Thriving on Our Changing Planet A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space (2018) / Chapter Skim
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3 A Prioritized Program for Science, Applications, and Observations
3 A Prioritized Program for Science, Applications, and Observations
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and international PORs, addresses exciting and societally relevant questions and challenges in Earth system science while providing the programmatic flexibility needed to leverage innovation and opportunities that occur on subdecadal time scales. THE ESAS 2017 PRIORITIZATION PROCESS Community Input Prior to the start of the decadal survey, the standing Committee on Earth Science and Applications from Space (CESAS)
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The full list of 22 Targeted Observables was then prioritized and allocated to recommended flight elements, as described in Chapter 3. Consistent with assumed budgets, the recommended flight program elements support implementation of 8 Targeted Observables.
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RFI TargetedObservables Total: 22 Key sequential steps in Science/Apps Questions: 35 Submissions: Total Supporting Science/Apps Objectives: 103 Recommended for Commitment to Flight: 5 refinement of candidate RFI #1: 139 7 Recommended for Competitive Down‐select to 3 Flights: 3 ideas to observing RFI #2: 151 Objectives Ranked Most Important: 24 system priorities Recommended for Incubation: 3 FIGURE 3.2 A notional diagram of the traceability process used by the committee to address statement of task (SOT) guidance and provide a prioritized program for (1)
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and (2) the Targeted Observables (green, corresponding to Table 3.3, on page 118)
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Integrating Themes The steering committee identified a set of Integrating Themes to complement the panel deliberation process by ensuring explicit consideration of broad, thematic concepts that cut across multiple panel domains. Members of the steering committee and representatives of each panel participated in an Integrating Themes Workshop during which priorities were considered in the context of advancing key aspects of Earth system science (e.g., the Carbon Cycle, the Water and Energy Cycles, Extreme Events)
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This value corresponds to the orange portion of Figure 3.3. It is noteworthy that in this scenario, funding for implementing this decadal survey's flight priorities does 2The statement of task says, "The survey committee will work with NASA, NOAA, and USGS to understand agency expectations of future budget allocations and design its recommendations based on budget scenarios relative to those expectations." NASA Earth Science Division (ESD)
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required for each potential program augmentation prior to down-selecting which program elements required more detailed cost estimation. Full CATE studies were completed by The Aerospace Corporation for explicitly prioritized program elements, which were binned as large (>$500 million)
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The Copernicus Program is coordinated and managed by the European Commission. Responsibility for the development of the Copernicus Space Component is delegated to the European Space Agency (ESA)
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The development of the SATM began with the committee issuing a second community RFI-2 soliciting specific science and applications needs (i.e., specific measurements/observations, or theory and/or modeling activities) that promise to advance existing or new scientific or applications objectives, contribute to fundamental understanding of Earth system science, and/or facilitate the connection between science and societal benefits (see Figure 3.1 and accompanying caption)
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In developing this ranking approach, the committee reviewed the quantitative methodology described in the report Continuity of NASA Earth Observations from Space: A Value Framework (NRC, 2015a)
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These integrating themes made it possible to view Earth system science in the context of thematic areas spanning multiple
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Recommendation 3.1: NASA, NOAA, and USGS, working in coordination, according to their appropriate roles and recognizing their agency mission and priorities, should implement an integrated programmatic approach to advancing Earth science and applications that is based on the questions and objectives in Table 3.2, "Science and Applications Priorities for the Decade 2017-2027." TABLE 3.2 Science and Applications Priorities for the Decade 2017-2027 -- The Science and Applications Portion of the Full Science and Applications Traceability Matrix (SATM) in Appendix B GLOBAL HYDROLOGICAL CYCLES AND WATER RESOURCES PANEL Science/ Societal or Science Applications Question/Goal Earth Science/Applications Objective Importance QUESTION H-1.
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other Earth system processes to change H-4b. Quantify key meteorological, glaciological, and solid Earth dynamical and state the predictability and variables and processes controlling flash floods and rapid hazard chains to improve Important impacts of hazardous detection, prediction, and preparedness.
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W-1a. Determine the effects of key boundary layer processes on weather, Most Important exchanges of energy, hydrological, and air quality forecasts at minutes to subseasonal time scales.
