Renewing the National Commitment to the Interstate Highway System: A Foundation for the Future (2019) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix G Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Interstate Highway System Donald J Wuebbles and Jennifer M
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390 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM Earth's climate is changing at a pace and in a pattern not explainable by natural influences. Many different lines of evidence demonstrate that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are primarily responsible for the observed climate changes in the industrial era, especially over the past six decades.
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APPENDIX G 391 2014; MacArthur et al.
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392 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM interaction, over time, of rapidly changing local weather and more slowly changing regional and global influences, such as the distribution of heat in the oceans, the amount of energy reaching Earth from the Sun, and the composition of the atmosphere. Observed Trends in Temperature Highly diverse types of measurements made on land, sea, and in the atmosphere over many decades have allowed scientists to conclude with confidence that global mean temperature is increasing.
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APPENDIX G 393 decades. Regional climate variability is important (e.g., Hoegh-Guldberg et al.
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394 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM of 1.2°F (0.7°C) was obtained by computing the difference between the average for 1986–2016 (i.e., present day)
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APPENDIX G 395 Other Indicators of Climate Change Observational data sets for many other climate variables support the conclusion with high confidence that the global climate (including that of the United States) is changing (Blunden and Arndt 2016; EPA 2016a; Meehl et al.
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396 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM ice, mountain glaciers, and Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover have all decreased. The relatively small increase in Antarctic sea ice in the 15year period from 2000 through early 2016 appears to be best explained as being due to localized natural variability (see, e.g., Meehl et al.
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APPENDIX G 397 Observed Trends in Precipitation Precipitation is perhaps the most societally relevant aspect of the hydrological cycle and has been observed over global land areas for more than a century. However, spatial scales of precipitation are small (e.g., it can rain several inches in Washington, DC, but not a drop in nearby Baltimore)
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398 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM Annual precipitation averaged across the United States has increased approximately 4 percent over the 1901–2015 period. There continue to be important regional and seasonal differences in precipitation changes (see Figure G-6)
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APPENDIX G 399 in California that began in late 2011 (NCEI 2016a; Seager et al.
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400 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM based on analysis of in situ observations, and is associated with springtime warming (Pederson et al.
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APPENDIX G 401 droughts, floods, hurricanes, and wildfires. A portion of these increased costs can be attributed to the increase in population and infrastructure near coastal regions.
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402 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM weather obviously does occur naturally. However, the influence of human activities on global climate is altering the frequency and/or severity of many of these events.
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APPENDIX G 403 nationally in the 2-day precipitation events exceeding the station-specific threshold for a 5-year recurrence interval, i.e., the one-in-5-year events)
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404 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM trend been identified in the number of U.S. landfalling hurricanes (Melillo et al.
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APPENDIX G 405 do suggest that tornadoes could get more intense in the coming decades (Diffenbaugh et al.
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406 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM A variety of other factors can cause local vertical land movement. These include natural sediment compaction, compaction caused by local extraction of groundwater and fossil fuels, and processes related to plate tectonics, such as earthquakes and more gradual seismic creep (Wöppelmann and Marcos 2016; Zervas et al.
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APPENDIX G 407 In addition to reflected sunlight, Earth loses energy through infrared (long-wavelength) radiation from the surface and atmosphere.
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408 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM current concentration of more than 400 ppm, an increase that is greater than 40 percent. CO2 emissions have grown in the industrial era primarily from fossil fuel combustion (i.e., coal, gas, oil)
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APPENDIX G 409 percent to 35 percent of the warming caused by the increasing concentrations of GHGs. It is not only the direct effects from human emissions that affect climate.
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410 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM observed over the past 50 years. Over the past five decades, natural drivers of climate such as solar forcing and volcanoes would actually have led to a slight cooling.
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APPENDIX G 411 Another line of evidence is from reconstructions of past climates using evidence such as tree rings, ice cores, and corals. These show that the change in global surface temperatures over the past five decades are clearly unusual and outside the range of natural variability.
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412 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CHANGES IN CLIMATE Choices made now and in the next few decades about emissions from fossil fuel use and land use change will determine the amount of additional future warming over this century and beyond. Global emissions of CO2 and other heat-trapping gases continue to rise.
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APPENDIX G 413 and other factors. Another ~0.5°F (0.2°–0.3°C)
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414 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM Increases in tropical precipitation are projected during rainy seasons (such as monsoons) , especially over the tropical Pacific.
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APPENDIX G 415 particularly in the middle latitudes. Certain regions, including the western United States (especially the Southwest; Melillo et al.
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416 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM A number of research studies have examined the potential criteria for dangerous human interferences in climate for which it will be difficult to adapt to the changes in climate without major effects on our society (e.g., Hansen et al.
