Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories Proceedings of a Workshop (2019) / Chapter Skim
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2 Motivation and Challenges
2 Motivation and Challenges
Pages 5-12
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hog inventories by category, as well as estimates for selected states. Hog inventory is a Federal Principal Economic Indicator and, as such, has clear requirements for publication.1 Variables collected on the Quarterly Hog Inventory Survey (described in Chapter 3)
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Estimates and standard errors would be based on survey data, as well as reflect the internal relationships in the data between and within quarters. It could reflect long-term trends and seasonal patterns, localized geographic events or differences, and composition of inventory based on biology (breeding, growth, death, market)
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. Publicly available data include the historical official NASS estimates for all inventory items at the national level and state level (for selected states)
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, as well as an operation's response that can be localized and dynamic. Natural disasters tend to have localized impacts, slaughterhouse capacity limitations may be regional, and market forces can be national, regional, or localized.
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MOTIVATION AND CHALLENGES 9 FIGURE 2-1 Total hog inventory, United States, Iowa, and Colorado, March 2012–November 2015. SOURCE: Prepared by Nell Sedransk for presentation at the workshop.
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Another question is whether the model should be top down, starting at the national level and partitioning down to the state level, or bottom up, starting at the operator level or state level and aggregating up to the national level. Good data are key to a successful modeling effort, she stressed.
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State recommendations and survey estimates are prepared by field office staff who are experienced in working with the hog data. Ensor asked about automation of the data collection process.
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Part of the reason the data collection extends so long is the need to feel comfortable with estimates from key operators. Sometimes there are delays from one of the operators, and numbers must be adjusted as a consequence of that additional information.
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