A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis (2019) / Chapter Skim
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10 Capitalizing on Opportunities in Social and Behavioral Sciences (SBS) Research: A 10-Year Vision
10 Capitalizing on Opportunities in Social and Behavioral Sciences (SBS) Research: A 10-Year Vision
Pages 311-328
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From page 311... ...
research into the analyst's work as it evolves in the coming decade will be critical. It is this knowledge base that will enable the IC to develop technological supports that are both proactive and interactive and can effectively augment the capacities of human analysts and, more broadly, to respond effectively to the security threats of the coming decades.
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From page 312... ...
The questions from the White House suggest a direction that needs exploration, so the analyst and colleagues identify particular aspects of current social media traffic about which further analysis is needed. Through AI real-time processing of large amounts of data, the analyst has access to a continuously updated compilation of emergent narrative themes in the flow of social media information with potential relevance to her account, but it is up to her and her human colleagues to identify the most intriguing themes, those worthy of further exploration and analysis.
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From page 313... ...
SBS research offers the IC important opportunities to shape the way it responds to these changes. The opportunities described in this report offer the potential for • stronger intelligence assessments; • tools and technologies optimally designed for human use and human–machine interaction; and • strengthened readiness to confront evolving security threats.
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From page 314... ...
The methodologies and tools described in this report may allow for faster processing of large volumes of data, integration of multiple kinds of data, and other forms of analysis and tracking that would be beyond the capacity of human analysts. These capabilities can make it possible to efficiently track regions, populations, groups, and sources of information, from news coverage and social media discourse to satellite imagery of troop movements.
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From page 315... ...
Such a team could, proactively and securely, reach across controlled-access networks and develop enhanced intelligence analyses by identifying patterns and associations in data more rapidly than humans alone could, doing so in real time and uncovering connections that previously would not have been detectable. Whatever directions the IC takes in developing and procuring technologies to support intelligence analysis in the coming decade, it will surely rely on researchers and other experts, both those working within the IC and outside contractors; commercially available software programs; and other resources.
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From page 316... ...
The developing field of social cybersecurity, which integrates methods from the social sciences, most notably social network analysis, with machine learning, natural language processing, and other technologies, is offering tools, tactics, procedures, and policies with which to assess, predict, and mitigate the impact of adversarial social cyberattacks. Further research in this area can augment the significant approaches to cybersecurity already in place within the IC by integrating SBS-based understanding of individual and social processes and supporting the development of a new set of techniques for open-source assessment and forecasting that are grounded in understanding of social processes and phenomena.
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From page 317... ...
The following conclusion expresses our key message to IC leadership as they set specific priorities for research in the coming decade. CONCLUSION 10-1: Social and behavioral sciences (SBS)
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From page 318... ...
These ideas come from an extremely diverse set of academic disciplines: there is no "field" of SBS. This long report addresses only a sampling of potentially relevant SBS research; the contributions to intelligence analysis represented by these opportunities -- and the landscape of opportunities we could not discuss here -- cannot be realized simply by adding features to existing programs.
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From page 319... ...
RECOMMENDATION 10-1: The leadership of the Intelligence Com munity should make sustained collaboration with researchers in the social and behavioral sciences a key priority as it develops research objectives for the coming decade. A multipronged effort to integrate the knowledge and perspectives of researchers from these fields into the planning and design of efforts to support intelligence analysis is most likely to reap the potential benefits described in this report.
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From page 320... ...
. Scholars have made broad recommendations for improving understanding and cooperation, such as encouraging scholars to spend time working in agencies and also encouraging analysts to spend time in academia; boosting the contributions of think tanks, which play a useful role in linking research to practice; and redesigning academic programs focused on intelligence (Marrin, 2012)
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From page 321... ...
. At the same time, members of the IC have found the task force's forecasts of instability valuable: data collected by the group have, for example, been used to develop the National Intelligence Council's warning list of weak and failing states.a aThis list has been prepared twice a year since 2005 (Wyler, 2008)
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From page 322... ...
By contrast, intelligence analysts must work around the need for varying levels of classification. Some SBS researchers have been reluctant to work on classified projects, which they perceive as placing restrictions on academic freedom, because of their scholarly commitment to open dissemination of research results, and universities have varying policies regarding the acceptance of contracts involving classified research (Goolsby, 2005)
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From page 323... ...
The nature of their job allows them little time for keeping up with developments in even a single academic field, and little of the classified training they receive is likely to focus on basic SBS research. The committee heard anecdotally of valuable opportunities for analysts to deepen their knowledge of SBS work, including opportunities to take college courses periodically, attend training seminars at conferences, take short courses offered by universities, and participate in training offered by the agencies.
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candidates that would allow SBS researchers to spend time in the IC and analysts to spend time in academic settings. Such options would require that onerous clearance and classification review constraints be relaxed.
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From page 325... ...
CLOSING THOUGHTS Addressing the barriers that interfere with productive collaboration between the IC and the SBS community will require that both communities have realistic expectations; a shared understanding of what SBS research can offer; and an understanding of "the inherent limitations in providing simple, universally applicable answers to complex social science questions," in the words of another National Academies committee, charged with examining the integration of SBS research into the weather enterprise (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2017, p.
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From page 326... ...
. Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences within the Weather Enterprise.
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From page 327... ...
. Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations.
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