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From page 109... ... 112 The route-based risk calculator allows an agency to compare operator assault risks between routes. For each route, the risk of driver assault can be calculated based upon the risk factors along the route, in conjunction with region and population density risk factors. Read the entire page →
From page 110... ... Route-Based Risk Calculator 113 System Factor Region and Population Density Risk Factor Rank South • Metropolitan areas • Cities • Nonmetropolitan areas 5 5 3 1 Midwest • Metropolitan areas • Cities • Nonmetropolitan areas 2 3 2 1 West • Metropolitan areas • Cities • Nonmetropolitan areas 3 3 6 2 Northeast • Metropolitan areas • Cities • Nonmetropolitan areas 2 3 5 3 Route Factor Incident History Factor Risk Factor Rank <1 Aggravated Driver Assault/60 Months 11 1 Aggravated Driver Assault/60 Months 2 1 Aggravated Driver Assault/48 Months 3 1 Aggravated Driver Assault/36 Months 4 1 Aggravated Driver Assault/24 Months 5 1 Aggravated Driver Assault/18 Months 6 1 Aggravated Driver Assault/12 Months 7 <1 Simple Driver Assault/60 Months 1 1 Simple Driver Assault/60 Months 2 1 Simple Driver Assault/48 Months 3 1 Simple Driver Assault/36 Months 4 1 Simple Driver Assault/24 Months 5 1 Simple Driver Assault/18 Months 6 1 Simple Driver Assault/12 Months 7 <1 Minor Driver Incident/60 Months 1 1 Minor Driver Incident/60 Months 2 1 Minor Driver Incident/48 Months 3 1 Minor Driver Incident/36 Months 4 1 Minor Driver Incident/24 Months 5 1 Minor Driver Incident/18 Months 6 1 Minor Driver Incident/12 Months 7 <1 Generalized Driver Threat/60 Months 1 1 Generalized Driver Threat/60 Months 2 1 Generalized Driver Threat/48 Months 3 1 Generalized Driver Threat/36 Months 4 1 Generalized Driver Threat/24 Months 5 1 Generalized Driver Threat/18 Months 6 1 Generalized Driver Threat/12 Months 7 Table E-2. Look-up table: risk factor and risk factor rank. Read the entire page →
From page 111... ... 114 Tools and Strategies for Eliminating Assaults Against Transit Operators: Research Overview 1 Simple to Aggravated Driver Assault/18 Months 7 1 Simple to Aggravated Driver Assault /12 Months 7 <1 Minor Incident to Simple Driver Assault/60 Months 1 1 Minor Incident to Simple Driver Assault/60 Months 3 1 Minor Incident to Simple Driver Assault/48 Months 4 1 Minor Incident to Simple Driver Assault/36 Months 5 1 Minor Incident to Simple Driver Assault/24 Months 6 1 Minor Incident to Simple Driver Assault/18 Months 7 1 Minor Incident to Simple Driver Assault/12 Months 7 <1 Repeat Aggravated Driver Assault/60 Months 1 1 Repeat Aggravated Driver Assault/60 Months 3 1 Repeat Aggravated Driver Assault/48 Months 4 1 Repeat Aggravated Driver Assault/36 Months 5 1 Repeat Aggravated Driver Assault/24 Months 6 1 Repeat Aggravated Driver Assault/18 Months 7 1 Repeat Aggravated Driver Assault/12 Months 7 <1 Repeat Simple Driver Assault/60 Months 1 1 Repeat Simple Driver Assault/60 Months 3 1 Repeat Simple Driver Assault/48 Months 4 1 Repeat Simple Driver Assault/36 Months 5 1 Repeat Simple Driver Assault/24 Months 6 1 Repeat Simple Driver Assault/18 Months 7 1 Repeat Simple Driver Assault/12 Months 7 <1 Repeat Minor Driver Incident/60 Months 1 1 Repeat Minor Driver Incident/60 Months 3 1 Repeat Minor Driver Incident/48 Months 4 1 Repeat Minor Driver Incident/36 Months 5 1 Repeat Minor Driver Incident/24 Months 6 1 Repeat Minor Driver Incident/18 Months 7 1 Repeat Minor Driver Incident/12 Months 7 <1 Repeat Generalized Driver Threat/60 Months 1 1 Repeat Generalized Driver Threat/60 Months 3 1 Repeat Generalized Driver Threat/48 Months 4 1 Repeat Generalized Driver Threat/36 Months 5 1 Repeat Generalized Driver Threat/24 Months 6 1 Repeat Generalized Driver Threat/18 Months 7 1 Repeat Generalized Driver Threat/12 Months 7 <1 Repeat Aggravated Assault Threat of Driver/60 Months 1 1 Repeat Aggravated Assault Threat of Driver/60 Months 3 1 Repeat Aggravated Assault Threat of Driver/48 Months 4 1 Repeat Aggravated Assault Threat of Driver/36 Months 5 1 Repeat Aggravated Assault Threat of Driver/24 Months 6 1 Repeat Aggravated Assault Threat of Driver/18 Months 7 1 Repeat Aggravated Assault Threat of Driver/12 Months 7 Route Factor Incident History Factor Risk Factor Rank <1 Simple to Aggravated Driver Assault/60 Months 1 1 Simple to Aggravated Driver Assault/60 Months 3 1 Simple to Aggravated Driver Assault/48 Months 4 1 Simple to Aggravated Driver Assault/36 Months 5 1 Simple to Aggravated Driver Assault/24 Months 6 Table E-2. (Continued) Read the entire page →
