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From page 40... ... 40 S t e p 5 5.1 Goal The goal of this step is to develop appropriate forecasts of freight activity and transport costs for the build and no-build alternatives. It is important to understand how the stage of project development can influence the individual tasks in this step. Read the entire page →
From page 41... ... Develop Forecasts 41 Modal flows refer to truck freight volumes, rail freight volumes, air cargo volumes, and barge and marine cargo volumes reported as trips or movements of motive power. In addition, sometimes volumes may refer to tonnage flows. Read the entire page →
From page 42... ... 42 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor Investments • Ensure that baseline and forecast conditions with the project are reflected in the model and networks for both the build and no-build alternatives. • Develop the forecast over the analysis period. Read the entire page →
From page 43... ... Develop Forecasts 43 (ICAT) which was used for an economic study. Read the entire page →
From page 44... ... 44 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor Investments – Mode/route choice for each cell in the above matrices. – Mode/route costs: b Travel time for each mode for each O-D pair. Read the entire page →
From page 45... ... Develop Forecasts 45 Model/Forecast Approach Level of Analysis Resource Requirements Sketch Plan, Network Analysis, Aggregate Models (FAF, Waybill etc.) , Origin-Destination Matrices Conceptual -- Line Haul Budget: Low Staff Expertise: Low-Medium Time Requirements: 2 months Network Existing Post Processing Models (Statewide, Metropolitan) Read the entire page →
From page 46... ... 46 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor Investments Market Segmentation by Commodity Type and Rules of Thumb for Major O-D Market Pairs. This method relies on six steps applied for defining the O-D markets (O-D matrix of commodity flows) Read the entire page →
From page 47... ... Develop Forecasts 47 3. Develop commodity category filters to identify divertible cargo (see Step 5 worksheets on filters and modal elasticities in Appendix M) Read the entire page →
From page 48... ... 48 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor Investments • Outputs: modal shares, including truck, rail, and intermodal. Comparison between scenarios can be used to determine modal shifts. Read the entire page →
From page 49... ... Develop Forecasts 49 Analysts are required to: • Maintain transparency in assumptions used. Precision in diversion can be improved by assignment modeling. Read the entire page →
From page 50... ... 50 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor Investments issues that must be kept in mind about forecasts and induced demand (or new user forecasting) when using different types of models or network analyses: • Travel or commodity freight models with fixed trip tables: In a majority of demand models, trip tables are fixed, and mode choice redistributes existing trips by mode for the same O-Ds. Read the entire page →
From page 51... ... Develop Forecasts 51 • Statewide network models (travel or commodity) for regional corridor studies appropriately adjusted to account for long-haul traffic (public- or private-domain models) Read the entire page →
From page 52... ... 52 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor Investments conducted for consideration of federal funding (https://casesimportal.newark.rutgers.edu/ program-evaluation) Read the entire page →
From page 53... ... Develop Forecasts 53 were targeted at major employers in the corridor, motor carriers using I-81, and freight stakeholders in Roanoke. – 2035 forecasts using traffic counts along I-81, regional economic model forecasts, 1997 Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey, Jack Faucett Associates' Truck Trip Analyzer, Virginia Statewide Travel Demand Model, National Transportation Atlas Database, and the 1998 VDOT Transearch database. Read the entire page →
From page 54... ... 54 Guide for Conducting Benefit-Cost Analyses of Multimodal, Multijurisdictional Freight Corridor Investments – Growth factors for VDOT counts developed from truck flows by O-D and direction (truck load and less than truck load) using the Transearch proprietary database Motor Carrier Data Exchange and Freight Locator Database. Read the entire page →
From page 55... ... Develop Forecasts 55 5.5 Common Mistakes Common mistakes occur when the project team: • Uses a methodology and parameters for estimation of current and future demand that are not explicitly presented or justified. • Assumes overoptimistic users' growth rates throughout the entire reference period of the project. Read the entire page →

From page 40...

... 40 S t e p 5 5.1 Goal The goal of this step is to develop appropriate forecasts of freight activity and transport costs for the build and no-build alternatives. It is important to understand how the stage of project development can influence the individual tasks in this step.