Safeguarding the Bioeconomy (2020) / Chapter Skim
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6 Horizon Scanning and Forecast Methods
6 Horizon Scanning and Forecast Methods
Pages 233-272
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From page 233... ...
• Expert input from a variety of credible sources is critical to the suc cess of a horizon-scanning process. • In considering a horizon-scanning process for the bioeconomy, four key questions need to be addressed: -- Approach: Is the intent to enable scenario planning, or is it to identify specific issues that could have a policy impact?
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• Integrating horizon scanning into a broader foresight process will en able better policy making in the near term, providing for the ongoing timely identification of additional strategies that may be needed to safeguard new technologies and data, and for assessment of their im plications for innovation and biosecurity. A range of tools can be used to think about future risks and opportunities in a structured manner.
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The third phase involves envisioning desired futures and identifying specific policy actions for realizing them, based on the development of specific scenarios. This chapter considers horizon scanning in depth, starting with an exploration of how it is used as a policy tool.
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. It is important to recognize, however, that horizon scanning operates beyond a firm evidence base and relies on the instincts of those involved in the exercise (UK Government Office for Science, 2017)
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GOOD PRACTICES IN HORIZON SCANNING The Horizon-Scanning Process A number of different horizon-scanning processes have been described, including by the UK Government Office for Science (2017) , the European Union (EU)
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into other activities as part of a larger process, as is the case in the United Kingdom (UK Government Office for Science, 2013)
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. Increasing the policy impact -- A number of good practices for presenting and communicating the results of a horizon scan have been identified, including having a specific sponsor for horizon-scanning and futuring work; translating results in a more accessible manner; tailoring reporting to policy interests; matching timing to political timeframes; selecting experts to increase policy relevance; focusing on potential impacts of events discussed, as well as the timeframes involved; and structuring the results in a logical manner, whether by groups of issues identified or by relevant policy drivers.
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On evaluating the effectiveness of horizon scanning, the experts commented that attempts have been made to review the impact of past horizon scans. As might be expected, these efforts have demonstrated that some
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From page 241... ...
Examples of additional horizon scans are described in Annex 6-1, including efforts that have brought together separate horizon scans from different agencies and subject-specific scans in areas related to the bioeconomy, such as health, food safety, and the environment and conservation. Example of a Horizon Scan Connected to the Bioeconomy In 2017, a transatlantic horizon scan was published describing developments in biological engineering likely to have substantial impacts on global society.
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Highlighted as likely to have an impact within 5 years were five issues, including novel approaches to gene drives (which subsequently received notable backing for development from major science TABLE 6-1 Issues in Biological Engineering Likely to Have Substantial Impacts on Global Society in the Short, Medium, and Long Terms Issues Likely to Impact Issues Likely to Impact Issues Likely to Impact Within 5 Years in 5–10 Years in More Than 10 Years • Artificial • Regenerative medicine: • New makers disrupt photosynthesis and 3D printing of body pharmaceutical carbon capture for parts and tissue markets producing biofuels engineering • Platform technologies • Enhanced • Microbiome-based to address emerging photosynthesis therapies disease pandemics for agricultural • Producing vaccines • Challenges to productivity and human therapies taxonomy-based • New approaches to in plants descriptions and synthetic gene drives • Manufacturing illegal management of • Human genome editing drugs using engineered biological risk • Accelerating defense organisms • Shifting ownership agency research in • Reassigning codons as models in biological engineering genetic firewalls biotechnology • Rise of automated tools • Securing the critical for biological design, infrastructure test, and optimization needed to drive the • Biology as an bioeconomy information science: impacts on global governance • Intersection of information security and bioautomation • Effects of the Nagoya protocol on biological engineering • Corporate espionage and biocrime SOURCE: Adapted from Wintle et al., 2017.
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From page 243... ...
Example of Horizon Scanning Within the U.S. Intelligence Community Shortly after the start of each presidential term, NIC publishes "an unclassified strategic assessment of how key trends and uncertainties might shape the world over the next 20 years to help senior U.S.
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They have allowed commanders to plan for the unknown by both better understanding adversaries and preparing possible responses in advance of events.4 Example of Horizon-Scanning Tools Being Developed by an Agency Connected to Safeguarding the Bioeconomy In 2015, the Office of Technical Intelligence in the U.S. Department of Defense published an assessment of data analytics–enabled technology watch and horizon scanning (TW/HS)
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-- This process "requires careful balancing of relevance and breadth. It is critical to identify sources that are likely to provide signals relevant to the evaluation criteria and to maximize the signal to noise ratio." Selecting metrics (see the above discussion of methodological tools and lessons learned from past uses of horizon scanning)
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Examples of Environment- and Conservation-Related Horizon Scans One example of an international horizon-scanning effort related to the environment and conservation is a 2016 international study by academic authors from 11 countries that focused on issues likely to impact pollinators and pollination positively or negatively in the future and that succeeded in identifying six high-priority issues and nine secondary issues (Brown et al., 2016)
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. Alternatively, horizon scanning can be embedded in a more comprehensive foresight process that feeds the results of the scan into processes for assessing and understanding the consequent policy challenges, connecting them to possible future scenarios, and identifying specific policy actions designed to steer toward desirable outcomes.
