Visions into Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022 A Midterm Review (2018) / Chapter Skim
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3 Assessment of Current Progress vis--vis Vision and Voyages and Guidance for the Rest of the Decade
3 Assessment of Current Progress vis--vis Vision and Voyages and Guidance for the Rest of the Decade
Pages 53-80
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From page 53... ...
and National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine reports, and assesses NASA's progress toward realizing these strategies, goals, and priorities and effectiveness in maintaining programmatic balance. This chapter recommends actions that could be taken to optimize the science value of the planetary science program, and provides guidance about implementation of the decadal survey's recommended mission portfolio and decision rules for the remaining years of the current decadal survey.
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From page 54... ...
While there is a slightly reduced budget relative to what the decadal survey assumed occurred during the first half of the decade, NASA initiated both Mars 2020 (reduced scope MAX-C) and Europa Clipper (reduced scope JEO)
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From page 55... ...
F inding: This analysis was challenging, since the PSD does not track spending on R&A and technology in the way the decadal survey defined them. This can create misunderstandings within the science community.
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FY FY FY FY FY FY 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 PSD Research and Analysis Research and Analysis 141.4 177.7 156.5 174.8 176.7 204.4 Technology Programs 21.1 18.0 19.6 18.4 21.4 18.2 R&A Subtotal 162.5 195.7 176.1 193.2 198.1 222.6 PSD Technology (see breakout below) Research and Analysis 21.1 18.0 19.6 18.4 21.4 18.2 Advanced Technology 73.5 97.0 63.2 40.6 20.1 53.1 Mars Exploration Program 2.5 5.0 4.0 4.0 7.0 23.1 Near Earth Object Observations 0.5 0.9 1.0 Europa/Outer Planets 0.0 16.2 17.4 7.4 Discovery Futures 2.3 19.2 1.5 29.3 8.1 9.8 New Frontiers 9.4 7.2 Lunar Quest 4.0 2.8 2.8 Icy Satellite Technology 25.0 Technology Subtotal 103.4 142.0 107.2 92.8 84.4 144.8 PSD Technology Support and Infrastructure Planetary Science Program Support (for technology)
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0.5 Advanced Energy Conversion (AEC) 7.0 Near Earth Object Detectors 6.0 Mars Helicopter 6.5 Planetary Protection 0.3 Technology Planning/Studies 0.5 Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD)
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2.0 Subtotal 2.3 19.2 1.5 29.3 8.1 9.8 Technology within the New Frontiers Program Sample Technology for Comet Surface Sample Return 0.9 Sample Technology for Advanced Pointing Imaging Camera 1.2 Navigation Doppler Lidar Sensor 0.8 Atmospheric Constant Exploration Systems for Planetary Probes 1.0 Tunable Laser Spectrometer for Saturn Probe and Venus In Situ Explorer 0.9 Concepts Planetary Object Geophysical Observer for Asteroid Exploration 0.8 Micro-electrical Mechanical Systems Micro-concentrator for Low-Intensity 1.0 Low-Temperature Photovoltaics Venus Entry Probe Prototype 0.5 Subtotal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.4 7.2 Technology within the Icy Satellite Program Concepts for Ocean Worlds Life Detection Technology (COLDTech) 20.9 PSTAR 4.1 Subtotal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 R ecommendation: The next decadal survey committee should work with NASA to better understand the categorization and tracking of the budget for each of the research and analysis program elements, specifically providing insight into the budget for (1)
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From page 59... ...
NOTE: PSD, Planetary Science Division. capability to address larger challenges like sample return missions and outer planet exploration" (NRC, 2011, p.
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This mission was conceived to have significant scientific return in addition to being the first step in a campaign to return samples, but it also meant an implicit commitment beyond the time frame of the decadal survey. The second priority mission (flagship)
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From page 61... ...
This lack of balance undermines the compelling comparative planetology investigations recommended by the decadal survey, particularly for the terrestrial planets. The discovery of numerous Earth-size and Neptune-size exoplanets provides even greater urgency to initiate new missions to Venus and the ice giants.
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62 VISIONS INTO VOYAGES FOR PLANETARY SCIENCE IN THE DECADE 2013-2022 FIGURE 3.3 Planetary missions active, in development, or recently completed. SOURCE: Courtesy of NASA.
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From page 63... ...
As recommended by the decadal survey, this AO allowed all solar system bodies, except Earth and the Sun, and did not restrict the type of complete mission to be proposed, although it did not list space-based telescopes as one of the goals of the Discovery program as recommended in Vision and Voyages. The AO cost cap was $450 million in FY 2015 dollars for phases A though D, not including the cost of the Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV)
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From page 64... ...
Since the first two missions were directed, 14 Discovery missions have been approved for an overall program average of 1 mission every 24 months -- the recommended average in Vision and Voyages. While this is overall a good record, the recommendation in Vision and Voyages was created because the AO releases in the previous decade did not meet the targeted 24-month cadence, and in the present decade the rate will also not meet that recommended by the decadal survey.
