Revisiting Brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Area (2020) / Chapter Skim
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2 Geographic Scope of Populations and Disease and Change in Land Use
2 Geographic Scope of Populations and Disease and Change in Land Use
Pages 19-47
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From page 19... ...
The ranges and migration pathways of 9 of these major herds are shown in Figure 2-1. Dynamics of the northern Yellowstone elk population have been intensively studied for decades (Houston, 1982; Coughenour and Singer, 1996; Singer et al., 1997; Taper and Gogan, 2002; Barmore, 2003; White and Garrott, 2005a,b; Varley and Boyce, 2006; Eberhart et al., 2007)
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of 9 of 11 major elk herds in the GYA. This map excludes approximately one-third of the southern GYA that includes elk in the Afton-Pine, the Pinedale-South Wind River areas, and eastern Idaho, west of Grand Teton National Park (see Figure 2-4 and Tables 2-3 and 2-4)
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) of elk herds using habitats north of YNP increased markedly during the mid- and late 1970s in response to increased population size, changes in the timing of elk hunts, and protection of winter ranges outside of YNP (Coughenour and Singer, 1996)
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Elk grouping behavior has also changed, as northern Yellowstone elk have been found in larger groups following wolf reintroduction (Mao et al., 2005)
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. 2.4 Elk Herds Wintering North and West of YNP Approximately 30,000 elk in elk management units (EMUs)
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2.5 Elk Herds Wintering East and South of YNP Boundaries The Clarks Fork Herd East of YNP The Clarks Fork elk herd consists of about 4,500 migratory and nonmigratory elk that inhabit the Absaroka Mountains northeast of YNP (Middleton et al., 2013a,b)
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Also, the migrant Clarks Fork elk are exposed to four times as many grizzly bears and wolves as resident elk (Middleton et al., 2013a)
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. Elk Herds East of YNP Herds east of YNP (see Figure 2-4)
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. These units contain herds that seasonally migrate over relatively short distances from low elevation winter ranges to higher elevation summer ranges.
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FIGURE 2-7 Elk population trends in herds east of YNP. The gray bands represent the 95% confidence interval on a locally weighted scatterplot smoothing.
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FIGURE 2-9 Elk population trends in herds the furthest south of YNP. The gray bands represent the 95% confidence interval on a locally weighted scatterplot smoothing.
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. The Jackson elk herds winter on low elevation winter ranges, including the NER, the Gros Ventre drainage, and areas near Moran in GTNP.
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In theory, supplemental feeding would reduce negative effects of dry growing seasons and severe winters on forage availability, which would then result in increased elk reproduction and survival (Foley et al., 2015)
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3. CHANGES IN LAND USE AND CONSEQUENCES FOR ELK Changes in land ownership in areas outside of YNP have affected elk distributions and the ability of state wildlife authorities to manage elk populations.
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These challenges arise from a large fraction of the elk population not being available to hunters due to reduced access to public land and adjacent private land; increases in landowners who have less interest in allowing elk hunting; and elk that have shifted onto privately owned lands during the hunting season (Proffitt et al., 2010b)
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From page 34... ...
Due primarily to management removals from 2005-2008, the total population was reduced to less than 3,000 in 2009. Since that time, the total bison population has increased to nearly 5,000 in 2014, which increases the population average to about 4,000 over the longer term.
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As the bison population increased, more bison began migrating earlier to lower elevation winter ranges for better access to food resources (Meagher, 1989; Bruggeman et al., 2009; Plumb et al., 2009)
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A more recent analysis using data through 2008 indicated that in average winters, most movements outside YNP would be minimal if population sizes are kept <3,500 in the central herd and <1,200 in the northern herd (Geremia et al., 2009)
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Northern Herd Population Growth Rate Number Counted t-1 Central Herd Population Growth Rate Number Counted t-1 FIGURE 2-12 Bison population growth rates versus population sizes in the previous year, northern and central herds. SOURCE: Geremia et al., 2014b.
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Private lands just north of YNP have been acquired by USFS for inclusion into the northern bison management area. In 2006, there were 266 cattle in four herds in winter and 677 in nine herds in spring in the northern bison management area (Kilpatrick et al., 2009)
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A recent analysis of historic climate data concluded that over the past 100 years minimum temperatures have increased 2.9o F and maximum temperatures have increased 1.2o F (Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership, 2014)
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Forest Service grazing allotments in Bridger-Teton National Forest. SOURCE: Data provided by USFS and BTNF.
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As a result of greater forage intake and reduced stress, population growth rates are likely to increase. An empirical elk population model predicted that warmer winters could raise equilibrium population size in Rocky Mountain National Park elk by 50%-100% depending on whether summers are drier or wetter (Wang et al., 2002)
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2003. Ecology of Ungulates and Their Winter Range in Northern Yellowstone National Park: Research and Synthesis 1962-1970.
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National Park Service, Yellowstone National Park, Mammoth, WY. September 2014.
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2007. Population growth of Yellowstone grizzly bears: Uncertainty and future monitoring.
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2004. Montana Statewide Elk Management Plan.
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2007. Bison and Elk Management Plan for the National Elk Refuge and Grand Teton National Park.
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2005a. Northern Yellowstone elk after wolf restoration.
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