From page 112... ... Route-Based Risk Calculator 115 Route Factor Incident History Factor Risk Factor Rank 1 Repeat Simple Assault Threat of Driver/18 Months 7 1 Repeat Simple Assault Threat of Driver/12 Months 7 <1 Repeat Minor Incident Threat of Driver/60 Months 1 1 Repeat Minor Incident Threat of Driver/60 Months 3 1 Repeat Minor Incident Threat of Driver/48 Months 4 1 Repeat Minor Incident Threat of Driver/36 Months 5 1 Repeat Minor Incident Threat of Driver/24 Months 6 1 Repeat Minor Incident Threat of Driver/18 Months 7 1 Repeat Minor Incident Threat of Driver/12 Months 7 Number of Bars/Crime Prone Spots Risk Factor Rank Bars, Nightclubs, and Entertainment: 1/block 1 Bars, Nightclubs, and Entertainment: 2/block 2 Bars, Nightclubs, and Entertainment: 3/block 3 Bars, Nightclubs, and Entertainment: 4/block 4 Bars, Nightclubs, and Entertainment: 5/block 5 Bars, Nightclubs, and Entertainment: 2 blocks with 5/block 6 Bars, Nightclubs, and Entertainment: 3 blocks with 5/block 7 Bars, Nightclubs, and Entertainment: 4 blocks with 5/block 8 High Incident Aggravated Assault Venues -- Taverns, Bars, Nightclubs, and Sports Bars/Stadiums High concentrations of liquor-licensed establishments within a oneblock area (>17/one-block radius) 7 High Incident Aggravated Assault Gang Areas 5 High Juvenile Crime Aggravated Assault Areas 1 Known Threats Risk Factor Rank 1 Known Threat of Aggravated Assault 1 2 Known Threats of Aggravated Assault 2 3 Known Threats of Aggravated Assault 3 4 Known Threats of Aggravated Assault 4 5 Known Threats of Aggravated Assault 5 Operation Factor Hours of Operation Risk Factor Rank Graveyard Shift -- 2:00 a.m. Read the entire page →
From page 113... ... 116 Tools and Strategies for Eliminating Assaults Against Transit Operators: Research Overview TERMINAL RISK RANK RISK FACTOR TERMINAL A ROUTE TERMINAL CHARACTERISTICS RISK FACTOR RANK REGION P OPULATION DENSITY INCIDENT HISTORY NUMBER OF BARS/CRIME PRONE SPOTS KNOWN THREAT HOURS OF OPERATION TERMINAL A RISK FACTOR TERMINAL B ROUTE TERMINAL CHARACTERISTICS RISK FACTOR RANK REGION POPULATION DENSITY INCIDENT HISTORY NUMBER OF BARS/CRIME PRONE SPOTS KNOWN THREAT HOURS OF OPERATION TERMINAL B RISK SCORE Total Route Terminal Risk Score = A + B TRANSFER STATION RISK RANK RISK FACTOR TRANSFER STATION 1 ROUTE TRANSFER STATION CHARACTERISTICS RISK FACTOR RANK REGION POPULATION DENSITY INCIDENT HISTORY NUMBER OF BARS/CRIME PRONE SPOTS KNOWN THREAT HOURS OF OPERATION TRANSFER STATION 1 RISK SCORE RISK FACTOR TRANSFER STATION N ROUTE TRANSFER STATION CHARACTERISTICS RISK FACTOR RANK REGION POPULATION DENSITY INCIDENT HISTORY NUMBER OF BARS/CRIME PRONE SPOTS KNOWN THREAT HOURS OF OPERATION TRANSFER STATION N RISK SCORE RISK SCORE Total Route Transfer Station Risk Score = 1 + 2 + … + n Table E-3. Terminal and transfer station risk rank template. Read the entire page →
From page 114... ... 2This table can be reproduced to cover as many routes as are in a transit agency's system – as denoted by n in the last row. Read the entire page →
From page 115... ... 3This table can be reproduced to cover as many routes as are in a transit agency's system – as denoted by n in the last row. Read the entire page →
From page 116... ... 119 Introduction In this Appendix, we briefly describe the risk factors for operator assault, along with the framework for calculating the overall risk for any given route within any given system. Appendices G and H provide detailed discussions of the underlying model and assumptions that drive the specific risk estimates for each factor. Read the entire page →
From page 117... ... 120 Tools and Strategies for Eliminating Assaults Against Transit Operators: Research Overview was not assaulted more than once in 2009) , the risk of aggravated assault by region is shown in Table F-1. Read the entire page →
