Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades The Seventh Biennial Review - 2018 (2018) / Chapter Skim
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6 A CERP Mid-Course Assessment: Supporting Sound Decision Making for the Future Everglades
6 A CERP Mid-Course Assessment: Supporting Sound Decision Making for the Future Everglades
Pages 159-188
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From page 159... ...
Such an effort would better inform current and future project and systemwide program planning efforts and would assure decision makers and the public that, nearly two decades after inception, the CERP is still on track and the best restoration investments are being pursued. CERP agencies have not acted on the NASEM (2016)
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From page 160... ...
As discussed in Chapter 3, no recent individual project planning effort captures the systemwide outcomes of the CERP projects concurrently in planning, and most projects have failed to assess project perfor mance under changing future climate conditions. It is critically important that the CERP be robust across a large range of tem perature, rainfall, sea level, and population regimes that may drive the system as restoration is completed.
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From page 161... ...
The committee remains impressed by, and supportive of, the current pace of construction and project planning efforts and expects the agencies to continue CERP implementation efforts while a systemwide CERP assessment is pursued. By mid-2019, tentatively selected plans will have been developed for all of the major central CERP storage projects east, west, south, and north of Lake Okeechobee, with the exception of the Lake Belt in-ground reservoirs.
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From page 162... ...
This section presents recent information on two areas of change affecting the CERP -- climate change and advances in understanding CERP storage -- and their potential implications to restoration planning. Understanding Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Many aspects of global climate are changing (USGCRP, 2017)
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From page 163... ...
. Incorporation of updated sealevel rise considerations into large-scale ecosystem restoration planning could have substantial implications for planned restoration actions.
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From page 164... ...
Such future changes challenge both the human system and the natural system. The following sections present three examples of how sea-level change and other climate fac tors can result in transitions within the natural system that may influence CERP outcomes, focusing on effects on wetland peat, northern estuaries, and Florida Bay.
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From page 165... ...
. In addition, because the Everglades is phosphorus-limited, increased supply of phosphorus from Florida Bay associated with sea-level rise and coastal storm surge events could stimulate plant and periphyton production and therefore the accumulation of soil organic matter (Childers et al., 2006; Rivera-Monroy et al., 2007)
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From page 166... ...
This increase in salt-tolerant species such as red mangrove shows that gradual shift can occur in response to modest rates of sea-level rise. However, if increased salinity due to sea-level rise or storm surges impairs salt-intolerant vegetation and compromises the integrity of soil at a rate that exceeds the ability of salt-tolerant vegetation to occupy this space, then peat collapse and ponding can occur in the freshwater wetlands (Chambers et al., 2015; Wanless and Vlaswinkel, 2005)
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From page 167... ...
A CERP Mid-Course Assessment 167 FIGURE 6-2 Aerial view of open water "pothole" ponds spread throughout a sawgrass marsh surrounded by mangroves in northwest Cape Sable, Everglades National Park. These ponds are thought to have been formed through collapsing peat driven by saltwater intrusion.
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From page 168... ...
The study points to the need for increasing flows in Shark River Slough, with particular attention during the dry season to reduce salinity intrusion and mitigate peat collapse. It is not clear, however, how long
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From page 169... ...
One goal of the CERP is to enhance the spatial extent of oyster reefs in the Caloosahatchee Estuary, St. Lucie Estuary, Loxahatchee Estuary, and Lake Worth Lagoon.
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From page 170... ...
Sea-level rise will affect the ability of certain locations in the South Florida ecosystem to continue to support oyster reefs. Analysis and assessment are needed to predict the magnitude of effects, and the results should be used to inform expectations regarding oyster growth and survival under restoration conditions.
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From page 171... ...
Evidence suggests that South Florida estuarine geology and biota are sensitive to changes in climate, with ecological regime shifts across Florida Bay and Biscayne Bay in the mid-1950s and early-1960s and across the
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From page 172... ...
The potential geomorphic change influencing bay connectivity needs to be better understood to grasp the inter acting implications of climate change and sea-level rise for the effectiveness of CERP-planned actions. Such analysis should be conducted with a system-level view, accounting for potential changes in Florida Bay inflows under a range of future climate conditions to understand the capacity of the CERP to improve the resilience of the Southern Estuaries.
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From page 173... ...
compared to the original CERP planning assumptions. The agencies plan to revisit the operating policy for Lake Okeechobee (currently scheduled for 2019)
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From page 174... ...
Basin 160,000 170,000 C-44 Reservoir 40,000 50,600 Other Upper East Coast Storagec 349,000 109,400c EAA Reservoirs 360,000 300,000d,e Central Palm Beach Reservoir 19,920 TBD Site 1 Reservoir 14,760 0f Bird Drive Reservoir 11,600 0g Acme Basin 4,950 0h Seminole Tribe Big Cypress 7,440 TBD Total above-ground reservoir storage 1,217,670 Projects planned to date 1,190,310 673,000 Potential storage in projects not yet planned, 27,360 or planning not finalized: In-ground Reservoirs North Lake Belt 90,000 Feasibility unproven Central Lake Belt 187,200 Feasibility unproven L-8 Basin 48,000 45,000e Total in-ground reservoir storage 325,200 Projects planned to date 48,000 45,000e Potential storage in projects not yet planned, 277,200 or planning not finalized: ASR Wells All CERP wells 1,637,000i TBD a Updated capacity based on difference between an assumed low level of 9 ft and the highest stage in the upper band (17.25 ft for Lake Okeechobee Regulation Schedule (LORS) 2008 and 18.5 ft for Water Supply and Environment [WSE]
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From page 175... ...
