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7 Identifying Decision Objectives and Alternatives
Pages 223-246

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From page 223...
... The discussion then leads to how the decision participants might start formulating a wide range of alternatives across the system to meet specific objectives. THE OBJECTIVES Decision objectives are the identified goals that are to be attained or accomplished through decision making (Keeney, 1988)
From page 224...
... . The decision process should result in development of a complete, compact, and structured set of decision objectives that includes all the objectives identified by the agencies and other interested and affected parties.
From page 225...
... Management alternatives could be compared based on how they impact • Flood control, including both the risk of a catastrophic breakout of Spirit Lake and the chronic flood risk arising from sedimentation and high seasonal flows; • Navigation; • Water quality; • Erosion; • Fish and wildlife; and • Maintenance of cultural resources. Based on comments received from interested and affected parties during the committee's public meetings, this preliminary list might be elaborated to include • Ecosystem services (e.g., reestablishing the pre-eruption landscape of the Toutle River)
From page 226...
... The Objectives Hierarchy The bulleted list of decision objectives above could be a starting point for discussion. As dialogue continues among the decision participants, however, a more refined and structured set of decision objectives should be developed.
From page 227...
... The objectives in it, however, might be similar to those of a hierarchy developed for decisions related to control of water levels in Spirit Lake and the implications for erosion management. The decision objectives are phrased and organized to clarify both the preferred direction of change (e.g., decreasing)
From page 228...
... Reconciling the results of this proposed objectives hierarchy and the objectives hierarchies used by other agencies is discussed briefly at the end of this chapter. Box 7.1 describes how decision objectives might be established for managing water levels at Spirit Lake.
From page 229...
... and the facilitator and decision analyst on the neutral support team can begin to work with decision participants to develop a list of decision objectives. The decision participants may use the example of a simplified partial objectives hierarchy in Figure 7.1 as a starting point for discussion and consider whether such an objectives hierarchy could be used to compare system-wide alternatives for managing water levels at Spirit Lake.
From page 230...
... The completeness of an objectives hierarchy might be gauged by considering a preliminary list of decision alter­ natives to the decision problem. When comparing alternatives, if no new decision objectives are raised by the interested and affected parties, then the list may be adequate.
From page 231...
... When beginning to develop metrics, a deliberative discussion with participants could consider different kinds of metrics and how they perform under different scenarios that may be of interest. These discussions are both technical in nature and driven by the concerns of decision participants.
From page 232...
... In another example, the probability of a catastrophic breakout of Spirit Lake might be a useful proxy for reducing various downstream impacts. This value might be more meaningful to participants and might be easier to measure while exploring management alternatives than to determine the myriad of downstream consequences that would arise from a breakout -- even given that the downstream impacts may be what really matter to people in the area.
From page 233...
...   In the Spirit Lake and Toutle River region, interested and affected parties described a desire to restore "naturalness" in the system, but naturalness is defined differently by different individuals. A constructed scale could be developed and applied to measure the anticipated effects on naturalness of the different decision alternatives under consideration.
From page 234...
... . Finally, progress toward certain decision objectives may be best tracked via constructed scales.
From page 235...
... Metrics for expected costs may require discussion among decision participants. Some interested and affected parties may place more importance on aggregate costs, while others may think in terms of present value costs.
From page 236...
... (Alternative 5) Known engineering design and performance Yes No Potential for mechanical failure Yes No Outflow scales with inflow No Yes Vulnerability to principal regional hazards Hydrologic High Moderate Seismic Lowa High Volcanic Lowa High Geomorphic None Moderate to High Time scales of recession post-hydrologic event Weeks to months Days Time scale for intervention in the event of Weeks to months Hours to Days failure Passes fish No Yes a There are subtleties associated with a buried conduit that increase vulnerability to these hazards.
From page 237...
... put together in a way that addresses all the possible individual actions and policies available to decision participants within the scope of decisions being addressed. A common mistake in decision making is to construct alternatives from a too narrow subset of possible actions, thus failing to represent a full range of possible solutions (Bond et al., 2008)
From page 238...
... Such an approach will capture the important impacts of, for example, • Spirit Lake water level management alternatives on the risk of catastrophic breakout through the debris field; • Spirit Lake water level management alternatives on sedimentation rates at and below the SRS; • Spirit Lake, SRS, and dredging alternatives on fish survival and recovery; and • Spirit Lake and SRS alternatives on wildlife from Spirit Lake to the Cowlitz River. This list captures some issues that are apparently secondary to the primary issue of preventing a catastrophic breakout of Spirit Lake.
From page 239...
... Nevertheless, systematically and inclusively identifying alternatives can, at different phases in the decision process, • Build trust among participants; • Inform all engaged about modeling processes and system behavior given different management alternatives; • Help participants better understand the relationship between participants' decision objectives and what is possible to change through management; and • Drive participants toward a solution. Just as it is important to collaboratively identify decision objectives and their metrics, it is important to develop the list of alternatives through a collaborative process for many of the same reasons.
From page 240...
... This involves thinking about how all the natural and built elements of the Spirit Lake and Toutle River region might contribute to or be affected by any given alternative. Different kinds and possibly combinations of coordinated management actions and policies may result in the most realistic, cost-effective, and sustainable solutions.
From page 241...
... Such an adaptive approach (given that the existing plan is truly adaptive and responsive to conditions) should also be considered among the alternatives for current and future spillway raise decisions at the SRS, where low-cost dredging alternatives might be explored before undertaking the next spillway raise -- given the cost and likely irreversibility of the decision.
From page 242...
... • A careful review of decision objectives can be useful in guiding the generation of alternatives. There is a tendency for alternatives to be adjusted from some base case or starting point.
From page 243...
... TABLE 7.2  Hypothetical Example of a Strategy Tablea Spirit Lake Drainage Dredging Spirit Lake Levels Other Alternatives SRS Alternatives Alternatives Other Maintain current Build access road Rehab tunnel Remove Dredge in Toutle Raise levees at XX, operating to intake as needed to YY regime Covered conduit Lower spillway maintain current Automate gates by 7' flood protection Do ZZ with Reduce max Open channel emergency height to XX Clear logs from Maintain Dredge in management lake Alternate current spillway Columbia system Reduce max drainage tunnel elevation as needed height to YY Reinforce log to maintain boom by intake Pumping station Raise spillway by shipping Permanently 13" drain Spirit Lake Pumping station on standby Remove upstream migration impediment for salmon NOTES: Blue squares represent a primary set of alternatives associated with one possible strategy; red squares represent the alternatives associated with a second strategy. Contents of table represent examples and not recommendations.
From page 244...
... In this case, Spirit Lake is drained to a lower level, an alternate drainage tunnel is chosen that does not discharge into the Toutle River system, and current dredging practices are continued in the lower river. Whether or not this idea is acceptable depends on how this package of alternatives, as modeled for the combined impacts across the whole system, compares to the performance of other packages of alternatives given the chosen decision objectives and metrics.
From page 245...
... might help the decision participant group assess the appropriateness of their alternatives through questions such as: • Do the alternatives, as a collective set, address the objectives of interested and affected parties?   New and innovative alternatives may be derived through con sideration of the decision objectives.
From page 246...
... A strategy table applied in a real-world setting would probably include more elements than appear in Table 7.2 and, as such, is likely to be more practical once the number of alternate strategies to be considered has been reduced.


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