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Pages 156-198

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From page 156...
... 156 A p p e n d i x L L.1 Background The purpose of this case study is to showcase the methodology and development of a conceptual analysis of a multistate endeavor and the ability to extract the most value from available public domain data. Better data (including private domain data)
From page 157...
... Heartland Corridor Case Study 157 grade studies (for example, those that use Monte Carlo simulation) , but can be used in all stages of analysis for large projects.
From page 158...
... 158 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor investments It considered three scenarios with different rates of intermodal traffic growth for double-stack trains, namely: low (4%) , medium (6%)
From page 159...
... Heartland Corridor Case Study 159 The project features include a bundling of several individual projects aimed at improving mobility and freight capacity (see Figure L2) along the main freight corridor: 1.
From page 160...
... 160 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor investments configuration, the capacity of the rail line would have remained the same as before and the alternative route via Harrisburg would have been considered for double-stacked trains to Columbus and Chicago (see Figure L3) , potentially without any public sector participation and intermodal terminals.
From page 161...
... Heartland Corridor Case Study 161 reloaded to comply with loading requirements, helping companies locate more closely to their final customers, and providing an option for rail service for companies currently served only by trucks and thus giving them an option for faster shipments. None of these could be achieved if the facility were not built.
From page 162...
... 162 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor investments Stakeholder Who Public/Private Applicable Beneit Metrics /Direct, Indirect, IndirectWider, or Economic impacts Asset provider, service provider î NS (central corridor) î State/Federal funding agencies and terminal operators (IM terminals)
From page 163...
... Project User Impact Data/Tool- Comments Central Corridor Shippers and Business in the three states The corridor was opened in Sep.
From page 164...
... Source: U.S. Geological Survey (11)
From page 165...
... Heartland Corridor Case Study 165 These are the major roadways that will be affected as a result of diversion of flow from trucks to the rail corridor. Therefore, the safety improvements and savings in pavement maintenance and emissions will be related to the major highways highlighted in yellow (Interstate-81, Interstate-64, Route 460 in Virginia; Interstate-64, Interstate-77 in West Virginia; Interstate-70, US-33, Interstate 71, and Interstate-270 in Ohio)
From page 166...
... 166 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor investments • Similarly operating costs for all years in the analysis period were estimated by using a traffic growth rate of 35 for the flows and 1% inflation rate for the costs per ton-mile. This represents a conservative estimate of growth in operations and management fixed-variable costs.
From page 167...
... Heartland Corridor Case Study 167 3.B. Define Analysis and Determine Residual Values Parameters Since the main aim of this project involved rail service and related intermodal facilities, it was reasonable to use a longer period as an analysis timeframe.
From page 168...
... 168 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor investments of up to only 19′1″ multi-levels. Hence, double stacking was not possible before the clearance project was undertaken (6)
From page 169...
... Heartland Corridor Case Study 169 • The environment: Traffic diversion from trucks to rail reduces emissions from trucks. In addition, the shorter distances between various O-D pairs (Norfolk-Chicago; Norfolk-Columbus; Norfolk-Detroit)
From page 170...
... Commodity 0 50 100 150 200 250 KT on s 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure L8. FAF4 total flow from Virginia to Illinois by rail mode.
From page 171...
... Heartland Corridor Case Study 171 Figure L12 shows the total flow from Michigan to Virginia by rail. Nonmetallic minerals and basic chemicals are the main commodities flowing through this link.
From page 172...
... 172 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor investments Assumptions on the use of FAF4 data for analysis of the HC While FAF is a freely available resource database for the entire country, its use involves assumptions as discussed in the guidebook. Nonetheless, it provides a useful place to start a conceptual benefit cost analysis when those assumptions are well articulated and tested.
From page 173...
... Heartland Corridor Case Study 173 Source: AAR (15) Figure L14.
From page 174...
... 174 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor investments Therefore, this analysis uses the AAR's rail track miles operated (15) , by the major Class I railroads in 2012 (see Table L8)
From page 175...
... Heartland Corridor Case Study 175 Source: AAR (15) Figure L17.
From page 176...
