighting Technologies
2 Public Policy and Deployment of New Lighting Technologies
Pages 11-31
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From page 11... ...
The global adoption of LEDs, shown in Figure 2.1, is only just beginning. Strategies Unlimited forecasts that SSL GLOBAL LIGHTING MARKET: penetration of the global installed base will grow rapidly STATUS AND POTENTIAL from less than 5 percent in 2014 to greater than 30 percent by 2020.2 As can be seen in Table 2.1, different sources of The penetration of SSL has increased dramatically since market data report somewhat different results, but they all the 2013 Assessment of Advanced Solid-State Lighting report indicate a growing market share for LED lighting in lamps (NRC, 2013)
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From page 12... ...
market share in 5-year large number of operating hours, and high lumen output intervals -- 2020 through 2035, with 2015 as the base per lamp. By 2030, LED light is forecast to account for 88 year -- of LED lighting shipments in terms of lumen-hours
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From page 13... ...
7% FIGURE 2.3 Global luminaire revenue forecast. NOTE: CFL, compact fluorescent light; LED, light-emitting diode; M, million.
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From page 14... ...
b Installations are the total cumulative number of LED lamps and luminaires that have been installed as of 2014. c The estimated savings potential is the theoretical energy savings that would return from switching all lighting fixtures "overnight" in the given application to the best LED product available in the DOE LED Lighting Facts database (in 2015)
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From page 15... ...
6 30 59 78 86 Commercial 12 36 64 80 86 Residential 5 28 57 77 86 Industrial 8 32 65 78 83 Outdoor 19 57 79 88 93 LED Penetration by Submarket for the Current SSL Path Scenarioa (in percent) Submarket 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 A-Type 6 29 56 78 90 Decorative 2 27 63 77 82 Directional 11 39 69 82 86 Linear fixture 3 16 47 68 77 Low and high bay 6 38 68 80 86 Parking 17 48 72 84 90 Area and roadway 21 66 91 97 99 Building exterior 21 58 77 85 91 Otherc 7 39 71 87 93 Total LED Installed Stock Penetration 6 30 59 78 86 a The Current SSL Path Scenario assumes current levels of investment and effort from DOE and industry.
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From page 16... ...
the potential energy savings based on a scenario where the best efficacy products available at that time were to be used FINDING: For the foreseeable future, the market pene- instantaneously to convert all U.S. lighting installations to tration of OLED lighting products will be negligible because of high cost.
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From page 17... ...
The two product applications source energy savings of nearly 5 quadrillion British thermal with the biggest potential energy savings are low/high bay units (quads) is roughly in agreement with the 2035 projected fixtures and linear fixtures, where LED technology replaces source energy savings in the recent energy savings forecast fluorescent and HID lighting.
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From page 18... ...
At the higher end, Congress has authorized funding for the L-prizes (Bright Tomorrow Lighting Prizes) , which are intended to "spur lighting manufacturers to develop high-quality, high-efficiency SSL products to replace the common incandescent light bulb." Three such awards were authorized, one for an LED replacement for the 60 W incanFIGURE 2.7 Split between core, manufacturing, and product re- descent lamp, another for an LED replacement for the PAR search and development spending for fiscal year 2015.
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From page 19... ...
. In 2015, about 6 percent of the potential energy savings were achieved using LED technology then available, consistent with the market penetrations estimates for that year.
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From page 20... ...
been more than 230 cost-shared R&D-funded projects that The recent administrations in Washington, D.C., and Calihave resulted in more than 245 patents and, as discussed in fornia have been very active in regulating lighting products Chapter 1, many SSL products are currently on the market for energy efficiency since the 2013 NRC report. In addition, with efficacies around 125 to 135 lumens per watt,15 with several other state governments have shown an increased some laboratory demonstrations reaching 200 lm/W.16 The focus on recycling programs for mercury-containing prodlighting industry is very much aware of the market pres- ucts, affecting manufacturers of fluorescent and HID lamps sures and requirements for products with good lighting through "extended producer responsibility." According to quality, in addition to high luminous efficacy.
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From page 21... ...
new rounds of rulemakings would have the effect of acceler- sure used in DOE's manufacturer impact analysis -- than the ating the transition to SSL by making lower-performing tra- average in all rulemakings, while the national energy savings ditional lighting products obsolete through regulation. Since from three of those rulemakings have been lower than the 2008, the lighting industry has gone through several rounds average (see Figure 2.10)
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From page 22... ...
, DOE is proposing standards for LED and dard for fluorescent dimming ballasts that would -- according compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) general service lamps as to the lighting industry -- eliminate the vast majority of incandescent lamp replacements.
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From page 23... ...
that are intended to complement the Energy Star lighting products, and focus primarily on commercial, industrial, FINDING: Consumers find the FTC and DOE lighting facts labels difficult to understand. FTC still has the oppor- 28 See, for example, Adler (2016)
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From page 24... ...
see section, "Recent Changes in Incentive Programs." With regards to the latest Energy Star specifications, the lighting FINDING: Purchasing advanced SSL products and industry has commented publicly31 that the specifications systems will assist federal agencies in meeting energy effifor lighting products include far more performance require- ciency and GHG emissions goals. Such purchases could be ments than any other appliance specifications in the Energy facilitated through life-cycle cost accounting.
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From page 25... ...
performance parameters, in addition to energy efficiency, in general service lamps has limited consumer choice and made RECOMMENDATION 2-7: The Department of Energy, lamps expensive. the California Energy Commission, and other regulators should consider standby power consumption separately from RECOMMENDATION 2-6: The Department of Energy the power consumption of secondary functions of lighting should convene all stakeholders, including regulators, manu- products, so that the development of innovative lighting facturers, and advocates, to seek agreement on which of products is not impeded.
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From page 26... ...
having been certified for sale in the CEC database, the com- Standard 90.1-2016 is in development and, based on curmission informed the lighting industry in late August that it rent proposals, will have many building space types with was going back to the 2015 definition of ballast output power. lighting power density allowances based on LED perforFluorescent dimming ballasts are once again available for mance.
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From page 27... ...
Traditional incandescent dimmers have a Therefore, the light output is modulated according to the 60 minimum load requirement, ranging typically from 20 W to Hz mains voltage input, especially in low-cost driver designs, 40 W, which in many LED applications is higher than the to a much larger extent than it is with filament lamps, result- total LED load. A different dimmer design is required for LED lamps to operate reliably.
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From page 28... ...
has published a series of standards that cover various other such incentives to residential customers for the use of safety and electromagnetic compatibility requirements for energy efficient lighting products, such as CFLs. In many of SSL.
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From page 29... ...
produces a Quali The phase out of nondirectional filament lamps will be in fied Products List for commercial lighting products, includ effect, subject to implementing legislation by member states, ing LED products. This list is commonly used by utilities to in the EU by September 2018.
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From page 30... ...
The government has proposed a ban on the manufacture and importation of fluorescent lamps starting in 2020.51 The Japanese lighting industry expects all new luminaire shipments to be using SSL technology by 2020, and the Japa nese government has set a goal to have the entire installed base of luminaires in buildings as well as outdoors converted to SSL by 2030. Other Countries and Regions Many other governments regulate lighting products for energy efficiency and are starting programs to phase out incandescent lamps.
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From page 31... ...
2016b. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General U1507.
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