From page 118... ... Operationalizing Risk Factors Identified in the Literature 121 for example, if the incident history for aggravated assault along a given route is less than 1 incident in 60 months (five years) , the risk of aggravated assault is 0.000. Read the entire page →
From page 119... ... 122 Tools and Strategies for Eliminating Assaults Against Transit Operators: Research Overview between bars and nightclubs and spatial proximity, and assuming data are available regarding the number and type of bars/nightclubs that are arrayed along any given bus route, Table F-3 provides the risk level for aggravated assault per year associated with the distribution of these establishments within a single city block. Thus, the risk of bus driver aggravated assault for a route with 1 bar, nightclub, etc. Read the entire page →
From page 120... ... Operationalizing Risk Factors Identified in the Literature 123 Framework for Calculating Overall Risk for Routes within a System As stated previously, the risk of driver assault(s) on a given route may be conceptualized as a tripartite function -- that is, route risk is affected by the potential for an assault (threat) Read the entire page →
From page 121... ... 124 Tools and Strategies for Eliminating Assaults Against Transit Operators: Research Overview Operation Factors Definitions & Factor Weighting/Annum Operations Hours of operation: 48% of bus driver assaults occur in evening/late night/early morning; 38% occur in the PM Peak Traffic Hour period; and 28% occur in school dismissal period.12 Again, we do not have temporal baseline data regarding these assault patterns, therefore, in the framework presented below, we again treat these as numerical ratings from 1 to 5 to account for hours of operation. State of Good Repair (SGR) Read the entire page →
From page 122... ... Operationalizing Risk Factors Identified in the Literature 125 Operation Factors Definitions & Factor Weighting/Annum enforcement policies. However, it has been stated that where fare payment processes occur off-board the transit vehicle, or the fare payment process is not otherwise identified with the operator, operator assaults caused by fare disputes are minimal.18 Training & Skill Level of Operators: It has been asserted that the prevention of an assault begins with the transit agency's hiring process. Read the entire page →
From page 123... ... 126 Tools and Strategies for Eliminating Assaults Against Transit Operators: Research Overview Operation Factors Definitions & Factor Weighting/Annum conducting exercises and putting procedures in place for handling bomb threats and suspicious objects are not costly undertakings and can be expected to reduce the risk of bus driver assault. However, there are no data to assess how much coordination and relationship reduce the risk of bus driver assault along any given route. Read the entire page →
From page 124... ... Operationalizing Risk Factors Identified in the Literature 127 estimate the potential for an assault, the probability that an assault will be successful, and the severity of an assault. Further, any countermeasure (operation factors) Read the entire page →
From page 125... ... 128 Tools and Strategies for Eliminating Assaults Against Transit Operators: Research Overview History (these Risk Factors are selected because they are the ones for which the Project Team has the best data) .27 Table F-6 illustrates these three factors. Read the entire page →
From page 126... ... Operationalizing Risk Factors Identified in the Literature 129 Step 2: Probability that the assault is successful, P = 1 (worst case) The risk is 0.65 * Read the entire page →
From page 127... ... 130 Tools and Strategies for Eliminating Assaults Against Transit Operators: Research Overview Threat (T) , Vulnerability (V) Read the entire page →
From page 128... ... Operationalizing Risk Factors Identified in the Literature 131 Threat (T) , Vulnerability (V) Read the entire page →
From page 129... ... 132 Tools and Strategies for Eliminating Assaults Against Transit Operators: Research Overview • Under the maximum effectiveness score (i.e., 15) , each risk component would be reduced by 80 percent30 Based on these assumptions, off-board fare collection has an estimated effectiveness score 5, so the projected reduction in assault likelihood is 0.8 × (5/15) Read the entire page →
