Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor Investments (2017) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
Pages 109-118
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 109... ...
109 11.1 Goal The goal of this step is to deal with uncertainty in the estimates of benefits and costs in the BCA. Many of the data that analysts use to estimate the benefits and costs of a transportation investment are uncertain.
|
From page 110... ...
110 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor Investments Nominal Value Report the nominal value assigned to each uncertain model input and the rationale behind this value. For example, an analyst should report that the interest rate used in discounting future and current benefits and costs follows the guidance of OMB Circular A-94.
|
From page 111... ...
evaluate and Integrate Risk and Uncertainty 111 actual costs of accidents are, of course, not set by public policy and can go up or down over time, for example as a result of new technologies that reduce the probability that passengers will die as a result of an accident. On the other hand, parameters that fix the costs of accidents within a BCA can be set by public policy and will influence the results of an analysis.
|
From page 112... ...
112 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor Investments all data can be shared. The best available data should be used even if the data cannot be published.
|
From page 113... ...
evaluate and Integrate Risk and Uncertainty 113 Include at least four but no more than 15 named scenarios to study. It is difficult to have a meaningful discussion on risk and uncertainty if the results of only two or three scenarios are provided.
|
From page 114... ...
114 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor Investments The resulting 10,000 or so estimates of model outputs describe the uncertainty inherent in evaluating the outputs. The authors recommend publishing: • The mean: the average value of the model output across all of the runs of the Monte Carlo analysis and arguably the most commonly used and widely understood statistic.
|
From page 115... ...
evaluate and Integrate Risk and Uncertainty 115 Examine Results. The results of an RDM study show the situations under which different project alternatives appear most and least promising.
|
From page 116... ...
116 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor Investments example, Flyvbjerg et al.
|
From page 117... ...
evaluate and Integrate Risk and Uncertainty 117 • Developing Harmonised European Approaches for Transport Costing and Project Assessment (HEATCO)
|
From page 118... ...
118 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor Investments • Ignores uncertainty in policy variables, leading to an underestimation of uncertainty and risk. • Ignores uncertainty in exogenous factors, leading to an underestimation of uncertainty and risk.
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.