Aeronautics 2050 Proceedings of a Workshop–in Brief (2018) / Chapter Skim
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Aeronautics 2050: Proceedings of a Workshop--in Brief
Aeronautics 2050: Proceedings of a Workshop--in Brief
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Among the opportunities emphasized by Lightfoot were ultra-efficient flight, supersonic overland flight, electric aircraft propulsion, on-demand and urban-air mobility, and fully autonomous flight. Such opportunities, however, present challenges because they must be balanced with operational flight requirements, including safety.
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60 YEARS OF AVIATION AND AERONAUTICS IN THE JET AGE (1958-2017) Robie Samanta Roy, ASEB member, opened the first session and introduced the session panelists -- Richard Hallion of Florida Polytechnic University, Robert van der Linden of the Smithsonian Institution's National Air and Space Museum, and Jaiwon Shin of NASA ARMD.
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Shin noted that he expects high entry barriers for new entrants in the large transport category. But he added, in emerging markets, such as urban air mobility involving the production of possibly millions of units, those new markets will be more like the automotive industry with much lower entry costs.
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Opening up the discussion to the audience, and providing NASA's perspective, Jay Dryer, of NASA ARMD, focused on the challenge of balancing on the one hand safety, regulation, and certification and on the other the drive for innovation and the quick introduction of new technologies. He also noted the challenges that drive opportunities in new markets, how societal expectations drive markets, and the necessity that the incoming workforce be multidisciplinary because of increasing integration of nontraditional technologies with more traditional aeronautics technologies.
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Young agreed and emphasized that the government needs a strong national aviation policy, recognizing the importance of the aviation and aerospace industry and investing in aeronautics development in the national interest -- especially if we want as a nation to remain the world leader. Burleson responded that the United States has invested heavily in engaging with international aviation through training and improving standards -- focusing on where Americans are traveling.
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Chao then moved on to talk about industry life cycles, indicating that the UAV industry represents the early phase -- the so-called "entry and experimentation" phase of the life cycle -- during which product innovation is key, whereas commercial aviation is in a mature "stability and decline" phase of its life cycle, and now benefits more from process innovation. Alluding to the keynote address, he stated that incrementalism is the appropriate mindset for a mature market, but that market maturity should not be conflated with high and low technology.
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Aboulafia finally noted that military developments are much less of a source of civil technology than in the past -- meaning that the civil sector will have to be responsible for more of its own technology development. John Langford of Aurora Flight Sciences asked how NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate should use its limited budget.
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Chao agreed that this is a timely question and drew attention to a shift in the economy away from mass production and toward mass customization of experience, leading to niche markets supported by private investments. FUTURE VISIONS -- NEW DIRECTIONS FOR AVIATION Nicholas Lappos, ASEB member, introduced the panelists -- Ilan Kroo of Stanford University, Atherton Carty of Lockheed Martin SkunkWorks, Pradeep Fernandes of Boeing HorizonX, and John Langford of Aurora Flight Sciences -- for the final session and briefly reviewed key technologies in the future of aviation, including the increased use of autonomy, urban mobility, and electric propulsion.
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Turning to the role of NASA, Langford noted that NASA must be dedicated over the long term to autonomy research, which includes both working on the infrastructure for autonomous vehicle traffic management as well as the certification of "trusted-autonomy" systems. Kroo then noted that many of the companies now getting involved in autonomous aircraft have little expertise in aerospace, and one of NASA's roles continues to be advising the industry on how to integrate themselves into the aeronautics community and combining the computer science with the physics.
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Kroo agreed, saying that, technically, much autonomous urban air mobility is possible, but the average person needs to be able to buy the vehicles, which must be reliable and safe -- and how long it takes to get to that point will depend on a lot of investment. The final question asked, by Lewis, was if industry is currently in a position in which innovation is stifled by antiquated regulations.
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These sectors will be integrated within corporations, and success ful business models will need to anticipate this increasing integration. • NASA is struggling to attract the brightest talents of the incoming workforce and should transform itself.
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STAFF: Nathan Boll, Associate Program Officer Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board; Sarah Brothers, Associate Program Officer, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board; Michael H Moloney, Director, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board SPONSORS: This workshop was supported by NASA and the 58-67 Fund for Space and Aeronautics (with support from the Lockheed Martin Corporation)
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