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From page 267... ... Appendix D Economic Outlook Factors Affecting Highway Demand Mark Sieber and Glen Weisbrod1 BACKGROUND AND OVERVIEW Background The Interstate Highway System is the backbone of the U.S. road network. Read the entire page →
From page 268... ... 268 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM Overview The objective of this appendix is to show how economic changes affect demand for Interstate Highway System travel, the range of ways that economic changes can evolve, and the implications for truck and car highway demand (including VMT patterns) Read the entire page →
From page 269... ... APPENDIX D 269 population has grown 74 percent. Over this same period, the number of registered automobiles has increased 239 percent. Read the entire page →
From page 270... ... 270 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM Traffic Consequences The evolution of economic activity over time can be viewed in terms of changes in regional economic growth and composition (specialization) Read the entire page →
From page 271... ... APPENDIX D 271 HOW THE ECONOMY HAS INFLUENCED TRAVEL DEMAND TO DATE This section examines past trends and current patterns concerning the relationship of highway demand and economic growth. By examining this issue, we can identify factors that will also be relevant for forecasting future highway needs (later in the section on what we can expect) Read the entire page →
From page 272... ... 272 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM • Changes in the spatial pattern of workforce participation patterns over time; • Changes in the relative levels of worker income and their spatial pattern over time; • Changes in the regional location pattern of VMT growth on highway networks; • Changes in the car/truck ratio on highways; • Changes in the origin, destination, and distance characteristics of car and truck trips, reflecting both longer supply chains nationally and longer commute patterns in major, growing metro areas; • Changes in the share of truck movement going to and from air, sea, or rail terminals or land borders; and • Changes in the types of freight carried by trucks and their service to supply chains and distribution centers (which reflects evolution to lean manufacturing and integrated supply chain technologies, building on IT/telecommunication advances and vertical integration) Read the entire page →
From page 273... ... APPENDIX D 273 road capacity utilization and degradation than cars. Next, we examine how VMT composition and location patterns are also changing. Read the entire page →
From page 274... ... 274 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM FIGURE D-4 Employment 1985, by county. FIGURE D-5 Change in employment, 1985–2015, by county. Read the entire page →
From page 275... ... APPENDIX D 275 Key Differences in Highway Reliance Among Industries There are systematic and large differences among industries in terms of the extent to which they generate truck traffic (VMT) Read the entire page →
From page 276... ... 276 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM TABLE D-1 Differences in Tonnage, Truck Reliance, and Shipment Lengths, by Industry Industry Tonnage (millions) Tons per Employee By Truck (%) Read the entire page →
From page 277... ... APPENDIX D 277 The combination of all these effects leads to shifts in the freight intensity of industries in different areas of the country. Freight intensity is defined here as the tonnage of incoming and outgoing freight per employee, relative to the national average. Read the entire page →
From page 278... ... 278 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM FIGURE D-6 Freight demand intensity relative to U.S. average, 1985, by county. Read the entire page →
From page 279... ... APPENDIX D 279 Urban Population Patterns Follow the Economy and Shift Metropolitan Highway Needs The spatial pattern of population growth over 30 years is shown in Figure D-8. The pattern generally mimics the spatial pattern of employment growth over the same period, which was shown as Figure D-5, even though there are few areas with an absolute decrease of population numbers. Read the entire page →
From page 280... ... 280 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM Transferability Statistics research (Manson et al. Read the entire page →
