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Pages 1-18

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From page 1...
... The heart of this congressional charge is to identify evidence-based programs and policies for reducing the number of children living in poverty in the United States by half within 10 years. This 10-year window meant that the National Academies' study would need to focus on policies that could affect poor parents' resources in the near term, rather than on investments such as improved education for poor children that might well reduce poverty for future generations.
From page 2...
... objective analyses of the poverty-reducing effects of major assis tance programs directed at children and families; and 3. policy and program recommendations for reducing the number of children living in poverty -- including those living in deep poverty (with family incomes below one-half the poverty line)
From page 3...
... The committee finds that many programs that alleviate poverty -- either directly, by providing income transfers, or indirectly, by providing food, housing, or medical care -- have been shown to improve child well-being.3 Specifically, we find that • periodic increases in the generosity of the Earned Income Tax Credit Program have improved child educational and health outcomes,4 • the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has improved birth outcomes as well as many important child and adult health outcomes,5 • expansions of public health insurance for pregnant women, infants, and children have led to substantial improvements in child and adult health, educational attainment, employment, and earnings,6 and 2 Thisis based on a Gross Domestic Product of $20.41 trillion in the second quarter of 2018.
From page 4...
... CONCLUSION 5-2: A number of other program and policy options lead to substantial reductions in poverty and deep poverty. Two involve existing programs -- the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and housing vouchers.
From page 5...
... CONCLUSION 6-2: The committee was unable to formulate an evidence-based employment-oriented package that would come close to meeting its man date of reducing child poverty by 50 percent. The best employment-oriented package it could design combines expansions of the Earned Income Tax Credit, the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit, a minimum wage increase, and a promising career development program.
From page 6...
... CONCLUSION 7-4: There is insufficient evidence to identify mandatory work policies that would reliably reduce child poverty, and it appears that work requirements are at least as likely to increase as to decrease poverty. The dearth of evidence also reflects underinvestment over the past two decades in methodologically strong evaluations of the impacts of alternative work programs.
From page 7...
... The committee examined the poverty-reducing impacts of the current set of major federal assistance programs by estimating how child poverty rates would have changed had each of these programs not been operating (see Figure S-1) .9 The two refundable tax credits -- the EITC and the refundable portion of the Child Tax Credit -- are the most successful at alleviating poverty, as shown in Figure S-1.
From page 8...
... CTC = Child Tax Credit, EITC = Earned Income Tax Credit, SNAP = Supple­ NOTE: SOURCE: Estimates from TRIM3 commissioned by the committee,Income, the Supplemental mental Nutrition Assistance Program, SSI = Supplemental Security using UC = PovertyUnemployment Compensation,Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplem Measure with the Current WC = Workers' Compensation. SOURCE: Estimates from TRIM3 commissioned by the committee, using the Supwith income corrected for underreporting.
From page 9...
... Government tax and transfer programs reduced child poverty modestly between 1967 and 1993, but they became increasingly important after 1993 because of increases in government benefits (mainly the Earned Income Tax Credit) targeted at the poor and near poor.
From page 10...
... According to that government's projections, the benefit will reduce the number of Canadian children living in poverty by nearly one-half. REDUCING CHILD POVERTY IN THE UNITED STATES BY HALF IN 10 YEARS The heart of the committee's charge is to identify policies and programs that have the potential to reduce child poverty and deep poverty in the United States by half within 10 years.
From page 11...
... The committee's simulations showed that no single program or policy option that we considered could meet the goal of reducing child poverty by one-half. A $3,000 per child per year child allowance policy would produce the largest poverty reduction, and it would meet the goal of reducing deep poverty (50% of SPM poverty)
From page 12...
... Incomes are corrected for underreporting. EITC = Earned Income Tax Credit, SOURCE: Estimates from TRIM3 commissioned by the committee.
From page 13...
... Although virtually all of these options reduced poverty across all of the subgroups considered, there were disproportionately large decreases in child poverty for Black children and children of mothers with low levels of education. Hispanic children and children in immigrant families benefited relatively less.16 PACKAGES OF POLICIES AND PROGRAMS TO REDUCE CHILD POVERTY AND DEEP POVERTY Since none of the committee's individual policy and program options met both of the 50 percent reduction goals -- for both poverty and deep poverty -- the committee developed the four program and policy "packages" shown in Table S-1 and assessed their expected impacts.
From page 14...
... Work- Universal tested Supports oriented Supports Supports and and Work Package Package  Work Package Package Expand EITC X X X X Work-oriented Programs and Expand CDCTC X X X X Policies Increase the Minimum Wage X X Roll Out WorkAdvance X Expand Housing Voucher Program X Income Support-oriented Programs and Policies Expand SNAP Benefits X Begin a Child Allowance X X Begin Child Support Assurance X Eliminate 1996 Immigration Eligibility Restrictions X Percentage Reduction in the Number of Poor Children −18.8% −35.6% −50.7% −52.3% Percentage Reduction in the Number of Children in Deep Poverty −19.3% −41.3% −51.7% −55.1% Change in Number of Low-income Workers +1,003,000 +568,000 +404,000 +611,000 Annual Cost, in Billions $8.7 $44.5 $90.7 $108.8 NOTE: CDCTC = Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit, EITC = Earned Income Tax Credit, SNAP = Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. the committee's research recommendations address the need for building a more solid and reliable body of evidence on current programs.
From page 15...
... The universal supports and work package was designed to meet the 50 percent poverty-reduction goals by enhancing income security and stability while at the same time rewarding work and promoting social inclusion. The cornerstone of this package is a child allowance, but the package also includes a new child support assurance program, an expansion of the EITC and CDCTC, an increase in the minimum wage, and elimination of the immigrant eligibility restrictions imposed by the 1996 welfare reform.
From page 16...
... It appears that work requirements are at least as likely to increase as to decrease poverty. The dearth of evidence on mandatory work policies also reflects an underinvestment over the past two decades in methodologically strong evaluations of the impacts of alternative work programs.20 WHICH CONTEXTUAL FACTORS PROMOTE OR IMPEDE ANTI POVERTY POLICIES AND PROGRAMS?
From page 17...
... No single modification we considered met the 50 percent poverty-reduction goals, and those that came close led more people to leave than enter the labor force. And while work-oriented enhancements, such as expanding the EITC or making the CDCTC fully refundable, would reduce child poverty at a relatively low cost, they would be much less effective at reducing the number of children living in deep poverty.
From page 18...
... It could do this by convening working groups of appropriate federal program, research, and statistical agencies to assess this report's conclusions regarding the program packages capable of reducing child poverty by half within 10 years of adoption. Further, the committee recommends that OMB convene working groups charged with assessing the report's recommendations for research and data collection to fill important gaps in knowledge about programs that are effective at reducing child poverty.


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