A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis (2019) / Chapter Skim
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3 Global Context for the Decadal Study
3 Global Context for the Decadal Study
Pages 49-64
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From page 49... ...
, the committee needed to have a clear, current picture of the potential sources of risk to the security of the United States. Security risks grow out of complex, interacting trends and developments around the world, including political, economic, and social developments; threats to infrastructure and stability posed by rogue, nonstate actors (see Box 3-1)
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From page 50... ...
. The most recent report, published in 2017, identifies seven global trends and presents an assessment of both how these trends are affecting power dynamics and how those changes, in turn, may contribute to specific rising tensions.1 The report summarizes the seven global trends and their implications as follows (p.
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From page 51... ...
Automation and artificial intelligence threaten to change industries faster than economies can adjust, potentially displacing workers and limiting the usual route for poor countries to develop. Biotechnologies such as genome editing will revolutionize medicine and other fields, while sharpening moral differences.
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From page 52... ...
The report also describes the geopolitical outlook for world regions and highlights profound changes occurring in the international order established following World War II. The report closes with a discussion of ways leaders and nations might be able to increase their resilience and respond to recognized risks -- for example, by taking advantage of advancing technologies and other developments to improve cooperation and flexibility in response to shifts such as those in power dynamics.
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From page 53... ...
The report notes that "the primary transnational threats Americans face are from jihadist terrorists and transnational criminal organizations," which "rely on encrypted communication and the dark web," "thrive under conditions of state weakness," and in many cases are "sheltered and supported by states" (p.
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. This unclassified synopsis of the classified National Defense Strategy describes the strategic environment in which the U.S.
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From page 55... ...
4–5) : • Traditional adversaries will continue attempts to gain and assert influence, taking advantage of changing conditions in the interna tional environment -- including the weakening of the post-WWII international order and dominance of Western democratic ideals, increasingly isolationist tendencies in the West, and shifts in the global economy.
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From page 56... ...
The OECD and the World Economic Forum both provide assessments of global trends and risks that are intended to reflect the concerns of many countries. OECD, an independent, nonprofit organization, regularly assesses issues likely to directly affect its 34 member countries, as well as the rest of the world.
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From page 57... ...
: 1. Economic vulnerabilities, including market volatility, slowing eco nomic growth, the global debt burden, rising income and wealth disparities, and other strains on the global economy increase the risk of economic confrontations between major powers and erosion of multilateral rules and agreements.
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From page 58... ...
These assessments also reflect a shared concern that international structures that have served as a force for stability and democracy are being challenged. Global environmental changes and demographic shifts are interacting to amplify the pace and effects of other changes.
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From page 59... ...
. Source: World Economic Forum Economic Survey 2018–2019.
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First, emails obtained from hacks into the accounts of both the Democratic National Committee and candidate Clinton's campaign manager were released through surrogates at strategic times, such as after the Democratic convention. The second line of attack used trolls and bots on social media to cause lies -- such as that Clinton was in poor health -- to trend on social media so they would be picked up by the mainstream media.
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From page 61... ...
The backdrop for these developments is the effect of global climate change, which has been described as an "accelerant of instability" and which will be manifest through such issues as scarcity of water, food, and other resources; extreme weather; and dislocation of communities and populations ( merican Security Project, n.d.; Goldstein, 2016; National Research A Council, 2013; United Nations Climate Change, 2016)
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From page 62... ...
As the committee explored possible connections between emerging SBS research and sources of security risk, however, one thing became clear: understanding the human dimension is critical to addressing virtually any security challenge. REFERENCES American Security Project.
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From page 63... ...
. World Economic Forum.
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