From page 281... ... APPENDIX D 281 areas of stagnant employment shown earlier in Figure D-5. This trend may reflect lower income growth and/or more workers per household, though further work will be necessary to confirm these relationships. Read the entire page →
From page 282... ... 282 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM WHAT CAN WE EXPECT FOR THE FUTURE? The information in the preceding section on how the economy affects highway traffic provides a basis for now considering expectations about the long-term future evolution of the U.S. Read the entire page →
From page 283... ... APPENDIX D 283 Moody's data used for this study include highly detailed demographic and economic forecasts. The demographic forecasts included information on changes in population, households, household size, type, workforce, retirees, and children. Read the entire page →
From page 284... ... 284 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM Other industries show different spatial growth and decrease patterns, which do not necessarily correlate with population growth. These patterns are further explored for four example industries (see Figures D-12–D-15) Read the entire page →
From page 285... ... APPENDIX D 285 FIGURE D-12 Trucking and warehousing and storage: Spatial pattern of job growth and decrease, by county, 2015–2045. FIGURE D-13 Professional and scientific and technical: Spatial pattern of job growth and decrease, by county, 2015–2045. Read the entire page →
From page 286... ... 286 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM FIGURE D-14 Machinery manufacturing: Spatial pattern of job growth and decrease, by county, 2015–2045. FIGURE D-15 Wood, paper, and furniture manufacturing: Spatial pattern of job growth and decrease, by county, 2015–2045. Read the entire page →
From page 287... ... APPENDIX D 287 2015 and 2045, it is forecast to lose 369,000 jobs. The analysis shows that this loss will be widely dispersed and not particularly concentrated in areas that have traditionally been manufacturing centers. Read the entire page →
From page 288... ... 288 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM economic activities require incoming freight shipments for their operations. There is a systematic variation in freight intensity associated with different industries (see Addendum Table D-A1) Read the entire page →
From page 289... ... APPENDIX D 289 that are already fast-growing, including Southern California, the Bay Area, the Texas Triangle, southern Florida, and some other metropolitan areas. These areas will also experience higher than average increases in commuting traffic on area highways, unless there are substantial efforts to shift more commuting to alternative modes. Read the entire page →
From page 290... ... 290 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM FIGURE D-19 Forecast growth in ratio of daily passenger VMT per household, 2015–2045. FIGURE D-20 Forecast growth in total daily passenger VMT, 2015–2045. Read the entire page →
From page 291... ... APPENDIX D 291 Alternative Economic Futures and Highway Travel Consequences There is significant uncertainty about future economic changes, since there may be unforeseen factors that will affect the assumptions made about relative changes in U.S. productivity and cost-competitiveness, energy and other resource prices, international trade regulations, or other factors. Read the entire page →
From page 292... ... 292 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM FIGURE D-21 Jobs in stronger U.S. economic prosperity scenario compared with baseline, 2045. Read the entire page →
From page 293... ... APPENDIX D 293 metropolitan areas, particularly the megaregions. Growth of service industries is more dispersed. Read the entire page →
From page 294... ... 294 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM both commuting and freight movements. To portray these shifts in traffic movements, it is necessary to first consider matrices of interindustry (buy and sell) Read the entire page →
From page 295... ... APPENDIX D 295 Additional Sources of Future Economic Change: Planning Under Uncertainty Conditions Difference Between Economic Factors and Other Uncertainty Factors The preceding section discussed uncertainties about the economy, with alternative assumptions regarding economic factors such as evolving longterm shifts in trade, inflation, investment, and prices, which can affect the future pattern of industry and spatial economic growth. This section discusses other uncertainties that can also affect the economy (and hence highway VMT) Read the entire page →
