Future Water Priorities for the Nation Directions for the U.S. Geological Survey Water Mission Area (2018) / Chapter Skim
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2 Water Science and Resources Challenges for the Next 25 Years
2 Water Science and Resources Challenges for the Next 25 Years
Pages 17-36
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tasked the committee to identify the highest-priority water science and resources questions for the United States over the next 25 years. As it considered this quarter-century perspective, the committee spent considerable time deliberating about whether the pressing water issues of today will still be relevant in 25 years or whether an entirely new set of water science and resources questions will emerge.
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These priority questions are presented in the last section of this chapter. WATER SCIENCE AND RESOURCES CHALLENGES Understanding the Role of Water in the Earth System The water cycle is of central importance in Earth system functions and is a primary driver of energy and biogeochemical cycles (e.g., Eagleson, 1986)
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Historically, hydrologic simulation has focused on individual components of the hydrologic cycle (e.g., groundwater models, surface water models) ; consequently, an urgent need exists for improved, integrated models of water systems (Davies and Simonovic, 2011)
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Integrated modeling for water will need to link groundwater and surface water (Refsgaard et al., 2010) ; provide measurements of water quantity and quality, landatmosphere feedbacks, and precipitation; and represent human decisions explicitly (Davies and Simovic, 2011; Jaeger et al., 2017)
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. Changes in climate that result in warmer temperatures, stronger storms, more droughts, and changes to water chemistry can further alter water quality (Georakakos et al., 2014)
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A sound science base can inform management decisions regarding aquatic ecosystems that have to respond to changing flow regimes and water quality (Vörösmarty et al., 2010; NRC, 2015)
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. Extreme weather can have direct effects on soil moisture, river flows, and groundwater, as well as degradation of water quality.
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While it is impossible to foresee all the advances in techniques and equipment that might occur over the next 25 years, great gains in the ability to understand and predict water quantity (surface and subsurface) , quality, flow directions and rates, and residence times have come from observations related to satellite-based or airborne platforms, shallow-earth geophysical techniques, miniaturization of sensors, and data acquisition in remote settings.
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. Sensors that measure light absorbance can indirectly measure other water quality parameters, such as dissolved organic carbon and algae (Wymore et al., 2018)
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(2015) , traditional approaches to water resources planning have centered on water quantity, while water quality assessments and the effects of human activity over time are assessed independently.
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; degrade groundwater quantity and quality through excessive drawdown, induced infiltration, reduced recharge, and multiple contaminant sources; and mobilize sediment. The expansion and intensification of agricultural land use has negatively influenced water quality at local, regional (Hansen et al., 2018)
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coli, per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) , and thermal pollution from power plants, municipalities, and reservoir releases all affect water quality in freshwater systems across the nation.
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. This is particularly true in many rural areas or areas where there is currently an adequate water supply to meet all existing needs including human consumption, irrigation, and power generation (Dieter et al., 2018)
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. Changing water quantity and degrading water quality are already presenting severe challenges to water resources management and are anticipated to accelerate as climate continues to change.
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It is imperative to continue advances in the ability to make useful multi-decade forecasts that can enable informed management of future risks to water supplies, water quality, and risks from floods and droughts.
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In the coming decades and centuries, the ability to predict the future climate trajectory rests on the ability to predict the response of land ecosystems to carbon dioxide fertilization and warmer temperatures, which is likely to enhance ecosystem productivity (Bonan and Doney, 2018)
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Such short-term forecasting uses hydrologic models, which can assimilate current observations in real-time (e.g., precipitation, river levels, snow water equivalent, groundwater levels, water quality, water use) and make appropriate allowance for the loss of such information in extreme events (Young, 2002; Cloke and Pappenberger, 2009)
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Institutional resilience (the ability of an institution to adapt successfully to perturbations) is a concept that has been used to describe the ability of water decision-making and management bodies to create flexible solutions to new water resources challenges.
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. Water quality may directly affect health through consumption of unsafe drinking water.
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. From uplands to lowlands, water science challenges include measuring, monitoring, and understanding water quantity and quality needed to maintain the structure and function of ecosystems and maintaining ecosystem services in the face of environmental change.
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