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Summary
Pages 1-18

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From page 1...
... on the North Fork Toutle River approximately 8 miles (~13 km) downstream of Spirit Lake, and implementation of flood risk management measures, including levee upgrades in the lower Cowlitz River valley.
From page 3...
... -- ­ gencies a with mandated responsibilities in the region -- develop a long-term plan to manage Spirit Lake water levels. At the request of the USFS, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a committee to develop a decision framework to support the long-term management of risks related to the Spirit Lake and Toutle River system in light of the FIGURE S.1  Mount St.
From page 4...
... These could cause social and economic disruption in populated and commercial areas and are mostly the result of channel infill from the movement of sediment out of the Toutle River and into the Cowlitz River. Second is the likelihood of life loss and community destruction caused by catastrophic flooding and mudflows into populated areas along the Toutle River and the lower Cowlitz River.
From page 5...
... Engagement with interested and affected parties consisted largely of public meetings held by the agency at certain points in the decision process to receive public comments. Although this process accomplishes some goals, it typically limits opportunities to explore the values and management ideas of other interested and affected parties, misses opportunities to identify joint gains, and can leave the excluded parties lacking trust in decisions made by those in authority.
From page 6...
... represent another kind of operational risk. It appears that such operational factors have not been systematically considered in appraising risks associated with the Spirit Lake and Toutle River system.
From page 7...
... But, given the competing values of interested and affected parties in the region; the lack of agreement on planning time frames; the overlapping but sometimes competing management responsibilities and authorities in the region; and the limited budgets of those authorities, that process needs to promote communication and trust among agencies and the public so that technical decisions effectively and satisfactorily incorporate the priorities of those interested and affected parties. Recommendation: Adopt a deliberative and participator y decision-making process that includes technical considerations; balances competing safety, environmental, ecological, economic, and other objectives of participants; appropriately treats risk and uncertainty; and is informed by and responsive to public concerns.
From page 8...
... The committee recommends the ­ rOACTP construct in this modified form because it is based on an analytical-­ deliberative process that relies on the results of scientific and engineering investigations and incorporates deliberation with representatives of the broader public throughout the decision process to both influence and be influenced by technical analysis. Second, the decision framework explicitly calls for use of decision analysis techniques to properly account for the multiple objectives and multiple values of interested and affected parties.
From page 9...
... • What is the time frame being considered for this decision problem? Early in the decision process, the full range of interested and affected parties needs to be engaged at a depth sufficient for management decisions to be adequately informed by their concerns and values.
From page 10...
... Such an arrangement would likely require a number of congressional actions. Recommendation: Create a system-level entity or consortium of agencies to lead a collaborative multiagency multi-jurisdictional effort that can plan, program, create incentives, and seek funding to implement management solutions focused on the entire Spirit Lake and Toutle River system.
From page 11...
... (Chapter 6) Developing Common Understanding of the System and Management Options Wise system management requires the development of shared knowledge and shared recognition of the visions, values, and objectives of key actors, but views on the nature and causes of problems in the Spirit Lake and Toutle River system diverge among interested and affected parties.
From page 12...
... Recommendation: Alternatives for managing the Spirit Lake and Toutle River system should be judged over both short and long time frames to ensure consideration of the range of the concerns of interested and affected parties. (Chapter 5)
From page 13...
... Objectives of all interested and affected parties need to be identified and the compiled list used as the basis for further deliberations among deci­ sion makers. Identifying objectives includes developing a common under­ standing of the underlying interests of decision participants.
From page 14...
... . Each of those subgoals can be further broken down into more subgoals, eventually representing the relationships of all the objectives identified by interested and affected parties.
From page 15...
... A deliberative and participatory approach that involves both interested and affected parties and technical experts in building "if-then" hypotheses and cause-and-effect relationships can aid those participants in generating a common understanding of how management options impact the issues of concern for participants. Analysis of possible consequences needs to include consideration of the range of uncertainties associated with the management alternative itself and those inherent in the Spirit Lake and Toutle River system.
From page 16...
... Some anticipated trade-offs could revolve around downstream sedimentation versus a more "natural" drainage system; cost versus catastrophic flood risk; sediment retention versus anadromous fish abundance; fish populations downstream versus fish populations upstream of the SRS; and short-term versus long-term actions and consequences. A well-implemented decision process should help participants balance competing objectives in searching for a mutually acceptable solution.
From page 17...
... . The repeated need for repairs on the outflow tunnel controlling lake levels has led to a recent, largely nonquantitative potential failure modes analysis (PFMA)


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