From page 296... ... 296 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM Monte Carlo simulations to calculate the economic impact of such events taking place at different locations. From an economic impact perspective, the cause does not necessarily matter. Read the entire page →
From page 297... ... APPENDIX D 297 FIGURE D-25 Illustration of ports affected by shift of U.S. grain exports to Asia instead of Mexico. Read the entire page →
From page 298... ... 298 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM CONCLUSIONS AND NEXT STEPS This section summarizes findings to date and issues that remain to be addressed. Findings to Date This appendix has shown how evolving changes in the U.S. Read the entire page →
From page 299... ... APPENDIX D 299 changes in international trade, domestic trade, and other economic change scenarios. In addition to better developing VMT projections, more work is needed to develop alternative economic futures in sufficient detail to support a robust risk and uncertainty analysis. Read the entire page →
From page 300... ... 300 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM ADDENDUM Freight Intensity Estimation Freight intensity of demand is an ad hoc measure designed to reflect the spatial concentration of industries that demand a high level of freight goods for their production processes. This was estimated by using an input-output model (IMPLAN version 536, sector detail) Read the entire page →
From page 301... ... APPENDIX D 301 Baseline Scenario Over 50 Years The following tables show baseline forecasts for 2015–2065 in terms of employment and output. TABLE D-A1 Baseline Employment by Industry Over Time Industry Employment (jobs) Read the entire page →
From page 302... ... 302 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM Industry Employment (jobs) 2015 2025 2035 2045 2065 Primary metal manufacturing 405,483 345,648 293,973 294,099 294,350 Fabricated metal manufacturing 1,515,650 1,292,039 1,099,951 1,082,180 1,046,636 Machinery manufacturing 1,145,136 969,793 825,621 775,851 676,310 Computer and electronics manufacturing 968,065 889,448 763,589 672,061 489,004 Electrical equipment and appliance manufacturing 401,509 368,426 327,094 301,570 250,520 Transportation equipment manufacturing 1,613,540 1,588,006 1,631,493 1,625,293 1,612,893 Furniture manufacturing 420,986 404,183 382,307 357,701 308,490 Miscellaneous manufacturing 680,610 624,546 556,892 516,722 436,382 Wholesale trade 6,443,610 5,912,392 5,274,378 4,891,133 4,124,645 Retail trade 18,026,221 19,241,384 19,533,894 20,742,242 23,158,938 Air transportation 492,667 511,947 508,301 493,861 464,982 Rail transportation 208,010 213,176 211,272 204,986 192,413 Water transportation 76,415 77,736 76,778 74,079 68,681 Truck transportation 2,114,043 2,187,086 2,173,695 2,113,140 1,992,030 Transit and ground transportation 1,081,420 1,123,903 1,132,230 1,122,827 1,104,022 Pipeline transportation 49,589 51,639 51,699 50,407 47,824 Scenic and sightseeing transport support 732,246 850,774 936,574 1,075,197 1,352,442 Couriers, messengers and postal service 1,516,438 1,648,381 1,745,696 1,843,748 2,039,853 Warehousing and storage 1,022,957 1,094,506 1,115,386 1,081,879 1,014,864 Media and information 3,356,782 3,408,581 3,403,326 3,452,451 3,550,702 Finance and insurance 9,939,217 10,805,384 11,819,397 13,378,990 16,498,175 Real estate, rental, and leasing 8,125,814 8,958,662 10,116,908 11,784,507 15,119,706 TABLE D-A1 Continued Read the entire page →
From page 303... ... APPENDIX D 303 Industry Employment (jobs) 2015 2025 2035 2045 2065 Professional, scientific, and technical 14,400,183 16,149,377 17,534,598 19,135,320 22,336,762 Management services 2,354,727 2,680,167 2,987,841 3,343,850 4,055,869 Business services (administration, support, waste) Read the entire page →