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Quantify the effects of clouds of all scales on radiative fluxes, including on the surface and contribute boundary layer evolution. Determine the structure, evolution, and physical/dynamical Important to predictability on time properties of clouds on all scales, including small-scale cumulus clouds.
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Quantify the fluxes from land ecosystems between aquatic ecosystems. Important ecosystems and the atmosphere, the ocean, and the solid Earth, and E-2c.
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How C-1a. Determine the global mean sea-level rise to within 0.5 mm/yr over the Most Important much will sea level rise, course of a decade.b globally and regionally, over the next decade and C-1b.
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Quantify CO2 fluxes at spatial scales of 100-500 km and monthly temporal Very Important are the variations in the resolution with uncertainty < 25% to enable regional-scale process attribution global carbon cycle and explaining year-to-year variability by net uptake of carbon by terrestrial what are the associated ecosystems (i.e., determine how much carbon uptake results from processes climate and ecosystem such as CO2 and nitrogen fertilization, forest regrowth, and changing ecosystem impacts in the context demography)
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on seasonal climate Confidence levels desired: 67%. processes, extreme events, and longer term C-7c.
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Improve understanding of high-latitude variability and midlatitude weather Very Important for Antarctica on global linkages (impact on midlatitude extreme weather and changes in storm tracks trends of sea-level rise, from increased polar temperatures, loss of ice and snow cover extent, and changes atmospheric circulation, in sea level from increased melting of ice sheets and glaciers)
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How S-3a. Quantify the rates of sea-level change and its driving processes at global, regional, Most will local sea level and local scales, with uncertainty <0.1 mm/yr for global mean sea-level equivalent and Important change along coastlines <0.5 mm/yr sea-level equivalent at resolution of 10 km.b around the world in the S-3b.
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Among the most important contributions to hydrologic sciences and engineering -- in addition to space-based measurements of water in its various forms -- are space-based observations of shortwave and longwave radiation, as such observations provide an important ingredient for estimating fluxes of evaporation and evapotranspiration (ET) , snow and glacier extent, soil moisture, atmospheric water vapor, clouds, precipitation, terrestrial vegetation and oceanic chlorophyll, and water storage in the subsurface (Box 3.3)
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. The surface properties, including soil moisture, also strongly influence the planetary boundary layer.
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Over the past decade InSAR has moved from a research tool to monitor all types of surface deformation into a mainstream applications tool for monitoring seasonal and secular variations in vertical ground motion associated with groundwater withdrawal and recharge. The technique is now used routinely by the U.S.
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Interaction of Water and Energy Cycles. Develop and evaluate an integrated Earth system analysis with sufficient observational input to accurately quantify the components of the water and energy cycles and their interactions, and to close the water balance from headwater catchments to continental-scale river basins.
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, also needs to advance in parallel to observations in order to blend model and observations delivering information on a higher time and space resolution. Planetary Boundary Layer The PBL has broad importance to a number of Earth science priorities.
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96 THRIVING ON OUR CHANGING PLANET BOX 3.4 KEY CHALLENGE AREAS FOR WEATHER PREDICTION Advances in Earth science and applications will occur throughout the decadal survey interval in part due to the evolution of more sophisticated analysis systems and technology innovation. For weather forecasts, advances in the coming decade will come from scientific and technological innovation in computing, the representation of physical processes in parameterizations, coupling of Earth system components, the use of observations with advanced data assimilation algorithms, and the consistent description of uncertainties through ensemble methods and how they interact across scales.
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The need for accurate, diurnally resolved, high vertical resolution in water vapor profiling in and across the boundary has now been elevated as an Essential Climate Variable by GCOS. Accurate and high-resolution measurements and better understanding of boundary layer processes are of key importance for improving weather and climate models and predictions.
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the 3D atmospheric state, including temperature, humidity, and winds; (2) the atmospheric boundary layer; (3)
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Ecosystem questions are thus closely related to climate, weather, hydrology, and solid Earth questions. Information on ecosystems, and how they are changing over time, is increasingly relevant to decision making by individuals, businesses, and governments.
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Sea-Level Rise. How much will sea level rise, globally and regionally, over the next decade and beyond, and what will be the role of ice sheets and ocean heat storage?
