Understanding Narratives for National Security Proceedings of a Workshop (2018) / Chapter Skim
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6 Summative Comments
Pages 35-40
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From page 35... ...
REMARKS FROM KAREN MONAGHAN Karen Monaghan, Central Intelligence Agency (retired) , explained that, although she has never focused directly on the study of narrative, she has always considered understanding cultural narratives to be a crucial component of intelligence analysis.
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From page 36... ...
Answers to these types of questions, she argued, could be helpful in countering violent extremism. In closing, Monaghan suggested that narrative research could also be an asset to analysts trying to supplement the predictions available from political polling outcomes, pointing to cases in which polling prior to an event did not forecast the actual outcome, such as Brexit or the 2016 U.S.
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From page 37... ...
He noted as well that analytical work is guided by a set of core principles known as the Analytic Tradecraft Standards,1 which require analysts to bring objectivity to their work and to express findings in a clear and logical way. Kerbel mentioned two areas in which narrative could be particularly useful.
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From page 38... ...
In closing, Kerbel suggested that narrative can be especially useful to analysts because it introduces a more human element into their thinking. He noted that analysts tend to observe humans from a distance, as if they were a "more physical kind of particles almost." If analysts could use narrative effectively as an analytic tool, he argued, it might help them think in more human terms, which might in turn improve the way they observe and understand others.
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From page 39... ...
Another participant added that she recently had used a multilingual topic model to examine the French, English, and Kinyarwanda narratives from the Rwandan genocide. Running these types of computational linguistic models, she explained, can help researchers see the bigger picture that exists within the data, and qualitative methods can then be used to further clarify those findings.
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From page 40... ...
Monaghan and Kerbel agreed that this idea has merit, but noted both time and bureaucratic constraints, as well as concerns about the potential release of classified information, as reasons why analysts do not often collaborate with outside researchers. In the world of intelligence analysis, they added, the rewards are greater for those who focus on analytical tradecraft rather than timeconsuming research.
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