From page 130... ... Operationalizing Risk Factors Identified in the Literature 133 Using national data on aggravated and simple assault rates, by region and population density, as well as data from a variety of sources covering different cities and states, the estimated risk of bus driver assaults and other behaviors are identified for various categories of risk factors (e.g., system factors, route factors, and operation factors) Read the entire page →
From page 131... ... 134 Introduction This Appendix operationalizes the 20 factors identified that may impact the risk of driver assault(s) within a given transit system and/or along any given route within that system. Read the entire page →
From page 132... ... Transit Driver Assault Risk Factors 135 density show distinctly different patterns as discussed below. In 2009, there were 806,843 total reported aggravated assaults committed in the United States.31 • Region within the country where the transit system is situated – in the four regions of the US, in descending order, the number of aggravated assaults was greatest in the South and least in the Northeast: – South – 359,045 (44.5%) Read the entire page →
From page 133... ... 136 Tools and Strategies for Eliminating Assaults Against Transit Operators: Research Overview risk of driver assault is still lower than in the South, but the likelihood of driver assault is still categorized as being Very Low/Unlikely based upon regional location. Again, while the absolute number of assaults that occur in the South is large compared to the other three regions, when considered on a per capita basis, the risk of driver assault in the South is greater, but not dramatically greater. Read the entire page →
From page 134... ... Transit Driver Assault Risk Factors 137 on the average, about 9.5 percent lived in Cities outside of Metropolitan areas and 19.3 percent lived in Nonmetropolitan areas, although, as noted above, there are regional differences between different urban clusters and rural areas. We then find Cities and Nonmetropolitan area population by region to be: – South-Cities – 10,676,737 – South-Nonmetropolitan – 17,503,975 – West-Cities – 2,421,875 – West-Nonmetropolitan – 4,843,375 – Midwest-Cities – 5,322,705 – Midwest-Nonmetropolitan – 10,645,409 – Northeast-Cities – 2,738,203 – Northeast-Nonmetropolitan – 5,476,40737 We now adjust for per capita exposure by population for these regions to derive risk factors associated with Cities and Nonmetropolitan Areas by region. Read the entire page →
From page 135... ... 138 Tools and Strategies for Eliminating Assaults Against Transit Operators: Research Overview programs or incident reporting procedures. However, from our perspective, the identified operation factors are clearly at the discretion of management in terms of implementation, whereas the system factors identified above are exogenous to the system and are not subject to management discretion. Read the entire page →
From page 136... ... Transit Driver Assault Risk Factors 139 – 1 Aggravated Driver Assault/36 months 0.068 – 1 Aggravated Driver Assault/24 months 0.136 – 1 Aggravated Driver Assault/18 months 0.272 – 1 Aggravated Driver Assault/year 0.544 – 2+ Aggravated Driver Assaults/year 0.999 Assume the likelihood of Simple Driver Assault doubles as the reported frequency of simple assault (on either a driver or a passenger) on the route increases: – <1 Simple Driver Assault/60 months 0.000 – 1 Simple Driver Assault/60 months 0.017 – 1 Simple Driver Assault/48 months 0.034 – 1 Simple Driver Assault/36 months 0.068 – 1 Simple Driver Assault/24 months 0.136 – 1 Simple Driver Assault/18 months 0.272 – 1 Simple Driver Assault/year 0.544 – 2+ Simple Driver Assaults/year 0.999 Assume the likelihood of repeat crimes doubles as the reported frequency of repeat crimes on the route increases: – <1 Repeat Crime/60 months 0.000 – 1 Repeat Crime/60 months 0.017 – 1 Repeat Crime/48 months 0.034 – 1 Repeat Crime/36 months 0.068 – 1 Repeat Crime/24 months 0.136 – 1 Repeat Crime/18 months 0.272 – 1 Repeat Crime/year 0.544 – 2+ Repeat Crime/year 0.999 Assume the likelihood of minor incidents doubles as the reported frequency of minor