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On the other hand, forests and other terrestrial ecosystems not subjected to clearing have been operating as substantial sinks, annually taking up an average of 33 percent of the carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry (Le Quéré et al., 2016)
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Understanding the relative contributions to global sea-level change in terms of ocean warming and mass changes has been made possible by simultaneous global observations of the sea surface height from satellite altimetry (TOPEX/Poseidon and the Jason series) , ocean mass from satellite gravimetry (GRACE)
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. Low cloud feedbacks are intrinsically connected to the main branches of the atmospheric circulation and the interaction of this circulation with the planetary boundary layer.
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, in conjunction with ocean density from Argo floats, have made it possible to understand the relative contributions to global sea-level change in terms of ocean warming and mass changes (and equivalently estimate the increased energy being stored in the global oceans)
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The difference between the joint altimetric measurement of sea-level change and ocean mass change provides a direct estimate of the heat taken up by the oceans and thus represents an indirect means for mon itoring change to the planetary heat content. • eliance on in situ Argo observations for deducing the planetary heat imbalance will continue.
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Earth Surface and Interior: Dynamics and Hazards Continuous satellite observations of the solid Earth enable us to document, explain, and even anticipate Earth dynamics on an unprecedented range of spatial and temporal scales. Such dynamics include volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, landslides, ground deformation due to tectonics or large-scale groundwater extraction, changes in ice sheets and glaciers, sea-level change, erosion, large-scale tectonic uplift of mountains, and even variations in Earth's magnetic field.
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high-resolution seismic activity and surface deformation (from terrestrial measurements)
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. Globally, sea level is changing mainly as a result of two processes: density changes due to temperature variations, and mass changes due to water mass input from ice sheets, glaciers, and changes in net land water storage.
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FIGURE 3.7.1 More than 15 years of gravimetric data from GRACE illustrate decadal mass change trends due to changes in total land-surface water storage and drought patterns; changes in snow, ice, and ocean mass; and changes due to postglacial crustal rebound and large earthquakes. As shown in the local area records, each total signal involves a large annual signal with a much smaller longer-term trend.
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The three cycles of water, energy, and carbon served as main themes for connecting across panels. These three cycles have also served as the organizing framework of the grand Earth science challenges identified under the World Climate Research Program (Asrar et al., 2013)
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Numerous discussions within the precipitation community, reflected in part by multiple white paper submissions to this decadal survey, indicate the need and desire to continue to (1) advance the 5For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
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The latent heat flux is an important component of the surface available energy and is a primary driver of the surface boundary layer that influences the coupling of the land with the atmosphere and a topic of high importance to weather and air quality.
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Observing, monitoring, and predicting these complex extreme events requires an integrated Earth system approach with interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary innovations to advance our capability to better understand and predict them and prevent natural hazards from becoming human disasters. This chart shows how Earth system observations, modeling, and data assimilation can be best used together for building a weather-climate prediction and long-term projection system to inform decision-making processes in response to natural hazards and to meet societal needs.
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Moist processes associated with atmospheric convection and the coupling of these to the atmospheric circulation largely determines the evolution of major modes of atmospheric variability on S2S time scales and principally establishes the precipitation patterns associated with these modes of variability. The PBL is also intimately connected to the water and energy cycles of Earth, as it is linked to surface processes that are important to the objectives of the Global Hydrological Cycles and Water Resources Panel, the Marine and Terrestrial Ecosystems and Natural Resource Management Panel, and the Climate Variability and Change Panel.
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Carbon Cycle The natural carbon cycle and the human-driven perturbations form an integrating theme that is closely linked to water and energy cycles, biogeochemistry and the functioning of the land and ocean biosphere, and a broad range of human activities that include fossil-fuel use, industry, agriculture and forestry, and other human land uses. A central scientific focus is to document and understand the processes controlling the atmospheric levels of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane, information that is essential for improving projections of future climate forcing trends.
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The recommended targeted observables, derived from the panel priorities and informed by these themes, address key priorities within and across disciplinary lines. In so doing, they focus the investments on making the most substantive advances in Earth system science possible.
