Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories Proceedings of a Workshop (2019) / Chapter Skim
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8 Discussion of Detection and Monitoring
8 Discussion of Detection and Monitoring
Pages 53-62
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From page 53... ...
Types of surveillance include active or routine, observational or passive, and to support trade. Active surveillance involves purposeful types of sampling and testing for specific diseases that APHIS has authority to monitor or are part of an eradication program.
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The three high-profile foreign animal diseases now are African swine fever, classical swine fever, and foot-and-mouth disease. Branan explained that there are other reportable domestic diseases identified from a list provided by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE)
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The Animal Health Protection Act provides general authority for APHIS to control, prevent, and monitor various diseases. The Swine Health Protection Act is focused on garbage feeder operations.
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First, the disease response plans or Red Books provide guidance for responding to a disease outbreak. They have surveillance plans for classical swine fever and foot-and-mouth disease during an outbreak.
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APHIS economic impact modeling is a quarterly partial equilibrium model that relies heavily on population data. Johnson showed a graph related to foot-and-mouth disease vaccination scenarios.
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PANEL DISCUSSION Schulz asked whether APHIS and NASS could collaborate and share information in real time, such as the results from web scraping. Johnson replied APHIS would be interested in how to format FSIS information to make it most useful to NASS.
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These are state-space models.1 Lawson referred to comments in earlier sessions about going down to the unit level in spatial modeling. In his view, the most sensitive modeling of disease spread might be at the unit level.
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However, this possibility is very unlikely because infectious diseases are transmitted by contact and the network of contacts among hogs constrains the spread of infectious diseases. For example, an outbreak of an infectious disease on a farm in Colorado could spread directly to all farms that purchased hogs from the affected farm, but it could not spread directly to farms that did not purchase hogs from the affected farm.
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It started with classical swine fever and have recently adapted the parameters for African swine fever, because those diseases are similar in many ways. APHIS has also been developing an animal disease spread model, but it is not yet operational.
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Ron Plain noted the focus on big shocks and new diseases, but he asked about data to estimate death loss for chronic diseases, such as PRRS or swine dysentery, to determine whether levels are high, low, or typical. Even though they may not be big shocks, it would be interesting to see whether the deviation is enough to impact pork production, he said.
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