Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise (2018) / Chapter Skim
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2 The Motivation for Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise
2 The Motivation for Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise
Pages 19-38
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From page 19... ...
, and, arguably by extension, the mission of the weather enterprise at large: Provide weather, water, and climate data, forecasts, and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. Success in achieving this mission requires the capability to effectively inform decision making and to help people prepare for and respond to many types of hazardous weather -- not just among individuals, but among numerous institutional actors.
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From page 20... ...
led the"Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map" project, to provide more accurate real-time forecast guidance for storm surges, and to communicate this information in a way that is useful for people to act upon. This new map ping product shows areas where storm surge could occur during a tropical cyclone event.
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From page 21... ...
. Such studies illustrate how SBS research can address more than just individual-level communication issues to improve understanding of and provide practical guidance to and protective action initiation (the time between when an alert or warning is received by a person at risk and the initiation of a recommended protective action emergency management operations at the systems level.
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From page 22... ...
, and informing decisions about protecting and evacuating dense population centers, developing more resilient urban infrastructure and more sustainable flood insurance policies, and providing response and recovery support that ultimately increases weather readiness for all. As a result of such experiences, there is increasing recognition that SBS insights provide a critical underpinning of the weather enterprise.
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From page 23... ...
It illustrates the broad potential impact of SBS research by showing how decision making and actions at different scales within the timeframe of a hazardous weather event depend on, and can influence, social and physical contexts. The growing emphasis on IDSS also points to the need to focus beyond just forecast and warning products toward services that support decisions for "end to end" integrated planning and for building resiliency throughout the full cycle of preparedness and mitigation; monitoring, assessment, and forecasting; dissemination of warnings and recommended actions; response efforts of institutions and individuals; and post-event assessment and recovery efforts.
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From page 24... ...
S O C I A L A N D B E H AV I O R A L S C I E N C E S W I T H I N T H E W E AT H E R E N T E R P R I S E FIGURE 2.1 Stages of communication and decision support that must be addressed under the Weather Ready Nation paradigm, with examples of how social and behavioral sciences (SBS) research can provide critical insights and understanding in each of these stages.
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From page 25... ...
. NOTE: CDC = Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; EOC = emergency operations center; FAA = Federal Aviation Administration; FEMA = Federal Emergency Management Agency; FHWA = Federal Highway Administration; NWS = National Weather Service.
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From page 26... ...
• Dissemination of weather information can include formal products, channels, and standardized operating procedures, as well as informal or ad hoc local procedures. SBS research can improve the design, implementation, and evalu ation of each of these, as well as how they function collectively.
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From page 27... ...
A few examples discussed below help to illustrate that SBS research is not only critical to the weather enterprise today, but also may become even more important in the future. Proliferation of Weather Information Sources While the NWS is the original source of most U.S.
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From page 28... ...
is a project of the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory that proposes to modernize the high-impact weather forecasting and communication processes by addressing seven interrelated functions of the watch and warning process: the nature of hazardous weather; observations and guidance; forecaster decisions; forecast generation tools; useable output; effective response; and verification. Currently NWS follows a "warn-on-detection" strategy, in which warnings for local severe weather are not issued until there is an early signal on radar, or the weather hazard is physically spotted, which in some cases does not provide the public with enough lead time to move to safety.
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From page 29... ...
This near-real-time imagery will help meteorologists see which storms are strengthening or weakening, possibly improving lead times for warnings of severe storms, particularly in areas devoid of radar. Storm initiation, which often is seen on satellite images before it appears on radar, will be known much more quickly, allowing forecasters to pinpoint the most likely regions of interest for upcoming severe weather.
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From page 30... ...
Social science may also be useful in determining the optimal interactions and task sharing among disparate River Forecast Centers and the National Water Center Operations Center. Automated and Connected Vehicles Widespread options already exist for drivers to choose "connected vehicles" that are equipped with features such as internet-enabled navigation and safety alerts, including hazardous weather information.
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From page 31... ...
, some key research challenges are to understand the synergy between the humans and automation, potential changes in driving behavior due to automation, and the type of information that the drivers will receive from the automated driving system. Climate Change and Extreme Weather Risks In addition to these many changes in technologies and processes related to weather information, changes in the weather itself must be considered.
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From page 32... ...
This dynamic poses challenges even in the context of normal temporal variability of weather hazards. But when historical weather patterns change such that a region receives more intense or more frequent extreme weather than in the past, the need for effective communication is escalated so that people are in a position to make response decisions based on accurate, up-todate information and appropriate assumptions about the levels of risk they face.
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From page 33... ...
. SBS research has contributed to NIH efforts to improve public health in areas such as reducing tobacco use, improving control of infectious diseases, increasing disease screening, and reducing environmental exposures.
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From page 34... ...
Weather forecasters and broadcasters have long debated whether their role is simply to provide information about weather risks or to persuade people to take specific actions in response to those risks. In contrast, this question is unambiguous in other parts of the weather enterprise, including FEMA, which directly aims to both inform sound preparedness and response actions and actively persuade people to take such actions.
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From page 35... ...
Instead, they leave it to individuals to act as they think best. At the opposite pole of purely directive communication, policy makers use legal authority to mandate specific actions.
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From page 36... ...
Consider, for example, how one might evaluate and assign value to the outcomes of a hazardous weather warning. What may seem like a relatively simple measure of performance -- compliance by taking protective action -- poses a challenge in that it is often impossible to know why people fail to comply with recommended actions (e.g., Were they unaware of the recommendations?
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From page 37... ...
Another example d comes from the Integrated Warning Team workshops that bring together forecasters, emergency managers, broadcast meteorologists, social scientists, and other core forecast information users (e.g., transportation managers)
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From page 38... ...
. Such efforts for instance, have debunked the myth that people panic in hazardous weather situations, have revealed that people seek confirmation of warnings, and have shown the range of weather information sources that people have used over the years.
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