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Observation needs for the unsatisfied priorities were then aggregated and analyzed for commonalities. The resulting set of Targeted Observables -- those observations needed by SATM priorities but not satisfied in the POR -- is summarized in the Targeted Observables Table in Appendix C
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of land ice to assess sea-level contributions and Ice Elevation X freeboard height of sea ice to assess sea ice/ocean/ atmosphere interaction Ocean Surface Coincident high-accuracy currents and vector winds Doppler scatterometer Winds and to assess air-sea momentum exchange and to infer X Currents upwelling, upper ocean mixing, and sea-ice drift Vertical profiles of ozone and trace gases (including UV/VIS/IR microwave limb/nadir sounding Ozone and Trace water vapor, CO, NO2, methane, and N2O) globally and UV/VIS/IR solar/stellar occultation X Gases and with high spatial resolution Snow Depth Snow depth and snow water equivalent, including high Radar (Ka-/Ku-band)
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Could potentially be addressed by a multifunction lidar designed to address two or more of the Targeted Observables. Other ESAS 2017 Targeted Observables, Not Allocated to a Flight Program Element Aquatic-Coastal Biogeochemistry Radiance Inter-calibration Surface Water Height Magnetic Field Changes Salinity Ocean Ecosystem Structure Moisture Soil NOTE: As discussed in the text, priority observations (Targeted Observables)
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Investment for priority Targeted Observables needing technology advancement, requirements refinement, or other advances prior to cost-effective implementation, implemented through a new Incubation program element. This also includes a new Innovation Fund to enable program-level response to unexpected opportunities that occur on subdecadal time scales.
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by prioritizing the Appendix C Targeted Observables based on consideration of the science and application importance and the implementation feasibility.
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The seven Targeted Observables shown at the end of Table 3.3 were not allocated to any of the three program elements, but they are still considered important observations to implement in support of science and applications priorities identified in the SATMs. As the recommended flight program is implemented, it is expected that portions of the science for these unallocated observables will be addressed, particularly where similar measurement techniques are required to address both allocated and unallocated Targeted Observables.
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Prioritization of the 22 Targeted Observables in Appendix C to P derive the priorities in Table 3.3 was accomplished through extensive deliberation by the committee, with consideration of the following two factors: • cientific and Applications Priority. The scientific and applications priority is summarized in S the Science/Applications Priorities column of the Targeted Observables table (Appendix C)
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In a general sense, the size of the resource commitment is justified by the value of the science and applications, as summarized for each Targeted Observable in the Science/Applications Priorities column of the Targeted Observables table (Appendix C)
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budget for flight elements assumes growth at the rate of inflation for years beyond the current budget projection. Budgets to support ESAS 2017 flight recommendations are shown for the Designated, Earth System Explorer, Venture-Continuity, and Incubation program elements described in Recommendation 3.2.
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Given the breadth of observations needed to address priorities in Earth system science and the expectation of comparatively austere budgets, the recommended program relies on competition as the core approach to controlling individual mission costs, through the use of cost caps combined with trades between performance and risk during the formulation and implementation stages of system development. An Aspirational Program The committee intended the proposed observing system to be realistically accomplished within nominal budget growth, with recommended investments stated in terms of the "maximum recommended NASA development cost" levels to ensure that program balance is maintained.11 For each program element, the included Targeted Observables were drawn from the nonprioritized list of Targeted Observables identified in Appendix C, and intended to address the science and applications priorities listed in that table.
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• When appropriate, cost-effective, and consistent with recommended cost caps, NASA should con sider instrument and mission designs that can increase science/applications return by combining Targeted Observables having common measurement technologies. Program Element: Designated The Designated program element represents a group of Targeted Observables believed by the committee to be of sufficiently high value to the Earth system science and applications communities to warrant designated implementation during the decade.
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Depending on implementation specifics, the Targeted Observable may also contribute to hyperspectral open-ocean observation goals. Addresses many "Most Important" objectives of the Ecosystem, Hydrology, and Solid Earth panels, and addresses key components of the Water and Energy Cycle, Carbon Cycle, and Extreme Events integrating themes.
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, program breadth may be increased to address other identified priority observations consistent with the decision rules provided in Chapter 4. Designated Targeted Observables Each of the Targeted Observables in Table 3.5 recommended for the Designated program element is discussed in the following text, with Targeted Observables presented in alphabetic order.