incidents on the route increases: – <1 minor incident/60 months 0.000 – 1 minor incident/60 months 0.017 – 1 minor incident/48 months 0.034 – 1 minor incident/36 months 0.068 – 1 minor incident/24 months 0.136 – 1 minor incident/18 months 0.272 – 1 minor incident/year 0.544 – 2+ minor incidents/year 0.999 Assume the likelihood of threats doubles as the reported frequency of threat on the route increases: – <1 threat/60 months 0.000 – 1 threat/60 months 0.017 – 1 threat/48 months 0.034 – 1 threat/36 months 0.068 – 1 threat/24 months 0.136 – 1 threat/18 months 0.272 – 1 threat/year 0.544 – 2+ threats/year 0.999 To address the relationships between threats, minor incidents, repeat crimes, simple assaults and aggravated assaults, we make the following assumptions: – As the frequency of simple assaults increases, the likelihood of an aggravated assault doubles: � <1 Simple Driver Assault/60 months = 0.000 likelihood of Aggravated Driver Assault/ 60 months Tools and Strategies for Eliminating Assaults Against Transit Operators, Volume 1: Research Overview Copyright National Academy of Sciences. Read the entire page →
From page 137... ... 140 Tools and Strategies for Eliminating Assaults Against Transit Operators: Research Overview � 1 Simple Driver Assault/60 months = 0.034 probability of Aggravated Driver Assault/ 60 months � 1 Simple Driver Assault/48 months = 0.068 probability of Aggravated Driver Assault/ 48 months � 1 Simple Driver Assault/36 months = 0.136 probability of Aggravated Driver Assault/ 36 months � 1 Simple Driver Assault/24 months = 0.272 probability of Aggravated Driver Assault/ 24 months � 1 Simple Driver Assault/18 months = 0.544 probability of Aggravated Driver Assault/ 18 months � 1 Simple Driver Assault/year = 0.99 probability of Aggravated Driver Assault/year – As the frequency of minor incidents increases, the likelihood of simple assaults doubles: � <1 minor incident/60 months = 0.000 likelihood of Simple Driver Assault/60 months � 1 minor incident/60 months = 0.034 probability of Simple Driver Assault/60 months � 1 minor incident/48 months = 0.068 probability of Simple Driver Assault/48 months � 1 minor incident/36 months = 0.136 probability of Simple Driver Assault/36 months � 1 minor incident/24 months = 0.272 probability of Simple Driver Assault/24 months � 1 minor incident/18 months = 0.544 probability of Simple Driver Assault/18 months � 1 minor incident/year = 0.99 probability of Simple Driver Assault/year – In the case of repeat crimes, the frequency is related to the type of crime committed such that it follows the likelihood estimates stated previously, e.g., a repeated Aggravated Assault adopts the pattern for Aggravated Assault, i.e., each incident doubles the likelihood. – In the case of threats, the frequency is related to the type of threat made such that it follows the likelihood estimates stated previously, e.g., a threat of Aggravated Assault adopts the pattern for Aggravated Assault, i.e., each threat of Aggravated Assault doubles the likelihood in that period. Read the entire page →
From page 138... ... Transit Driver Assault Risk Factors 141 and social clubs have lower levels of reported violence. Stadia, arenas, sporting grounds, and concert halls are conducive to aggravated assault. Read the entire page →
From page 139... ... 142 Tools and Strategies for Eliminating Assaults Against Transit Operators: Research Overview Further, taverns or liquor stores in a Hot Spot Area of tavern crime are likely to be in relatively affluent singles neighborhoods, close to many other places holding a liquor license as well as to a transit stop.47 – High Incident Bars and Nightclubs � Similarly, crime hot spot bars and nightclubs tend to be trendy nightlife areas and often located in areas with a concentration of liquor licenses (in this study, averaging over 17 licenses in a one-block radius -- 1/8 of a mile) .48 – High Incident Sports Venues � Sports venues with high incidents of aggravated assault tend to be associated with areas of concentrations of liquor licenses or taverns.49 – High Incident Gang Areas � The National Gang Intelligence Center (NGIC) Read the entire page →
