Transportation Resilience: Adaptation to Climate Change (2016) / Chapter Skim
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40 APPENDIX A: WHITE PAPER Transportation Resilience Adaptation to Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events H
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41A P P E N D I X A : W H I T E P A P E R 2 Climate Change imPaCts on transPortation The preponderance of scientific research indicates that Earth is warming at an accelerating rate and that this change is due in large measure to the use of fossil fuels. Earth is surrounded by an envelope, the troposphere, filled in part with what we call greenhouse gases (GHGs)
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42 t r a n s p o r t a t i o n r e s i l i e n c e Mitigation is a long-term solution, perhaps, but the world must take proactive steps now to adapt to climate changes. 2.1 Major Impacts on Transportation In transportation, as with much of the built infrastructure, five specific impacts will need to be addressed (6)
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43A P P E N D I X A : W H I T E P A P E R Higher Temperatures and Longer Heat Waves Scientists are confident that Earth will continue to warm, perhaps by as much as 2.6°C to 4.8°C (4.7°F to 8.6°F) by 2100 in the absence of significant mitigation measures.
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44 t r a n s p o r t a t i o n r e s i l i e n c e on the built infrastructure will be severe. In transportation, the heat will affect expansion joints, rail stresses, and pavement deterioration.
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45A P P E N D I X A : W H I T E P A P E R a specific weather event and climate change is greatest when the type of event has a long-term historical record, such as events related to temperature. Such information would be of great value to transportation professionals, but there is much more research needed before meaningful information will be available to the practitioner.
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46 t r a n s p o r t a t i o n r e s i l i e n c e provide more localized information, but the accuracy may be limited. Certainly one important need is for accurate climate projections at the regional and local levels.
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47A P P E N D I X A : W H I T E P A P E R passenger and freight rail service, air service, transit systems, and pipeline fuel distribution. • In emergency conditions, transportation is critical to provide safe evacuation and maintain health care operations.
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48 t r a n s p o r t a t i o n r e s i l i e n c e fer due to differences in adaptation priorities, availability of funding, and degree of top-down regulation of infrastructure policies. Nevertheless, the EU and U.S.
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49A P P E N D I X A : W H I T E P A P E R There is substantial uncertainty in the expected impact of climate change on the functioning of society (see Table 1)
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50 t r a n s p o r t a t i o n r e s i l i e n c e 3.2 The Science of Decision Making Under Great Uncertainty Uncertainty in projections will remain and, therefore, it is important for decision makers to develop approaches that use this information and embrace uncertainty rather than deny it. Climate change has been termed by some as "post-normal science" (18)
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51A P P E N D I X A : W H I T E P A P E R uncertainty (Level 2)
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52 t r a n s p o r t a t i o n r e s i l i e n c e • The issue of scale. Climate scientists are much more confident about projecting climate changes, especially temperature increase and sea level rise, at the global scale.
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53A P P E N D I X A : W H I T E P A P E R The technique has been used for decades in geotechnical engineering and in its simplest form is an iterative cycle of analyze, plan, design–construct–operate, monitor, and revise. It seems most appropriate for gradual climate changes such as temperature and sea level rise and least applicable when extreme weather events are considered.
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54 t r a n s p o r t a t i o n r e s i l i e n c e ity, especially extreme events; is typically mainstreamed into existing policies; is mainly national government driven; and is directed at final economic impacts. A more recent and larger study (35)
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55A P P E N D I X A : W H I T E P A P E R acceptable risk levels to define intervention needs must be identified. Also needed are models and assessment approaches that are accurate enough and practicable to allow thorough vulnerability assessment, which ideally will include the full effects of climate change, including direct and all indirect economic effects, such as supply chain impacts and economic growth.
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56 t r a n s p o r t a t i o n r e s i l i e n c e transportation assets relative to their ability to withstand increasing climate change impacts? • What innovative technologies can enhance adaptation capacity (e.g., the protection of tunnels, the maintenance of bridges, soil stabilization, and drainage)
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57A P P E N D I X A : W H I T E P A P E R efficient than that, truck service. Both rail and truck service might struggle to absorb additional volumes given up by water-borne shipping.
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58 t r a n s p o r t a t i o n r e s i l i e n c e issues and the collective set of objectives to address social equity in the face of climate change impacts? 6 synthesis and ConCluding remarKs This paper attempts to lay out the broad issues confronting the transportation community as it addresses the need to build greater resilience into the transportation infrastructure and its users to meet the increasing demands and threats of a changing climate and more extreme weather.
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59A P P E N D I X A : W H I T E P A P E R 4. Adoption of planning approaches for climate resilience, recognizing that spatial planning and governance practices need to be reviewed in the light of climate change; 5.
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60 t r a n s p o r t a t i o n r e s i l i e n c e The Role of Uncertainty in Climate Change Adaptation Strategies -- A Danish Water Management Example. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Vol.
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