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Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories Proceedings of a Workshop (2019) / Chapter Skim
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11 Discussion of Visions for the Future
Pages 79-84

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From page 79...
... The model should be closer to the final estimate than the initial estimate is now. The demonstration that it meets that goal is it must use data since 2008 and include challenging situations such as natural disasters and disease.
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From page 80...
... Datta replied the states were grouped into nine geographic regions, with each state in one region. The example used a state-space time series approach to borrow strength, and the authors introduced benchmarking to make regional predictions to add to the total.
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From page 81...
... Chris Wikle reiterated his suggestion that NASS consider integrated population models that are being used in the ecological literature. They consider multiple types of data, including survey or sampling-based data with state-space models.
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From page 82...
... It may be that NASS would also benefit from a mix of data-based estimates and expert judgment, each accounting for uncertainty. Andrew Lawson said that the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in the United Kingdom was highly publicized and modeled in real time by people at Imperial College.
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From page 83...
... Slud observed that even though shocks may result in changes to the optimal model, an acceptable solution might be derived as simply increasing the variance of the state equation in the KFM. To capture some of Lawson's thoughts, Slud suggested an alternative might be to look at how the time series parameter estimates vary when the KFM was estimated during the epidemic and recovery periods of the PEDv epidemic when the model should be most adaptable.
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From page 84...
... . A composite based on them might be useful, he added, and it might be interesting to examine the residuals at the state level to see whether they suggest model deficiencies.
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Key Terms

  • expert judgment
  • final estimate
  • time series
  • population models
  • state level

  • pedv epidemic
  • integrated population
  • capture histories
  • capture uncertainty
  • composite estimate

  • survey error
  • regional predictions
  • tive bid
  • epidemic models
  • composite based

  • geographic regions
  • emerging disease
  • provides examples
  • capture various
  • pfeffermann example

  • challenging situations
  • particular variance
  • suggested using
  • current situation
  • initial estimate

  • disease outbreak
  • series parameter
  • borrow strength
  • previous values
  • sedransk observed


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