A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis (2019) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
4 The Work of the Intelligence Analyst
4 The Work of the Intelligence Analyst
Pages 65-82
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 65... ...
Though many aspects of the agencies' work are not open to public view, the general functions and activities of the intelligence analyst can all be regarded as aspects of sensemaking -- using their expertise to seek understanding within the range of material to which they have access. This chapter sets the stage for the discussion in Part II of opportunities to use social and behavioral sciences (SBS)
|
From page 66... ...
We use the term "sensemaking" not to constrain the description of intelligence analysis but rather to convey its intellectual breadth. The challenge of sensemaking for intelligence analysts is akin to challenges faced by analysts in other sectors, such as business, risk analysis, or urban planning.1 The need to find meaning in complex, data-rich environments and to understand especially challenging -- "wicked" -- problems is not unique 1This meaning of the term "sensemaking" was introduced in the context of organizational science (Weick, 1995; see also Anacoda, 2012)
|
From page 67... ...
Stock analysts must consider diverse factors that may include trends within a single industry, as well as related industries whose fortunes may affect the one in question; the decision making of corporate leaders, consumers, and possibly policy makers in the United States and abroad; broad economic forces and trends; and even such external events as extreme weather or other consequences of global climate change, social trends, or fads. The investment analyst often must make quick decisions about the benefits of buying or selling stocks, knowing that the relevant information is limited, when potentially very large sums of money could be gained or lost.
|
From page 68... ...
" Or it may be more approachable through quantitative analysis, of such questions as "How much will India's economy grow over the next 10 years? " As these examples suggest, many if not most of the issues examined by intelligence analysts are also topics of study in the public domain, and analysts draw on academic research from many SBS disciplines, although mechanisms for their doing so are not as well established as they could be to serve the IC's needs, an issue discussed in Chapters 9 and 10.
|
From page 69... ...
The Analyst's Daily Activities Maintain an Inventory of Questions That Are Important for the Analyst's Assigned Account Analysts need to identify and track questions that reflect both their understanding of what policy makers want to know and their own appreciation of the issue at hand. They are not passive receptors of information provided by the agents who collect it and other sources; they provide parameters to help collectors focus on obtaining information that is key to narrowing intelligence gaps, and like social scientists, they help shape the design of data collection efforts.
|
From page 70... ...
Stay Abreast of Current Information Relevant to the Account Information of interest to the analyst includes classified intelligence collected on the account (e.g., through clandestine reporting, diplomatic reporting, or signals intelligence [SIGINT]
|
From page 71... ...
How does the analyst, for example, know which popular cultural themes are important to follow? For an analyst dealing with a highly specific, narrow issue, such as the activities of a particular military unit, filtering information flow may be more straightforward, but even here, broader context may be necessary to understanding the unit's movements and actions.
|
From page 72... ...
Sustaining Activities Apart from sorting through information and preparing intelligence reports, analysts, like any professionals, must engage in other activities just to maintain their expertise and advance their craft. When -- or perhaps if, given the tyranny of the present -- intelligence analysts are not addressing time-sensitive issues, they will likely turn their attention to medium- or longer-term projects, such as researching a report on the emergence of a new leader in Cuba or working with an analytic methodologist on a new application of link technology that can elucidate the leadership structure of a terrorist organization.
|
From page 73... ...
Developing such heuristics, updating them on a regular basis, and refining analytic questions are the steady baseline activities for the analyst. Individual analysts and teams of colleagues continuously review and develop the theories and models that provide fundamental support for intelligence analysis.
|
From page 74... ...
.4 As analysts absorb information, they must decide whether some of it needs to be communicated to others and if so, when and how. Analysts may be instructed to prepare intelligence reports for managers who also review the intelligence and information flow on a daily basis, or they may receive questions from policy makers.
|
From page 75... ...
Another complication arises if intelligence reports are particularly sensitive and require specific approval to be shared with a broader audience. Shepherding the intelligence report through an editorial process.
|
From page 76... ...
. The layers of the process typically include, but are not limited to, the analyst's immediate supervisor; the leader of the analytic office; a chief editor with duties not unlike those of a newspaper or journal editor; and in the case of the President's Daily Brief, a senior reviewer representing the leadership of the IC.
|
From page 77... ...
of the stakeholder Y countries Y COU Events NT COUNTR RY X Election Terrorist TRY B CO Y Attack UN O UN C T R B Y Weapons Y Y R Shipment T Shi pp ANALYTIC LENS: UN ing CO Ro Nationalistic or ut Vitriolic Rhetoric MONITORING es A COUNTRY Cargo Analysts following political Inspection developments in the region. FIGURE 4-1 Illustration of how analysts with different accounts associated with a particular region will regard the same set of circumstances through different lenses.
|
From page 78... ...
In Figure 4-1, a group of analysts closely follows terrorist group Z, which is conducting attacks against government installations in country Y While terrorist group Z acts independently, it is known to have a close relationship with country X, with which it shares cultural and religious beliefs.
|
From page 79... ...
LOOKING FORWARD The roles and tasks of intelligence analysts described above are classic ones, and they still apply. Analysts continuously develop new technical skills to support their analysis, but the fundamental nature and demands of the job have not changed significantly in the past few decades.
|
From page 80... ...
A second set of big changes is likely in the nature of what analysts produce and how it is conveyed to their policy clients. The IC will continue to produce exquisite analyses, but rapid growth has occurred in commercial products and services that could be adapted to support intelligence analysts.
|
From page 81... ...
. Intelligence analysts and policymakers: Benefits and dangers of tension in the relationship.
|
From page 82... ...
. The President's Daily Brief: Managing the relationship between intelli gence and the policymaker.
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.