... 176 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor investments Assumptions (new users -- modal diversion estimation) • The introduction of intermodal efficiencies via double stacking and intermodal terminals provided the potential to create new rail demand from products previously shipped by truck for each of the O-D pairs.
From page 177...
... Heartland Corridor Case Study 177 • Shipping cost savings to new users. The HC's double-stacking initiative results in improved capacity and throughput, which in turn results in diversion from truck to rail and related benefits.
From page 178...
... 178 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor investments – The analysis period was set from 2012 to 2045, with the base year set to 2012 for the BCA. – The variable shipping costs for each commodity category were estimated by using STB's URCS tool (see Section L.5)
From page 179...
... Heartland Corridor Case Study 179 STCG Commodity Daily discount rate Savings (M$ in 2012) 1 Live Animals and Fish 0.15 0.00 2 Cereal Grain (including seed)
From page 180...
... 180 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor investments STEP 7: Analyze Public Externalities and Information Needs (Safety and the Environment)
From page 181...
... Heartland Corridor Case Study 181 Safety benefits The Value of Statistical Life figures (VSLs) were obtained from the TIGER BCA Resource Guide (19)
From page 182...
... 182 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor investments STEP 8: Analyze Higher-Order Quantifiable Metrics 8.A. Determine Whether WEBs Should be Considered 8.B.
From page 183...
... Heartland Corridor Case Study 183 Rickenbacker terminal The Rickenbacker terminal (completed in 2008) was reported to have led to an estimated 12,500 additional jobs, $750 million in new development, and 1,300 acres of future development (see the Duke Realty assessment of the Rickenbacker Terminal (21)
From page 184...
... 184 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor investments The HC's project stakeholders, benefits, and costs are shown in Table L16 and Table L17 using stakeholder matrices. The WEBs national gains were seen as optional.
From page 185...
... Heartland Corridor Case Study 185 • BCA estimation process: – Shipping cost savings: The new double-stack HC represents the shortest distance and travel time between Norfolk, Virginia, and Chicago, Illinois. Shipping goods via this new route yields savings in distance traveled and hence shipping cost savings.
From page 186...
... (Using 7% discount rate) Range of estimates (in M$)
From page 187...
... Heartland Corridor Case Study 187 (Using 3% discount rate) Range of estimates (in M$)
From page 188...
... 188 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor investments Costs Account ($2012) Version 1 Version 2 Capital cost $373.46 $373.46 Fixed operating cost $1498.35 $1498.35 Incremental cost $1871.81 $1871.81 Private Benefits Account ($2012)
From page 189...
... Heartland Corridor Case Study 189 rate) Range of estimates (in M$)
From page 190...
... 190 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor investments Range of estimates (in M$) for 7% discount rate Costs Account ($2012)
From page 191...
... Heartland Corridor Case Study 191 there is practical value in conducting such an analysis for parameters impacting both the private benefits and public benefits in the case of such large-scale projects. The results from the Norfolk to Chicago O-D pair are shown in Table L28.
From page 192...
... 192 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor investments Figure L18 shows such a histogram for NPV for two O-D pairs. In this case study, the risk of several individual projects is pooled between the private and public sectors, but it suggests that additional data can provide more insights into risks and the size of benefits.
From page 193...
... Heartland Corridor Case Study 193 Figure L19 shows the results of the example robust decision-making application. The two parameters were noted to be important for calculating both project NPV and project safety benefits.
From page 194...
... 194 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor investments collect data on parameters of interest (e.g., empirical observations of the traffic growth rate or safety statistics for years in the recent historical past)
From page 195...
... Heartland Corridor Case Study 195 4. Freight Car Characteristics (Using example of coal transport below)
From page 196...
... 196 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor investments The URCS tool is used to estimate costs for two scenarios: the base case (distance = 1,251 miles) and the new route (distance = 1,049 miles)
From page 197...
... Table L32. A sample of the discounted savings for the year 2012.
From page 198...
... 198 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor investments current users and new users, reduced inventory costs, pavement maintenance cost savings, reduced emission benefits, and safety benefits. From the BCA table presented in this report for all three O-D pairs combined, the benefits realized through shipping cost savings and reduced inventory costs are significant.

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