In-Time Aviation Safety Management Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System (2018) / Chapter Skim
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2 IASMS Concept of Operations and Risk Prioritization
2 IASMS Concept of Operations and Risk Prioritization
Pages 17-28
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From page 17... ...
This approach, however, would not consider the potential impact of emerging risks associated with new entrants.1 For example, new entrants will generate new issues such as a possible increase in the level of uncertainty in NAS operations, the possibility that operators will not demonstrate an appropriate level of trust in the increasingly autonomous systems; and the impact of unauthorized UAS operations and the increasing pace of commercial space operations on the safety and efficiency of the NAS. This chapter identifies three key challenges and two high-priority research projects: • Challenges -- IASMS Concept of Operations -- Identifying and Prioritizing Risks -- National Airspace System Evolution • Research Projects -- IASMS Concept of Operations and National Airspace System Evolution -- Identifying and Prioritizing Risks CHALLENGES IASMS Concept of Operations Challenge Summary Statement: A clear concept of operations (CONOPS)
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From page 18... ...
Conceptually, a monitoring system observes and characterizes the system state by collecting, fusing, and assessing data from a variety of sensors.3 The system state is continuously assessed to identify hazards and characterize associated risks, thereby detecting elevated risk states. When an elevated risk state is detected or predicted, a mitigation process is triggered to implement a safety assurance action that reduces the identified risk level.
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From page 19... ...
As the safety of various elements of the NAS improves, and as the probability threshold for a risk to be mitigated lowers, the number of elevated risk states that should be considered for mitigation will increase. Because any mitigation approach will introduce some cost into the system, risk prioritization is needed to facilitate development of an affordable IASMS.
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From page 20... ...
Eliminated F Incapable of occurrence. This level is used Incapable of occurrence. This when potential hazards are identified and level is used when potential later eliminated. hazards are identified and later eliminated. FIGURE 2.2 Sample risk assessment matrix, severity categories, and probability levels.
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From page 21... ...
In commercial transports this would include loss of control, controlled flight into terrain, and runway excursions, because they cause the most fatalities in commercial jet operations (see Figure 2.3) .6 These categories are all widely understood to be important risks to the safety of aviation, but there are specific manifestations of risk within each of these categories that have not been well characterized and for which preventive action is not yet fully effective.
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From page 22... ...
Likewise, an accident caused by human instability in which a pilot commits suicide by flying a passenger aircraft into the ground could be classified as a controlled flight into terrain accident. The corrective action for preventing such accidents, however, is far different than the corrective action to prevent unintended controlled flight into terrain accidents.8 An advanced IASMS might be able to detect off-nominal physiological features associated with human instability in real time (see Chapter 3: "Collecting Data on the Performance of Human Operators" in the Challenges section and "Protecting Personally Identifiable Information" in the Research Projects section)
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From page 23... ...
As traffic increased, the system focused primarily on aircraft separation assurance to prevent collisions and enhance broad public acceptance of a safe and reliable air transportation network. Prior to World War II, the low density of air traffic permitted the use of procedural separation based on direction, time, and speed control.
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From page 24... ...
Existing models and simulations provide additional insight into how these aircraft operate in the NAS, and increasingly sophisticated models are under development. Changes in the design of conventional aircraft and ATM systems 10 The FAA's en route centers manage the flight of aircraft operating under instrument flight rules (i.e., excluding flight operations by general aviation aircraft operating under visual flight rules)
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From page 25... ...
In some cases UAS are considered to be expendable, and UAS are sometimes a better choice for hazardous missions to avoid the risk that a manned aircraft could crash with attendant loss of life. These different perspectives of the traditional aviation community and the UAS community will be important to consider in developing UAS systems to prevent elevated risk states, especially with respect to the operation of UAS and manned aircraft in the same airspace.
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From page 26... ...
RESEARCH PROJECTS IASMS Concept of Operations and National Airspace System Evolution Research Project Summary Statement: Develop a detailed concept of operations for an IASMS using a process that considers multiple possible system architectures, evaluates key trade-offs, and identifies system requirements. This research project would help achieve the vision for an IASMS by establishing the framework upon which all other IASMS research is conducted, by identifying the near-term potential of IASMS research to enhance the safety of the NAS and to engender stakeholder support for and trust in an IASMS, and by facilitating updates to the CONOPS as the NAS evolves.
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From page 27... ...
Of particular note is the list of factors that will need to be considered in development of a detailed CONOPS:16 • System scope in terms of: -- Aircraft types, including new entrants -- Data requirements -- Known and emergent risks -- Operations in different classes of airspace -- Time scales for each functional element (monitor, assess, and mitigate) of the generic CONOPS -- Users • Ability to collect required data • Architecture • Costs and benefits • Effectiveness • Growth in air traffic • Human performance limitations and human-machine roles • NAS evolution • System authority vis-à-vis human performance capabilities and limitations • Technical capabilities • Uncertainties associated with each functional element of the generic CONOPS • Verification, validation, and certification The project will include elements that are specific to individual aviation domains, including ATM systems, commercial airlines, general aviation, ODM aircraft, UAS, and commercial space operations.
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From page 28... ...
It would also support the development of viable and effective methods for the timely detection and mitigation of elevated risk states for particular risk areas. The research project could investigate many different potential approaches, ranging from relatively simple methods based on exceedance criteria to more complex model-based methods, conformance methods, and statistical methods.
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