From page 304... ... 304 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM Industry Output (millions of dollars) 2015 2025 2035 2045 2065 Textile mills and products manufacturing 66,132 67,216 67,716 67,793 67,948 Apparel manufacturing 19,823 20,379 20,248 19,860 19,083 Leather product manufacturing 8,070 8,330 8,270 8,129 7,847 Wood product manufacturing 106,328 134,466 168,957 207,410 284,316 Paper manufacturing 225,308 274,032 332,838 396,485 523,778 Printing 90,469 93,109 91,817 89,772 85,683 Petroleum and coal products manufacturing 451,997 573,415 673,650 784,554 1,006,361 Chemical manufacturing 1,174,022 1,429,874 1,670,998 1,938,843 2,474,533 Plastics and rubber products manufacturing 246,803 292,234 333,835 379,070 469,539 Nonmetal mineral product manufacturing 135,735 167,923 206,456 247,168 328,592 Primary metal manufacturing 281,137 330,562 384,827 432,084 526,598 Fabricated metal manufacturing 395,002 469,410 556,883 635,857 793,804 Machinery manufacturing 496,023 563,837 662,953 765,445 970,429 Computer and electronics manufacturing 550,279 859,682 1,331,497 1,932,443 3,134,333 Electrical equipment and appliance manufacturing 162,465 203,281 256,307 317,309 439,313 Transportation equipment manufacturing 1,124,302 1,496,830 1,905,149 2,232,592 2,887,479 Furniture manufacturing 82,382 94,008 106,308 117,504 139,895 Miscellaneous manufacturing 189,949 239,284 297,830 362,965 493,235 Wholesale trade 1,655,910 2,073,713 2,580,157 3,145,545 4,276,322 Retail trade 1,472,336 1,889,020 2,376,010 2,915,317 3,993,930 Air transportation 202,027 268,796 342,445 430,541 606,734 Rail transportation 84,438 108,380 136,113 169,230 235,463 Water transportation 62,514 83,829 106,066 130,161 178,350 Truck transportation 349,964 454,628 570,930 710,173 988,659 Transit and ground transportation 73,832 91,492 109,817 130,587 172,127 TABLE D-A2 Continued Read the entire page →
From page 305... ... APPENDIX D 305 Industry Output (millions of dollars) 2015 2025 2035 2045 2065 Pipeline transportation 35,734 47,218 61,352 78,240 112,017 Scenic and sightseeing transport support 123,116 162,613 205,658 256,390 357,854 Couriers, messengers, and postal service 162,065 200,763 243,780 293,329 392,429 Warehousing and storage 104,703 151,911 217,731 308,081 488,781 Media and information 1,639,214 2,217,025 2,815,322 3,531,935 4,965,162 Finance and insurance 2,441,631 2,843,859 3,153,913 3,469,123 4,099,543 Real estate, rental, and leasing 3,231,264 3,764,937 4,166,190 4,577,163 5,399,109 Professional, scientific, and technical 2,368,846 3,144,850 3,993,965 4,974,890 6,936,739 Management services 573,327 756,200 953,161 1,179,644 1,632,611 Business services (administration, support, waste) Read the entire page →
From page 306... ... 306 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM Changes in Characteristics of the Economy The following tables show forecasts of change in the industry mix, productivity, and trip distances over 2015–2045. TABLE D-A3 Economic Shifts by Industry, 2015–2045 Industry Distribution of Employment (%) Read the entire page →
From page 307... ... APPENDIX D 307 TABLE D-A3 Continued continued Industry Distribution of Employment (%) Distribution of GDP (%) Read the entire page →
From page 308... ... 308 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM TABLE D-A3 Continued Industry Distribution of Employment (%) Distribution of GDP (%) Read the entire page →
From page 309... ... APPENDIX D 309 Industry Change in Output per Employee, 2015–2045 (%) Change in Income per Employee, 2015–2045 (%) Read the entire page →
From page 310... ... 310 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM Alternative Scenarios The alternative scenarios used here have a common property: strong and differing assumptions about economic conditions over the first 10 years (2015–2025) , followed by an adjustment toward equilibrium (diminishing the severity of the trend) Read the entire page →
From page 311... ... APPENDIX D 311 FIGURE D-A2 Projections of employment by scenario. FIGURE D-A3 Projections of output by scenario. Read the entire page →
From page 312... ... 312 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM Note that output (rather than GDP) has some advantage for forecasting changes in travel demand because it reflects the total value of goods produced and goods shipped (whereas GDP reflects the portion of output value that is incremental personal and business income) Read the entire page →

From page 267...

... Appendix D Economic Outlook Factors Affecting Highway Demand Mark Sieber and Glen Weisbrod1 BACKGROUND AND OVERVIEW Background The Interstate Highway System is the backbone of the U.S. road network.