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As such, this observing system spans climate, weather, and air quality and directly maps to the water and energy cycles integrating themes. • andidate Measurement Approaches.
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. Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation Earth Science/Applications Objectives for the Designated Targeted Observable: Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation Most Important Very Important Important Hydrology 1a, 1b, 1c 3b, 4b Weather 1a, 2a, 4a 3a 9a, 10a Ecosystems 3a Climate 2a, 2h 2g 3f, 5d, 7e, 8h Solid Earth 1c 4b The Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation Targeted Observable corresponds to TO-5 in the Targeted Observables table (Appendix C)
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A short-pulse altimeter mode of operation of higher frequency radar could help measure snow depth on the ground, which is an important priority both of hydrology and to ice mass measurement objectives, though this capability should not be allowed to drive mission cost or complexity. • andidate Measurement Approaches.
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. Mass Change Earth Science/Applications Objective for the Designated Targeted Observable: Mass Change Most Important Very Important Important Hydrology 1a, 2c 3b, 4c Weather Ecosystems Climate 1a, 1b, 1c 1d 7d, 7e Solid Earth 1b, 3a, 4a 5a 6b
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Consequently, monitoring changes and movement of mass throughout the Earth integrates objectives of the Climate, Solid Earth, and Hydrology panels, as well as addressing key integrating themes such as water and energy cycle with linkages to assessing whether or not systems may be approaching thresholds or tipping points, and assessing trends in the parameters observed, especially given the continuity of mass change and gravity measurements since the launch of GRACE in 2002. • andidate Measurement Approaches.
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New opportunities arising from enhanced satellite remote sensing of Earth's surface provide multiple benefits for managing agriculture and natural habitats, water use and water quality, and urban development, as well as understanding and predicting geological natural hazards. The Surface Biology and Geology observable is linked to one or more Most Important or Very Important science objectives from each panel and feeds into the three ESAS 2017 integrating themes: water and energy cycle, carbon cycle, and extreme events.
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. Surface Deformation and Change Earth Science/Applications Objectives for the Designated Targeted Observable: Surface Deformation and Change Most Important Very Important Important Hydrology 1c, 2c 4a 4b Weather Ecosystems Climate 1c 7b, 8f Solid Earth 1a, 1b, 2a, 3a, 3b, 4a 1c, 2b, 2c, 5a, 6a 4b, 6b, 6c, 6d, 7a The Surface Deformation and Change Targeted Observable corresponds to TO-19 in the Targeted Observables table (Appendix C)
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• udgetary Guidance. In keeping with the guidelines of the Designated program element and this B report's Recommendation 3.3, the Surface Deformation and Change Targeted Observable has a maximum recommended development cost of $500 million (in $FY2018)
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. b Could potentially be addressed by a multifunction lidar designed to address two or more of the Targeted Observables.
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Each of the Targeted Observables in Table 3.6 recommended for Earth System Explorer competition is discussed in the following text, listed without priority in alphabetical order. Atmospheric Winds Earth Science/Applications Objectives for the Earth System Explorer Targeted Observable: Atmospheric Winds Most Important Very Important Important Hydrology 2a, 4a 4b Weather 1a, 2a, 4a 9a, 10a Ecosystems Climate 4a, 5a, 7a, 7c 3f, 4b, 5b, 7b, 7d, 7e, 8i Solid Earth The Atmospheric Winds Targeted Observable corresponds to TO-4 in Appendix C
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Space-based measurement approaches include the following: -- lobal observations of CO2 and methane at horizontal resolution of a few km and daily revisit G with sufficiently high precision to constrain regional budgets of surface fluxes on a weekly time scale. This might be achieved with shortwave infrared (SWIR)
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This spans the interests of multiple panels and is central to the carbon cycle integrating theme. Ice Elevation Earth Science/Applications Objectives for the Earth System Explorer Targeted Observable: Ice Elevation Most Important Very Important Important Hydrology 4b Weather 3a Ecosystems Climate 1c 8a, 8b, 8c 8h Solid Earth 3a The Ice Elevation Targeted Observable corresponds to all or part of TO-7 in Appendix C
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Ocean Surface Winds and Currents Earth Science/Applications Objectives for the Earth System Explorer Targeted Observable: Ocean Surface Winds and Currents Most Important Very Important Important Hydrology 4b Weather 1a, 2a 3a Ecosystems Climate 4a, 5a, 6a, 7a, 8d 3d, 4b, 7b, 7d, 7e, 8i Solid Earth The Ocean Surface Winds and Currents Targeted Observable corresponds to all or part of TO-11 in Appendix C Ocean surface winds are important to the Earth system for a number of reasons.
