Statewide and Megaregional Travel Forecasting Models: Freight and Passenger (2017) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 4-13
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5 chapter one IntroductIon Statewide travel forecasting models have become an essential tool for transportation planners over the past two decades. They are used in a variety of planning and programming activities at the state and regional level to evaluate policy and investment options.
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6 • National, multistate, megaregional, and statewide travel demand models across the nation, addressing both passenger and freight, comparing the models, focusing not just on the current state of the model but also the past and projected development path followed by the agency. • The hierarchical nature of statewide versus regional models, what model type is most effective for different analyses, and the pros and cons of using common data assumptions and sources.
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7 The invitation to participate in the survey was sent to the members of the AASHTO SCOP by email on March 21, 2016. Initially, a response was requested by April 8, although this deadline was postponed after reminder emails were sent to those states that did not fill out the survey right away.
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8 1.2.2 trB Statewide Modeling Subcommittee Survey The formal survey was supplemented by an informal survey of members of TRB's subcommittee on statewide modeling, conducted during May 2016. The members of the subcommittee are leaders in the development and application of statewide models, with members from state and federal govern ment, academia, and consultants engaged in this type of work.
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9 • Coding networks, especially for future years, is very laborintensive and timeconsuming. This was particularly an issue when analysts were asked to include all the capacity or operational improvements across a larger state.
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10 employees, or sometimes partnerships with MPOs, to gain access to the talent required to build and use such models. The remaining challenges were cited only a few times, so perhaps less easy to characterize as broad issues.
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11 On the other hand, megaregions comprise the economic engine of the United States and are fore casted to contain half the nation's population growth and perhaps up to twothirds of its economic growth by 2050 (Amekudzi et al.
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12 used to visualize 13 megaregions (as currently defined by FHWA) and compare them with the loca tions of MPO boundaries, highway networks, county population, gross domestic product (GDP)
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13 the Chesapeake Bay model described earlier. The remaining three are ad hoc models developed for specific purposes: • Zhang et al.
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14 The development of separate HSR models appears to be more of tactical necessity than a long term trend. In its defense, HSR forecasting requires more robust and sophisticated mode choice modeling than found in all but a handful of statewide models.
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