Understanding the Long-Term Evolution of the Coupled Natural-Human Coastal System The Future of the U.S. Gulf Coast (2018) / Chapter Skim
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The ad hoc committee was asked to identify scientific and technical gaps in understanding the interactions and feedbacks between human and natural processes, to define essential components of a research and development program in response to the identified gaps, and to develop and set priorities for up to three critical areas of research. In addition, the committee was asked to identify barriers to and opportunities for more effective communication among scientists and coastal stakeholders about long-term changes to the coastal zone (see Box 1.1 for the full Statement of Task)
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The committee was asked to identify up to three critical areas of research that would increase understanding of long-term natural coastal dynamics in order to advance the science and help inform stakeholder decision making. First, the committee developed a comprehensive vision that could guide the critical areas of research to understand and predict the feedbacks and interactions among the physical, ecological, and human components and the resulting evolution of the coupled system along the Gulf Coast, in the context of both human and climate drivers.
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• Critical Area 1: How will coastal landforms and coastal ecosystems along the Gulf Coast respond to rapidly changing conditions (both natural and human induced) , especially given the expectation for continued relative sea level rise acceleration?
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• Research Gap 5: Limited understanding of sediment transport processes and uncertainties in predicting future hydrodynamic conditions hampers the ability to project long-term coastal evolution. • Research Gap 6: There is a critical need to understand and project the future response of coastal landforms and embayments to changing climate and the con ditions under which they will no longer be able to keep pace with relative sea level rise.
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• Research Gap 11: There is an incomplete understanding of the vulnerability of different Gulf Coast communities to coastal dynamics, how coastal dynamics trig ger migration and relocation decisions, and how these decisions create feedbacks to the natural system. The Coupled Natural-Human Coastal System Physical drivers can cause not only modifications such as coastal erosion and landform migration, but also ecological alterations such as wetland loss and displacement of biological communities.
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: • Research Gap 12: Understanding how decisions about the built environment and human migration will affect the coupled natural-human coastal system is limited and can be furthered through integrated modeling. A RESEARCH AGENDA FOR THE FUTURE The independent, science-based National Academies' Gulf Research Program, established in 2013 as part of legal settlements with the companies involved in the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill, has grant-making capabilities that present a unique and timely opportunity for the creation of a sustained, holistic research program focused on the Gulf Coast coupled natural-human system.
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Management of a research and development program that includes long-term efforts that are Gulf Coast-wide and longitudinal, contains highly integrated modeling and observational components, and emphasizes interac tions and feedbacks between the natural and human coastal systems needs intentional, consistent, and careful administration. BARRIERS TO AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EFFECTIVE COMMUNICATION Addressing the research gaps will substantially advance understanding of the Gulf Coast coupled natural-human system and help identify salient feedbacks between humans and their environment.
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Financial constraints, information availability, time, and expertise represent a barrier to effective communication. These factors make it difficult for stakeholders to know about, obtain, find, work with, and interpret information and data in a way that allows them to incorporate science into decision making.
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Barrier 4. Limited financial and human resources, logistical complexity, and difficulty in identifying all relevant stakeholders, as well as skepticism, lack of understanding, or lack of trust by one or both parties, can make it difficult for practitioner stakeholders to communicate effectively with members of the general public, including vulnerable populations.
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Strong relationships, collaborations, and clear communication between scientists and stakeholders help produce scientific results that are most applicable to coastal decision making. To help facilitate the development of key relationships, fund ing programs could provide funds for engagement and knowledge-transfer activities and consider ways to incentivize collaborations between scientists and stakeholders via boundary organizations and other boundary spanners.
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