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Observing and understanding ocean-surface winds and currents together will provide key insights into Earth's weather, climate, and energy cycles. Ozone and Trace Gases Earth Science/Applications Objectives for the Earth System Explorer Targeted Observable: Ozone and Trace Gases Most Important Very Important Important Hydrology Weather 2a, 4a, 5a 6a, 7a, 8a Ecosystems Climate 2g 3f, 3g, 6c, 9a Solid Earth The Ozone and Trace Gases Targeted Observable corresponds to all or part of TO-12 in Appendix C
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It and other trace gases, even though they exist in relatively small quantities in the atmosphere, have direct implications for Earth's energy cycle from the UV to the thermal infrared by influencing the radiative exchanges among the Sun, atmosphere, and Earth's surface. Snow Depth and Snow Water Equivalent Earth Science/Applications Objectives for the Earth System Explorer Targeted Observable: Snow Depth and Snow Water Equivalent Most Important Very Important Important Hydrology 1a, 1c 4a 2b Weather 3a Ecosystems Climate 8c 8f Solid Earth 4a 4b, 4c The Snow Depth and Snow Water Equivalent Targeted Observable corresponds to all or part of TO-16 in Appendix C
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The important parameter for hydrology and water supply forecasting is snow water equivalent (SWE; how much water is contained in snow, equal to snow depth multiplied snow density)
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It is instructive to examine how this approach informed the prioritization of Targeted Observables; an example is detailed in Box 3.9.
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In the coming decade, the hyperspectral radiometer on PACE is likely to provide more advanced ocean color capabilities for addressing key science priorities addressed in this survey's SATM, including marine ecosystem fluxes and structure, function, and biodiversity. The global ocean ecosystem data from PACE complements the near-shore coastal, aquatic inland, and terrestrial ecosystem information that would be derived from the Surface Biology and Geology Targeted Observable.
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ESAS 2017 also offers additional opportunities to expand beyond these capabilities. Among these opportunities are: • The Atmospheric Winds and Planetary Boundary Layer Targeted Observables to measure atmospheric winds and profiles in the atmospheric boundary layer, which will enable examination of air-sea exchanges.
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Such responses could include leveraging new technologies; responding to international, commercial, or private partnership opportunities; or providing seed investments to evaluate or demonstrate new approaches (e.g., alternative procurement models, novel launch services concepts, data buys, TABLE 3.7 Targeted Observables Selected by the Committee to Be Addressed Through the Incubation Program Element Targeted Observable Candidate Incubation Program Goals Atmospheric Winds • Improve understanding of measurement needs through advanced Earth system modeling representative of winds in coupled atmosphere-ocean-land-ice models with realistic planetary boundary layer (PBL)
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Identify and invest in needed ground, aircraft, or suborbital instrument, subsystem, or mission technologies to increase the flight readiness of these mission concepts. E ach of the Targeted Observables in Table 3.7 recommended for the Incubation program element is discussed in the following text, listed without priority in alphabetical order.
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For this reason the TO is included within the Earth System Explorer candidates and also within the Incubation candidates. The expectation is that Incubation investment could achieve sufficient risk reduction to achieve readiness for competition within the Earth System Explorer program element during the decade.
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Planetary Boundary Layer Earth Science/Applications Objectives for the Incubation Targeted Observable: Planetary Boundary Layer Most Important Very Important Important Hydrology 2a Weather 1a, 2a 3a 10a Ecosystems Climate 2b, 4a, 7a, 7c 7b, 7d, 7e Solid Earth 20For example, it is expected that wind information more directly impacts tropical regions than the extra-tropics, where available strong atmospheric mass constraints serve to constrain large-scale winds. 21Each measurement approach has advantages and disadvantages, and the optimal approach varies depending on application.