From page 140... ... Transit Driver Assault Risk Factors 143 – High Incident Prostitution and Vice Areas � While areas of high or frequent prostitution activity are also frequently areas of high incidents of aggravated assault, data from studies in the late 1990s indicate that most of those assaults occur with the victims being the prostitutes themselves.54 Further, there is an association with gang activity in that increasingly, gangs have become involved in pimping or running prostitution or commercial vice activities.55 Thus, it appears that the likelihood of assault on bus drivers in high incident areas of prostitution and criminal vice is more related to the overall level gang related assault in the area than the fact of prostitution and vice. – High Incident Drug Trade Areas � Street gangs, outlaw motorcycle gangs (OMGs) Read the entire page →
From page 141... ... 144 Tools and Strategies for Eliminating Assaults Against Transit Operators: Research Overview threat – 84% of aggravated assaults have been preceded by verbal threats.59 While it would be natural to assume, therefore, that we could simply use this information to adjust the likelihood of assault on bus drivers, this would be incorrect since we do not have baseline data for the history of verbal threats vis-à-vis assaults, nor do we have any temporal data regarding whether the verbal threat occurred immediately prior to the assault or at some other point in time and then was subsequently acted upon. Thus, in our risk calculation framework we adopt a numerical rating for threats on a scale of 1 to 5. Read the entire page →
From page 142... ... 145 Executive Summary A risk analysis model is developed to assess the risk of driver assault(s) on a specific route. Read the entire page →
From page 143... ... 146 Tools and Strategies for Eliminating Assaults Against Transit Operators: Research Overview Equation (4) can be used to assess the risk of bus driver assault(s) Read the entire page →
From page 144... ... Framework for Route Risk Analysis of Driver Assaults 147 Where: Ti(CT1, CT2, . Read the entire page →
From page 145... ... Abbreviations and acronyms used without definitions in TRB publications: A4A Airlines for America AAAE American Association of Airport Executives AASHO American Association of State Highway Officials AASHTO American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials ACI–NA Airports Council International–North America ACRP Airport Cooperative Research Program ADA Americans with Disabilities Act APTA American Public Transportation Association ASCE American Society of Civil Engineers ASME American Society of Mechanical Engineers ASTM American Society for Testing and Materials ATA American Trucking Associations CTAA Community Transportation Association of America CTBSSP Commercial Truck and Bus Safety Synthesis Program DHS Department of Homeland Security DOE Department of Energy EPA Environmental Protection Agency FAA Federal Aviation Administration FAST Fixing America's Surface Transportation Act (2015) FHWA Federal Highway Administration FMCSA Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration FRA Federal Railroad Administration FTA Federal Transit Administration HMCRP Hazardous Materials Cooperative Research Program IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers ISTEA Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 ITE Institute of Transportation Engineers MAP-21 Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (2012) Read the entire page →
From page 146... ... Tools and Strategies for Elim inating A ssaults A gainst Transit O perators, V olum e 1: Research O verview TCRP Research Report 193 TRB TRA N SPO RTATIO N RESEA RCH BO A RD 500 Fifth Street, N W W ashington, D C 20001 A D D RESS SERV ICE REQ U ESTED ISBN 978-0-309-39024-8 9 7 8 0 3 0 9 3 9 0 2 4 8 9 0 0 0 0 Tools and Strategies for Eliminating Assaults Against Transit Operators, Volume 1: Research Overview Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Read the entire page →

From page 109...

... 112 The route-based risk calculator allows an agency to compare operator assault risks between routes. For each route, the risk of driver assault can be calculated based upon the risk factors along the route, in conjunction with region and population density risk factors.