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From page 65... ...
Finding: Although two Discovery missions were selected from the 2014 AO, the next AO will not be issued until 2019. NASA will not have met the Vision and Voyages goal of a Discovery AO release every 24 months unless three missions are selected from the two potential future AOs.
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From page 66... ...
On the basis of their science value and projected costs, the committee identified seven candidate New Frontiers missions for the decade 2013-2022, with no priority among them: Comet Surface Sample Return, Io Observer, Lunar Geophysical Network, Lunar South Pole-Aitken Basin Sample Return, Saturn Probe, Trojan Tour and Rendezvous, and Venus In Situ Explorer. The decadal survey chose five candidates for the New Frontiers 4 opportunity with no relative priority: Comet Surface Sample Return, Lunar South Pole-Aitken Basin Sample Return, Saturn Probe, Trojan Tour and Rendezvous,
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From page 67... ...
Its visible imaging, shortwave infrared (SWIR) 3 However, the CAPS co-chair reported the principal messages he received from the CAPS membership to the Space Studies Board and stated that "Enceladus and Titan are significant elements of the decadal survey, and their inclusion is consistent with the overall scientific priorities discussed in the survey report." 4 In 2007 the National Academies produced the report New Opportunities in Solar System Exploration: An Evaluation of the New Frontiers Announcement of Opportunity, which evaluated options prior to the release of NASA's New Frontiers 3 announcement of opportunity.
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From page 68... ...
. R ecommendation: If scientific discoveries or external factors compel NASA to reassess decadal survey priorities, such as the list of New Frontiers missions, NASA should vet these changes via the Commit tee on Astrobiology and Planetary Science and allow for input from the community via assessment and analysis groups as time permits.
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From page 69... ...
Preliminary design review (PDR) is planned for August 2018 and Confirmation Review is scheduled for October 2018, after which more firm cost estimates for the project will become available.6 Finding: Europa was called out as a very high priority target in the last two planetary decadal surveys because of its high astrobiological potential.
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From page 70... ...
The planetary midterm committee heard briefings about the lander during its study, and in June 2018 the committee contacted the head of NASA's PSD and asked for the latest releasable information on the Europa lander study and any releasable cost estimate. In response, NASA provided a five-page summary of the Europa lander architecture representing the latest information, and indicated that there is no releasable cost estimate for the mission concept.7 The midterm committee, although it lacks an official cost estimate, believes the mission cost to be in the multiple billions of dollars range.
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From page 71... ...
mission, the results of the NASA Europa lander studies should be evaluated and prioritized within the overall PSD program balance in the next decadal survey. Ice Giants Decadal Findings: Vision and Voyages outlined nine prioritized science objectives for an ice giant mission including an orbiter and atmospheric probe.
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R ecommendation: NASA should perform a new mission study based on the original ice giants science objectives identified in Vision and Voyages to determine if a more broad-based set of science objectives can be met within a $2 billion cost cap. CONTINUING MISSIONS Decadal Findings: Before suggesting new missions, Vision and Voyages encouraged NASA to "continue missions currently in flight, subject to .
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From page 73... ...
The CATE process is used by decadal surveys to provide an independent, standardized process to produce a figure-of-merit for technical and cost risk that aids in science prioritization. CATE is used to forecast the potential cost of the final system as built, which may undergo multiple iterations and may be very different than what was initially conceived.
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An important point for this to happen in mission development is before Key Decision Point-C. Recommendation: NASA's Planetary Science Division should implement an Independent Cost and Risk Review Process at Mission Definition/System Definition Review (Key Decision Point-B, or KDP-B)
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This assessment should be finished before the next decadal survey is significantly under way. The Deep Space Network Decadal Findings: Vision and Voyages recognized the DSN as a critical component of the solar system exploration program.
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. Vision and Voyages recommended that "every sample return mission flown by NASA should explicitly include in the estimate of its cost to the agency the full costs required for appropriate initial sample curation," and put forward the establishment of a single advisory group to provide input on all aspects of extraterrestrial sample curation (NRC, 2011, p.
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program to advance sample analysis techniques and develop analytical capabilities for future sample return missions. The recent report on the reorganization of R&A funding (Review of the Restructured Research and Analysis Programs of NASA's Planetary Science Division)
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Recommendation: In order to enable the excitement of space exploration to be fully communicated to the broader public, the STEM Activation program should work with all NASA planetary missions to define science content and program implementation. NASA's Planetary Science Division should link education and outreach activities directly to the missions that are providing the science content for them, interfacing through the principal investigators for competed missions, and through the project scientists for directed missions.
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The PSD has sought to develop long-reaching strategies and joint missions not possible within any single country. The committee notes that missions under study by potential partners are not substitutes for actually meeting the science goals established in the decadal survey.
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2017. Review of the Restructured Research and Analysis Programs of NASA's Planetary Science Division.
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