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PBL height, cloud liquid water path, cloud base, precipitation, and surface fluxes of water and energy. Three-dimensional horizontal wind vector measurements, which are part of the Atmospheric Wind Targeted Observable, are also essential to understanding PBL processes and thus consideration of the Atmospheric Wind and Planetary Boundary Layer Targeted Observables together is warranted.
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: -- Determine optimal augmentations to the POR -- both space- and ground-based -- that would address the requested requirements for the PBL targeted observables listed in the SATM (e.g., 0.2 km vertical resolution for 3D variables, and 2-3 hourly temporal resolution and 5-20 km horizontal resolution for all observables) , to resolve the structure and diurnal variability of the PBL.
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Characterizing surface topography with contiguous measurements S at 5 m spatial resolution and 0.1 m vertical resolution will allow for detailed understanding of geologic structure and geomorphological processes, which in turn can provide new insights into surface water flow, the implications of sea-level rise and storm surge in coastal areas, the depth of off-shore water in near coastal areas, and more. In addition, assuming a lidar-based system, the implications for understanding ecosystem structure, and the associated cycling of carbon will be significant, as described earlier under the Terrestrial Ecosystem Structure Targeted Observable.
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Otherwise, either the sustained monitoring of critical variables will be put at risk or innovation and new observations will stagnate as the need to fund long-term measurement records further strains an already resource-limited budget. 22Theevaluation of space-based continuity measurements in the context of quantified Earth science objectives was an important recommendation of the 2015 NRC report Continuity of NASA Earth Observations from Space: A Value Framework (NRC, 2015a)
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Implementation of the Venture-Continuity strand will challenge the science and engineering communities to make full use of technical advances and programmatic opportunities in order to develop the low-cost capabilities that will be necessary to enable sustained monitoring. Opportunities for Targeted Observables Not Allocated to a Flight Program Element A number of Targeted Observables identified by the committee and shown in Table 3.3 were not pecifically allocated to a flight program element: s • Aquatic-Coastal Biogeochemistry (details in Ecosystem Panel chapter)
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158 THRIVING ON OUR CHANGING PLANET TABLE 3.8 Implementation Opportunities for Non-Allocated Targeted Observables Related Science and Applications Objectives Implementation Targeted Observable Description MI VI I Possibilities Aquatic-Coastal • Distribution, composition, H 3a, 3b Consider any related Biogeochemistry and functioning of aquatic W submissions to Venture ecosystems and their solicitations, R&A efforts E 1c, 3a 1a 2b, 3b, 4a, biogeochemical impacts 4b, 5a, 5b • Chlorophyll, particulate organic carbon and primary C 2d 3c, 4d, 5b, production 7b • Phytoplankton biomass and S 4c composition Magnetic Field Changes • Magnetic field changes H Consider any related W submissions to Venture solicitations, R&A efforts E C S 5a 5b Ocean Ecosystem Structure • Stocks of planktonic biomass H Consider opportunistic • Primary productivity W 3a use of data from estimates recommended Aerosols E 1b, 3a 3b, 4b, 5a, • Mixed layer depth TO-2 to address TO-10; 5b • Changes in particle biomass, Consider any related particle size, spectral light C 8d 2d 3d submissions to Venture attenuation differences solicitations, R&A efforts S Radiance Inter-calibration • Climate sensitivity H Consider any related • Inter-calibration of in-flight W submissions to Venture radiometers solicitations E C 2b, 2c, 2a, 2h 2e, 5d, 7b 5c, 7c S Salinity • Sea surface salinity H 3a Consider any related W 3a submissions to Venture solicitations, R&A efforts, E 2b technology development C 6a, 7a 3d, 7d, 7e initiatives to reduce cost and improve performance S 3a Soil Moisture • Soil, root zone moisture H 2a, 2c 1a 4b, 4c, 4d Consider any related • Freeze/thaw, active layer W 3a 2a submissions to Venture monitoring solicitations, R&A efforts, E 1d, 2c • Evapotranspiration technology development • GPP C 3a, 5a, 3c, 5b, 7b, initiatives to reduce cost 6a, 7a 7e, 8 and improve performance S 1c 4b, 6b
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The combination of the two produces a far more complete understanding of components of the energy cycle that have the strongest forcings and feedbacks. Similarly, combining the Greenhouse Gases observable with the Terrestrial Ecosystem Structure and Surface Biology and Geology observables enables a more comprehensive tracking of sources of CO2 as inferred from the quantity and locations of observed CO2 and the sinks as inferred from biomass and ocean primary productivity.
