Future Directions for the U.S. Geological Survey's Energy Resources Program (2018) / Chapter Skim
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2 Projected Energy Trends and Geologically Based Energy Challenges
2 Projected Energy Trends and Geologically Based Energy Challenges
Pages 25-44
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, the committee summarizes the nation's current geologically based energy challenges after reviewing current and projected energy trends in the context of the national and international energy outlooks. GLOBAL ENERGY OUTLOOK An affordable, secure, and sustainable energy supply is the cornerstone of a strong economy and personal well-being.
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. Oil Despite efforts by several governments and international organizations to promote low-carbon energy sources, fossil fuels -- and in particular oil and natural gas -- are projected to continue to dominate global energy supply through 2040 (BP, 2017; EIA, 2017a; ExxonMobil, 2017)
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Renewable Energy Cumulative global installed capacity of renewable electricity (e.g., electricity from geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and hydroelectric sources) grew by 9.1% in 2016, continuing the steady 7.5% compound annual growth rate from 2006 to 2016.
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. Unlocking the potential of geothermal energy resources requires new technologies and approaches to reduce the exploration risk related to conventional geothermal resources as well as to support the successful creation of new subsurface reservoirs in EGS.
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. a Note: dispersed rare earth metals are mostly recovered as by-products of other primary metal production.
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as it loses market share to low-cost natural gas, the falling costs of renewable energy sources, and the domestic regulatory environment. Renewables (mainly solar and wind)
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GEOLOGICALLY BASED ENERGY CHALLENGES As directed by the committee's statement of task, the next sections summarize the nation's geologically based energy-related challenges identified by the committee.
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The ERP may only contribute to addressing specific aspects of them. Nonetheless, a broad, inclusive view of the various geologically based energy challenges provides important contextual information about the current energy landscape in the United States.
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As the nation's primary public source for energy resource assessments, the ERP has the challenge of remaining sufficiently technically engaged so as to be able to monitor advances in the industry and to be responsive to rapid changes. Challenge #2: Environmentally and Socially Responsible Exploration and Development of Geologic Energy Resources Developing geologic resources requires access to and careful management of surface lands and the prevention and mitigation of potential environmental impacts.
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The Environmental Protection Agency has established minimum requirements for underground disposal of produced waters, but disposal practices to meet these regulations vary regionally. They include surface discharge and treatment of produced water, reinjection of produced water, and induced seismicity protocols.
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. The United States accounted for 35% of total global water withdrawn for power generation and primary energy production in 2010 (IEA, 2016)
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. Given water scarcity issues in some areas, produced waters may represent an alternative water source for hydraulic fracturing, or makeup water for EGS (although the latter is untested and will depend on the geochemical compatibility between the produced fluids and geothermal formations [Clark et al., 2011]
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This formation is in hydraulic communication with faults in the crystalline basement. Natural geologic processes have accumulated stress on these faults, and when fluid pressures increase due to fluid injection, the faults can slip (Keranen et al., 2014; Weingarten et al., 2015)
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Understanding the risks and managing the hazards associated with induced seismicity requires development of coupled geomechanical and hydrological models that account for the effects of increased fluid pressures. The relationship between induced seismicity and the rate, volumes, and depth of injection of produced waters are being evaluated (e.g., Weingarten et al., 2015; Langenbruch and Zoback, 2016; Hincks et al., 2018)
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ERP expertise in geochemistry, structural geology, and detailed stratigraphic analysis would complement DOE capabilities; ERP collaboration with the DOE might provide more detailed geologic characterization of subsurface reservoirs that may be suitable for carbon sequestration. Subsurface Storage of Radioactive Waste Because the energy density of uranium is thousands of time greater than that of fossil fuels,15 the full lifecycle volumes of wastes (including atmospheric emissions)
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After decades of study, the DOE submitted a license application in 2008 to receive authorization to begin construction of a repository for high-level radioactive wastes at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. This process was stopped shortly thereafter and the DOE subsequently began to implement a consent-based process to select and evaluate sites and license facilities, reversing previous efforts to select a high-level waste repository based predominantly on engineering studies (NEA, 2017)
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Understanding the economic and environmental tradeoffs that may occur as additional public or private land access is granted to develop new geologic energy resources is challenging as is recognizing new issues that arise with the land-use requirements associated with growing alternative energy production. Challenge #3: Technical and Economic Barriers to New Resource Development Processes Technical innovation is also required for more efficient and responsible development of existing geologic energy sources: for example, to improve resource recovery, mitigation of environment impacts, and waste disposal.
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. The Low Renewable Technology Cost scenario (bottom row)
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are needed to accommodate sources of variable power generation sources such as wind and solar. Energy storage options include above ground systems such as pumped hydroelectric storage (water moved to higher elevation using solar or wind energy generated during peak production, and then drained to lower elevations to produce energy during off-peak times)
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