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APPENDIX G 417 climate are geographically diverse and impacts are sector dependent, and so there really is no defined threshold at which dangerous interferences are actually reached. The warming and other changes in the climate system will continue beyond 2100 under all RCP scenarios, except for a leveling of temperature under RCP 2.6.
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418 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM to increase at least 5°F (2.8°C) in most areas by mid-century (Fischer et al.
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APPENDIX G 419 extremes are also striking; by late century, current 1-in-20-year maximums are predicted to occur every year, while current 1-in-20-year minimums are not expected to occur at all (Wuebbles et al.
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APPENDIX G 421 due to changes in dynamical processes are poorly understood. However, projected changes in atmospheric rivers, a narrow corridor of concentrated atmospheric moisture, have been found to increase in number and water vapor transport (Dettinger 2011)
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422 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM exceeding 8 feet (2.4 meters) by 2100 cannot be excluded, and even higher amounts are possible as a result of ice sheet instability.
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APPENDIX G 423 Kopp et al.
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424 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM Global sea level rise and its regional variability forced by climatic and ocean circulation patterns are contributing to significant increases in annual tidal-flood frequencies, which are measured by NOAA tide gauges. As seen in Figure G-19, some portions of the U.S.
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APPENDIX G 425 Rising Alaskan permafrost temperatures are causing permafrost to thaw and become more discontinuous. Alaskan and Arctic permafrost characteristics have responded to increased temperatures and reduced snow cover in most regions since the 1980s (AMAP 2011)
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APPENDIX G 427 FIGURE G-20 Notable potential impacts to the Interstate Highway System and other transportation modes. SOURCE: Adaptation of Figure 1 in U.S.
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428 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM Transportation systems are interdependent. When climate and weather compromise passenger and freight ability to reach their destination safely and efficiently using the Interstate Highway System, other modes of transportation are simultaneously affected and the overall system performance may be further compromised.
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APPENDIX G 429 FIGURE G-21 Percentage difference in asphalt concrete rutting between baseline and future periods. NOTES: Temperature values were obtained from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program's climate change simulations for the baseline period 1971–2000 and for the future period 2041–2070.
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430 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM High temperatures and rapid temperature changes can induce differential movement of joint and deck stress materials and may lead to premature failure (Meyer et al.
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APPENDIX G 431 conditions will likely alleviate expenditures in some regions and amplify expenditures in other regions. In Alaska, the melting permafrost will have significant impacts on roads, bridges, and culverts and adjacent land due to ground settlement.
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432 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM and Southern California (I-880) in January, North Central California (I-5)
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APPENDIX G 433 FIGURE G-23 Repeated floods in Iowa, including Cedar Rapids and Iowa City, closed I-80 in 2008 and threatened I-80 and I-380 again in 2016.
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434 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM Pavements are affected by annual precipitation changes as well as extremes. Wetter conditions will reduce the pavement structure load capacity, require improved surface and subsurface drainage, and likely negatively affect construction because of weather-related delays (Muench and Van Dam 2015)
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APPENDIX G 435 transportation. For moderate storm events, rising seas present a flooding risk to low-lying roadways and underground infrastructure, such as road tunnels, during storm events.
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436 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM region, regional extreme events, and local conditions. In the Gulf of Mexico and South Atlantic coasts, tropical storms and hurricanes are key extreme events.
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APPENDIX G 437 INDIRECT EFFECTS OF PROJECTED FUTURE CLIMATE ON THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM The Interstate Highway System and Inland Navigation Industries that need inland transport services can use barges, trains, or trucks. For the Interstate Highway System, changes in access to or reliability of another mode of transportation may change the shipment mode.
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438 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM FIGURE G-26 Summary of projected lake level change from mean sea level (MSL) for Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Erie by month.
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APPENDIX G 439 to elevate the fire risk up to 30 percent by 2100 (IPCC 2007)
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440 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM FIGURE G-27 Top 25 ports by tonnage, 2013 (top) ; top 25 water ports by containerized cargo, 2014 (bottom)
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APPENDIX G 441 U.S. agricultural production overall (Niemeier et al.
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442 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM River in Kentucky. Truck routes in northern regions that connect highways with ports and rail terminals may also need to be improved.
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APPENDIX G 443 FHWA Federal Highway Administration GAO Government Accountability Office IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change NASEM National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine NCEI National Centers for Environmental Information NRC National Research Council TRB Transportation Research Board U.S.
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444 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM Bindoff, N
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APPENDIX G 445 Davy, R., I
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446 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM Flanner, M
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APPENDIX G 447 Hoerling, M., M
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448 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM Knott, J
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450 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM Meyer, M
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APPENDIX G 451 Notaro, M., V Bennington, and B
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452 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM Rupp, D
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APPENDIX G 453 Stephens, H
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454 NATIONAL COMMITMENT TO THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM Trenberth, K
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APPENDIX G 455 Walsh, J., D Wuebbles, K
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