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Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories Proceedings of a Workshop (2019) / Chapter Skim
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4 Setting Official Estimates: The Hog Board
Pages 19-26

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From page 19...
... with the previous quarter and with previous-year same-quarter inventories expressed as a percentage, the number of sows farrowed (giving birth) during the past quarter, the pig crop, and sow farrowing intentions for the next two quarters (by month)
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From page 20...
... The data show fewer producers in 2017, but much of the inventory is concentrated in large operations. THE ESTIMATION PROCESS Riggins summarized the NASS estimation process, which involves Riggins himself as the headquarters hog statistician, regional field office statisticians, and the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB)
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From page 21...
... Revisions Riggins explained that to start the process, the headquarters hog statistician, livestock branch chief, livestock section head, and a methods branch representative determine whether revisions are necessary for the previous three quarters (for the March, June, or September publications) or for up to seven previous quarters for the December publication.
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From page 22...
... The Agricultural Statistics Board Riggins reported that the ASB is composed of the NASS statistics division director, national hog statistician, livestock branch chief, livestock section head, methods branch representative, survey administration representative, and two or three regional field office representatives. The purpose of the meeting is to set national targets for select inventory
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From page 23...
... One method compares the matched record ratio.1 There is discussion about the weather, industry news, slaughter plants, regional field office comments, and comments about disease that may have come in during the survey process. During the past year, for example, African swine fever and its potential effect on the American hog producer was a topic of discussion.
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From page 24...
... After national targets are set, the headquarters statistician works with the regional field office representatives over the next few business days. They use a top-down approach to setting the national- and statelevel estimates.
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From page 25...
... Lee Schulz referred to the trade expectations, noting a balance sheet approach is used. He asked about the possibility of NASS using the trade expectations data.
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From page 26...
... The Hog Board, in the course of a 2-hour meeting, discusses slaughter data, weather conditions, and disease, he added. Kerestes said that after the ASB meeting, Riggins finalizes weight category inventories and state numbers, making sure all information is accounted for, makes biological sense within each state, and adds up to the national level.
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Key Terms

  • trade expectations
  • hog board
  • slaughter data
  • national targets
  • previous quarter

  • regional field
  • field office
  • hog statistician
  • reference date
  • sows farrowed

  • survey process
  • riggins replied
  • current quarter
  • balance sheets
  • balance sheet

  • methods branch
  • headquarters hog
  • survey reference
  • national agricultural
  • riggins explained

  • survey results
  • process riggins
  • branch representative
  • office statisticians
  • estimation process

  • office representatives
  • pigs reported
  • livestock branch
  • statistics board
  • agricultural statistics


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