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Appendix E: Comparison of a Simple Earth System Model to Existing SC-IAMs
Pages 243-252

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From page 243...
... (2014) , these differences across SC-IAMs affect the reference climate projections and CO2 pulse responses by producing significant differences in future concentrations and global average warming by 2100 for the same emissions inputs, as well as differences in the timing, magnitude, and shape of incremental temperature responses to a CO2 pulse: see Figure E-1.
From page 244...
... modeled greenhouse be prescribed, with single gas forcing or adjustment timescales; no only timescales other non- and radiative CO2 forcers efficacies can be adjusted to represent non CO2 greenhouse gases (Myhre et al., 2013)
From page 245...
... years Fraction 3: Fraction 4: 22%, Fraction 5: 35%, infinite infinite lifetime 13%, infinite lifetime (Myhre et al., lifetime 2013) Carbon Cycle None Terrestrial Atmospheric Airborne fraction Feedback carbon stock CO2 increase increases as a loss with with warming linear function warming (with central of warming (with central parameter and cumulative parameter values: land and ocean values: 10% CO2 carbon uptake ~0.14% of concentration (Millar et al., terrestrial gain per 2016)
From page 246...
... temperature difference between equator and pole by regional latitude and average land/ ocean warming ratio Ocean Global Mean Equilibrium for Equilibrium Equilibrium GMSL Sea Level Rise components GMSL rise rise computed (GMSL) (thermal computed as as a function expansion, glacier a function of of temperature; melt, GISa mass temperature; exogenous loss, WAISb mass exogenous adjustment time loss)
From page 247...
... characterizes FUND's temperature adjustment time­ cale response as somewhat ad hoc. s Many of the differences between the SC-IAM climate models do not represent structural uncertainty, that is, different representations of the underlying system dynamics, which is the primary motivation for using multiple models.
From page 248...
... Global mean temperatures above preindustrial levels 10 10 9 9 8 8 degrees C above pre-industrial 7 2100 degrees C above pre-industrial 7 2100 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 02000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 Year Year FIGURE E-1  Plots of CO2 concentrations and global mean temperatures generated from diagnostic tests of the SC-IAM climate models with high (solid) and low (dashed)
From page 249...
... Incremental global mean temperature increase 0.0025 0.0025 2100 2100 0.002 0.002 low reference low reference emissions Change inin degrees C emissions Change degrees C 0.0015 0.0015 0.001 0.001 0.0005 0.0005 high reference high reference emissions emissions 0 0 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 Year Year and the incremental responses are from a 1 billion metric ton carbon (3.67 billion metric ton CO2) emissions pulse experiments applied to the respective high and low reference emissions (pulse released in year 2020 only)
From page 250...
... Like the parameter choices discussed above, the exclusion of parametric uncertainty from DICE and the differences in pulse implementation contribute to variations in results across models that artificially represent actual scientific uncertainty. In summary, the climate models incorporated in DICE, FUND, and PAGE are structurally equivalent to special cases of FAIR: although all omit at least one key element, they could be modified to be equivalent to FAIR and thus to satisfy the criteria outlined in Recommendation 4-1 and the requirements in Conclusion 4-1, in Chapter 4.
From page 251...
... , Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp.


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