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a,b,c Literature reviewa cross-impact systems and Morphological analysisa,b matricesa,b Relevance trees/logic chartsa,b Econometricsa Roadmappinga,b Simulation modelsa Stakeholder analysisa Role play/actinga a,b,c System dynamicsb Mixing econometrics, Horizon scanning simulation models, and Scenario workshopsa,b,c qualitative methodsa Science fictioninga Simulation gaming a,b Surveysa SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysisa,b Weak signals/wildcardsa Assumption-based planningb aIdentified in the Handbook of Technology Foresight (Popper, 2008)
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Roadmapping Roadmapping "shows how a range of inputs -- research, trends, policy interventions, for example -- will combine over time to shape future development of the policy or strategy area of interest" (UK Government Office for Science, 2017)
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Following discussion of the above questions, the committee concluded that best practices for horizon scanning include the considerations laid out below. Conclusion 6-1: Approach: Policy making for the bioeconomy will be facilitated by both scenario planning and the identification of issues that could have a policy impact.
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One-off horizon scans could be used to answer specific questions or drill down into specific issue areas. Such a process might follow an approach similar to that of the example horizon scan presented earlier in Figure 6-2.
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Foresight processes build on horizon scanning intended to identify issues that could have a policy impact, feeding into assessment and scenario-based processes for exploring policy options. How horizon scanning is integrated into broader foresight activities will depend on the ultimate purpose at hand.
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A model for such a foresight process that embraces both tasks can be found in two of the pathways included in the UK Government Office for Science's Futures Toolkit (see Box 6-1) : identifying future research and evidence priorities and identifying and prioritizing future opportunities and threats for action.
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. There have been numerous other attempts to define horizon scanning (European Commission, 2015; IRM, 2018; OECD, n.d.a; UK Government Cabinet Office, 2013)
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signals, as well as trends and wild cards (OECD, n.d.a; UK Gov ernment Cabinet Office, 2013) ; • looks further ahead than the standard electoral cycle, often into the medium or longer term (UK Government Cabinet Office, 2013; UK Government Office for Science, 2013)
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The UK process frames horizon scanning as a tool that "looks towards the long term (Horizon 2 to 3) but is not focused exclusively on it; many H3 developments are the long-term outcome of a range of factors, some of which are in play already" (UK Government Office for Science, 2017)
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. Efforts have been made as well to adapt advances in agent-based modeling in order to automate some of the analysis of the output from horizon scans (Frank, 2016)
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A sponsor would need to have the resources to sustain relevant work, the ability to feed the results into relevant policy-making processes, and a high-level interest in the work to ensure that neither the process nor the conclusions of the horizon scan would readily be sidelined. Speakers also discussed the importance of carefully considering how the output from foresight processes might best be used to inform decisions, i.e., how the future can be used to inform today's decisions.
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(European Commission, 2015)
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. CASE STUDIES OF HORIZON SCANNING Examples of Health-Related Horizon Scans There have been numerous efforts to use horizon scans to identify and prioritize emerging technology in the health sector.
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-- Founded in January 2011, this academic group conducts regular research into foresight methodologies and has been contracted in the past by the UK government to carry out relevant horizon scans.10 • Horizon Scanning and Futures Team, Department of Environ ment, Food and Rural Affairs (United Kingdom) -- "A leader in horizon scanning work at a global level, this group provides policy advice, identifies future risks and opportunities, and topic specific workshops."11 • European Food Safety Authority (EU)
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, have distilled lessons from their past use of horizon scanning. National Intelligence Council Global Trends Report Improvements in methodology integrated into the most recent iteration of the Global Trends report produced by the National Intelligence Council include (NIC, 2017)
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: • Background information versus horizon scanning -- In general, as horizon scanning is focused on what might happen in the future, the information used in scans should be new (from within the past few years)
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UK Government Based on the use of horizon scanning in the UK government, 10 key rules have been identified. Some of these rules have been discussed in this annex and in the main text of Chapter 6 -- for example, (1)
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ADDITIONAL TOOLS FOR FUTURE THINKING Superforecasting As discussed briefly in the main text of Chapter 6, in 2010, the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency (IARPA) created a program to explore how crowdsourcing can improve forecasting15: Generally, forecasts are prepared using expert judgment by individuals and small groups.
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. This process brings together in teams those individuals with a proven track record of being able to make more accurate predictions, supported by specialized tools and algorithms so as to further increase their accuracy.
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Efforts to identify and recruit additional individuals have continued through Good Judgment Open.19 Since the tournaments, the approach has been developed into a commercial service through Good Judgment, which works with governments, the financial sector, and civil society and nongovernmental organizations, providing forecasting, training services, and tools and techniques.20 UK Government Office for Science's Futures Toolkit In 2017, the UK Government Office for Science (GO-Science) published a Futures Toolkit that "policy professionals can use to embed long term strategic thinking in the policy and strategy process." It is intended to be "practical rather than theoretical and … based on GO-Science's own experience of running futures work and has been developed in collaboration with other government departments and futures practitioners who use these tools regularly in a wide range of settings" (UK Government Office for Science, 2017)
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It is a more time-consuming process that can take several weeks. The tools in the kit are then combined in different ways to meet different needs, as captured in a series of pathways (UK Government Office for Science, 2017)
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Pathway 6, "identifying futures research and evidence priorities," begins with horizon scanning but feeds the results into 7 Questions, issues papers, driver mapping, and then roadmapping. Pathway 7, "identifying and prioritizing future opportunities and threats for action," also starts with horizon scanning but feeds the results into driver mapping and SWOT analysis.
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Futures, foresight and horizon scanning. https://foresightprojects.blog.gov.uk/2018/03/08/the-ten-commandments of-horizon-scanning (accessed September 4, 2019)
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2011. Welcome to the Aus tralia and New Zealand Horizon Scanning Network (ANZHSN)
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2006. The cultural contradictions of managing change: Using horizon scanning in an evidence-based policy context.
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