Understanding and Predicting the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current Critical Gaps and Recommendations (2018) / Chapter Skim
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1 Introduction
1 Introduction
Pages 9-18
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From page 9... ...
Hurricane intensity, offshore safety, harmful algal blooms, oil spill response, the entire Gulf food chain, shallow-water nutrient supply, the fishing industry, tourism, and the Gulf Coast economy are all affected by the position, strength, and structure of the LC and associated eddies. Although the LC is the dominant physical oceanographic feature in the Gulf, the episodic northward intrusion into the Gulf of Mexico and the associated eddy shedding are not clearly understood (Sturges and Lugo-Fernández, 2005)
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From page 10... ...
However, they are limited in geographic scope and are not long term in nature. While they have advanced the general description of the LCS and provided valuable insight on forcing mechanisms, there are still significant gaps in understanding the formation, variability, and structure of the LCS and its interaction with other dynamic processes in the Gulf or the Gulf's varying bathymetry.
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From page 11... ...
This strategy includes advice on how to design a long-term observational campaign and complementary data assimilation and numerical modeling efforts. As reflected throughout the report, a combination of efforts needs to occur in conjunction to improve understanding and prediction of the LCS: • Incorporation of existing federally, internationally, and privately funded obser vational and modeling efforts; • Collaboration with U.S., Mexican, and Cuban government agencies and/or institutions as well as with private industry; and • Investments in new observations, new technologies, and improved data as similation and ocean–atmosphere modeling for the Gulf of Mexico.
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From page 12... ...
The lack of deep water observations failed to inform data assimilation schemes and, hence, numerical circulation models. Deep water observations, if properly accounted for in models, could have improved model prediction skill and response decision makers could have had a better understanding about the interaction of the LCS with the oceanographic processes of the continental shelf in the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico.
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From page 13... ...
(2011) , Monitoring and Modeling the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill: A Record-Breaking Enterprise, Geophys.
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From page 14... ...
The 18-month period from June 2014 to December 2015 is of particular interest because of the uncharacteristically active LCS behavior and its correspondingly significant detrimental effects on offshore oil and gas operations. This hyperactivity event affected sites across the entire northern, central, and even some portions of the western Gulf of Mexico for prolonged periods with strong and highly variable current velocities.
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From page 15... ...
At the same time, in situ surface drifter measurements taken by oil and gas service providers indicated frequently recurring ocean current intensities upward of 3.0 knots that were sustained for several weeks at a time, with peak observed amplitudes over 4.0 knots throughout the 18-month time period (Sharma et al., 2016)
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From page 16... ...
observed significant delays and downtime due to the adverse impact of elevated currents on critical current-sensitive operations, including, but not limited to, platform installation, hull wet tows, spar upending, drift-ins, riser installation, suction pile installation, unlatching the rig, subsea tree installation, pipe laying, remotely operated vehicle (ROV) deployments, and dynamic positioning (Sharma et al., 2016)
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From page 17... ...
We seek to aid the GRP in investing research funds that will ultimately allow modelers to • Improve predictive skill in forecasting the LC and/or LCE current speed, vertical structure, and duration out to a forecast period of a few days to 1 week • Improve predictive skill in forecasting the extension of the LC (location and duration) and LCE propagation out to a forecast period of approximately 1 month • Improve predictive skill in forecasting an eddy shedding event from an ex tended LC out to a forecast period of approximately 3 months STUDY APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY The Committee on Advancing Understanding of Gulf of Mexico Loop Current ynamics D was formed in late 2016 and completed its work over the course of 9 months.
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From page 18... ...
• ssess the capacity of current technologies to meet the overarching goal of character A izing Loop Current dynamics and suggest opportunities for new approaches, improved technologies, or transfer of technologies from other fields. • Describe critical components of a field campaign necessary to fill in gaps identified by the committee in observations and observational technology, data assimilation, and physics and analyses that are needed to improve understanding of Loop Current variability and improve modeling and forecasting skill.
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