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160 THRIVING ON OUR CHANGING PLANET TABLE 3.9 Potential Roles of Targeted Observables in Addressing ESAS 2017 Integrating Themes Integrating Theme Targeted Observable Contribution Water and • Aerosols: Radiative forcing and feedbacks, aerosol cloud interaction Energy Cycle • Atmospheric Winds: Role of winds in energy transport and evapotranspiration • Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation: Forcings and feedbacks, thermodynamic processes • Greenhouse Gases: Contributions of various greenhouse gases in Earth's energy balance • Ice Elevation: Ice-sheet contributions to the water cycle, modulation of ocean/atmosphere energy exchanges by sea ice • Mass Change: Movement of water throughout the Earth, ocean heat content • Ocean Surface Winds and Currents: Ocean/atmosphere energy and moisture exchanges, ocean energy transport • Planetary Boundary Layer: Energy and moisture exchanges in the boundary layer, cycling of water through evaporation and precipitation • Snow Depth and Snow Water Equivalent: Storage and distribution of water, latent energy associated with snowmelt, insulation modulating land/atmosphere energy exchanges, surface radiative balance associated with snow cover • Surface Topography and Vegetation: Cycling of water and energy through evapotranspiration, carbon uptake, soil moisture • Terrestrial Ecosystem Structure: Cycling of water and energy through evapotranspiration, carbon uptake, soil moisture Carbon Cycle • Atmospheric Winds: Surface fluxes, vertical and horizontal transport of CO2 and CH4 • Greenhouse Gases: Emissions and uptake of CO2 and CH4 and contributions to greenhouse warming • Planetary Boundary Layer: Inhibition of vertical transport of greenhouse gases • Surface Biology and Geology: Carbon uptake by terrestrial and marine ecosystems • Surface Deformation: Methane release from thawing permafrost • Surface Topography and Vegetation: Carbon uptake from terrestrial vegetation • Terrestrial Ecosystem Structure: Carbon uptake from terrestrial vegetation Extreme Events • Aerosols: Severe outbreak of air pollution in the boundary layer • Atmospheric Winds: Dynamic forcing of severe convective storms, transport of water vapor for heavy rain events and flash floods, extreme winds in severe storms, hurricanes and winter storms • Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation: Intense convective storms, floods, precipitation-induced landslides • Ice Elevation: Increased risks of storm surge associated with sea-level rise, episodic events associated with coastal erosion • Ocean Surface Winds and Current: Storm surge, hurricanes, and severe storm-induced maritime wind/wave hazards • Ozone and Trace Gases: Fire plumes, volcanic plumes, industrial disasters, surface ozone smog events, stratospheric ozone depletion events • Planetary Boundary Layer: Processes that affect severe weather • Snow Depth and Snow Water Equivalent: Flooding associated with rapid melt • Surface Deformation: Hazards related to landslides, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and both coastal and river erosion and flooding DISPOSITION OF ESAS 2007 MISSIONS IN THE ESAS 2007 OBSERVING SYSTEM The missions recommended by ESAS 2007 reflected the highest-priority science and application needs at the time. It is instructive to assess how the ESAS 2007 priorities are reflected within the ESAS 2017 recommended observing system, including the POR.
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SWOT Implemented by NASA in partnership with CNES, in POR GEO-CAPE Partially addressed by TEMPO in POR and by Aerosols in the Designated program element ACE Key objectives could be provided by a combination of Aerosols and Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation LIST Recommended under Incubation (Surface Topography and Vegetation) PATH Recommended under Incubation (Planetary Boundary Layer)
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• The establishment of decision rules (Chapter 4) ensures that community guidance with respect to science priorities is well understood when adjustments to the NASA flight program are required due to budgets that are greater or less than anticipated, or when unanticipated events alter plans.
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Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 118(6)
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Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 121:7547–7569. SCC (Social Cost of Carbon, U.S.
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Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 94(12)
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Key Terms
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