By the end of 2019, the planning for most major storage components will be complete, with only Lake Okeechobee Regulation and the Lake Belt projects unresolved. SPECIFIC ANALYSES NEEDED FOR THE MID-COURSE ASSESSMENT The committee has identified the basic attributes of a systemwide modeling analysis that would support a useful mid-course assessment of CERP outcomes, given new information and changing conditions.
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From page 176... ...
are among the models available to simulate water levels and flows. These hydrologic models provide the input data for ecological models capable of simulating vegetation in estuaries, Lake Okeechobee, and Everglades wetlands; aquatic fauna populations; and wading-bird nesting patterns.
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From page 177... ...
Consequently, it excludes assessment of potential benefits of major CERP projects that are now in the late stages of planning, such as the Lake Okeechobee Watershed Restoration Project and the Western Everglades Restoration Project as well as the recently authorized EAA Storage Reservoir Project. These projects will affect a large portion of the Everglades footprint.
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From page 178... ...
These CERP implementa tion scenarios could include • Future without any CERP projects, • Future with CERP projects as completed today, • Future with all authorized CERP projects, • Future with authorized CERP projects and CERP projects in planning, and • Future with authorized and planned CERP projects plus potential alterna tive Lake Okeechobee regulation schedules. A comparison among these climate and implementation scenarios would show the incremental benefits provided by CERP implementation and the sensitivity of these outcomes to climate change.
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From page 179... ...
These rainfall scenarios, together with specifications of a 1.5o C temperature increase and 1.5 ft rise in sea level over historic levels, were used in the SFWMM to simulate the responses of Everglades water levels and flows to climate change without any restoration projects in place. Approaches for using different climate scenarios that are conditional on the spread in climate-model projections are available, have been tested to a limited extent in South Florida, and should be adopted for the CERP mid-course assessment.
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From page 180... ...
Research Needs to Support the Future Success of the CERP Science support for the CERP, with its large and long-term infrastructure investments, requires attention to future stressors, their potential impacts on the South Florida ecosystem, and the implications for restoration. This section high 2 See www.deepuncertainty.org.
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From page 181... ...
Improving the capabilities of hydrologic modeling tools to capture the coupled interaction with changing coastal boundary conditions, including salinity transport, would support assessment of the impacts of sea-level rise and storm surges on the Everglades ecosystem for current as well as future conditions. Improving the model to address changing coastal boundary conditions would also improve the capacity to evaluate the benefits provided to near coastal areas by restoration alternatives.
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From page 182... ...
An important output of additional research and monitoring of vegetation and soil response to sea-level rise would be the coupling of a wetland landscape model with a revised hydrologic model that integrates the dynamics of sea-level rise in hydrologic simulations. A landscape submodel capable of depicting the accumulation and loss of peat and changes in land surface elevation in response to changes in freshwater flows as well as seawater inundation would be a valu able tool for CERP agencies.
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From page 183... ...
A CERP Mid-Course Assessment 183 FIGURE 6-6 G-LiHT classification of vegetation impacts of Hurricane Irma in Everglades National Park/ Shark River. NOTES: Top: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)
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From page 184... ...
Now that project implementation is in full swing, the emphasis has shifted toward sup porting project planning and evaluation of benefits. RECOVER has produced an impressive array of reports to support restoration, and the RECOVER Five Year Plan (RECOVER, 2016)
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From page 185... ...
The South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Task Force chartered the South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Science Coordination Group in 2003 to develop a report that "tracks and coordinates programmatic level science and other research, identifies programmatic level priority science needs and gaps, and facilitates management decisions" and to provide scientific support to the Task Force. The most recent Plan for Coordinating Science was updated in 2010 (SFERTF, 2010)
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From page 186... ...
Lead Scientists for the Delta Stewardship Council are credentialed Ph.D.'s who have themselves made substantial contributions, and are skilled in communicating to policy m akers and respected by their peers. Limiting the term of the position would not only prevent burnout in such a central, high-visibility role, but also allow for fresh insights to guide the Everglades scientific community.
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From page 187... ...
Such a program for the Everglades could also embrace the following activities: • Guiding the development and refinement of effective integrative modeling tools, • Charting the transition to new technologies and tools as they become available and tested for readiness, • Prioritizing the array of issues and uncertainties that could be researched to support restoration, • Identifying needs for advances in synthesis, modeling, and analytics to improve the capacities and responsiveness of the adaptive management program, and • Providing a single voice for communication of science at the highest level. For example, the Delta Stewardship Council Lead Scientist serves on the Delta Plan Interagency Implementation Committee and regularly testifies to legislative and policy bodies.
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From page 188... ...
Now that several major project planning efforts are nearing completion and the vision for CERP storage is largely developed, which will require decades to construct at current funding levels, the time is right for a mid-course assessment. A science program focused on understanding impacts of current and future stressors on the South Florida ecosystem is needed to ensure that CERP agencies have the latest scientific information and tools to successfully plan and imple ment the restoration program.
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