Reducing Fuel Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles, Phase Two Final Report (2020) / Chapter Skim
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2 Setting the Stage: Regulatory Horizons, Challenges, and Influences
2 Setting the Stage: Regulatory Horizons, Challenges, and Influences
Pages 17-45
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From page 17... ...
Because this report is addressing technologies and strategies for reducing fuel consumption and GHG emissions from MHDVs that will be fully implemented more than a decade into the future, we necessarily take a prospective and horizon-scanning approach in this analysis. Over the time period in which Phase III standards might be adopted and implemented, many important changes and advancements are likely in vehicle technology and costs, transportation systems and planning, fuel availability and price, other measures and policies affecting MHDV fuel economy and GHG emissions, and in the economic and political circumstances of the nation and world.
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The most recent EIA Annual Energy Outlook (AEO; EIA, 2015) projects that the number of vehicle miles traveled by freight trucks (> 10,000 pounds)
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Finding: Technological, market, economic, and policy variables make future projection of fuel consumption and GHG emissions by MHDVs highly uncertain. This can result from both structural changes within energy markets and price volatility and fluctuations within market structures.
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FIGURE 2-4 Annual Energy Outlook (2015) projections for fuel consumption for freight trucks (> 10,000 pounds)
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One study of freight transported by MHDVs in California found that GHG emissions could be reduced in that subsector by 80 percent by 2050 from a 1990 baseline by implementing zero emission vehicle and fuel technologies at an aggressive rate (Nahlik et al., 2015) , 1 This discussion of an 80 percent emissions reduction goal in the MHDV sector is provided for illustrative purposes only, without implying endorsement of any specific goal, a matter for policy makers and beyond the scope of this report.
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. They concluded that a GHG emissions reduction goal 14 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 cannot be achieved.
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TABLE 2-1 Summary of Studies Reviewed That Included Large GHG Emissions Reductions Goals for MHDVs in the United States or a Region Within the United States Author (Date) GHG Reductions Goal Technologies Selected Deep Decarbonization Pathways Reduce emissions in the U.S.
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To meet a 2050 milestone that achieves large GHG reductions, fleet turnover can absorb a decade, and another decade may be required for the development and phase-in of advanced propulsion technologies and new fuel and/or freight movement infrastructure. Thus the technologies conceived by 2030 will take until 2050 to completely diffuse into the fleet.
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Once made, these investments are unlikely to be pushed aside in favor of a more promising advanced technology and/or fuel option that could achieve greater reductions in fuel consumption and GHG emissions, and decision makers would need to deal with a long-lasting and potentially suboptimal infrastructure. The timing of the investment in the portfolio is also critical: If this investment waits until after a Phase III rulemaking has commenced, the available technology choices may not evolve beyond the mix of diesel and natural gas combustion engines and trucks and tractors that is currently available.
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From page 26... ...
These issues may include, but are not limited to, development of an effective in-use compliance strategy, a methodology for analyzing and comparing life-cycle GHG emissions of different fuel options, a strategy for integrating fuel economy and emission standards with other policies and methods for reducing GHG emissions and fuel consumption (e.g., intermodal shifts, weight and height regulations, carbon tax, etc.) , and a technological roadmap for deployment of vehicles that can potentially have near-zero emissions such as electric and fuel cell vehicles.
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From page 27... ...
Complexities include defining fuel economy for regulatory purposes; the effects of exogenous factors such as volatility in fuel prices; the need to consider vehicle components other than the engine and powertrain since these affect fuel consumption and GHG emissions; the significance of vehicle weight and length for the payload carried (and thus the freight efficiency) ; the variety and diversity of vehicle types and functions that complicate manufacturing, regulation, and enforcement; the diversity in the size and capabilities of companies in the MHDV sector; differences in the results of life-cycle analyses of different fuel options; challenges in ensuring effective certification and in-use compliance; and miscellaneous other factors affecting fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.
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and projected oil prices in constant dollars from 1985 to 2018. Each dashed line corresponds to a set of oil price projections from the reference case outputs in the Annual Energy Outlook produced by the EIA.
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2.2.3 Factors Other than Engine/Powertrain Affecting Fuel Consumption/GHG Emissions Improving the efficiency of the engine and drivetrain is an important approach to reducing fuel consumption and CO2 emissions; however, a third complexity is that many factors impact fuel consumption, aside from engine and powertrain operation. Of the fuel consumed by a Class 8 tractor-trailer moving at constant highway speed, roughly 40 percent provides tractive power to overcome road load -- aerodynamic drag and rolling resistance.
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From page 30... ...
Although the Phase II regulations respond to the recommendations of the NRC Phase Two First Report to adopt performance standards for most new trailers, opportunities to further reduce the energy use caused by trailers, such as trailer redesign, aerodynamic improvements to non-box trailers, weight reduction, and better integration with tractors, may be possible in the time frame of a third phase of rulemaking. 2.2.3.2 Tires Tires represent another vehicle component that provides potential for reducing the vehicle's fuel consumption and GHG emissions.
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The European Commission reviewed and reaffirmed the directive8 after one manufacturer and Germany's Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA) identified a risk of flammability of HFO-1234y, a substitute for HFC-134a, in head-on collisions.9 Finding: NHTSA and EPA have adopted requirements in the Phase II rule that will reduce fuel consumption and/ or GHG emissions caused by nonengine components such as trailers, tires, and air conditioning.
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Whether benefits and/or incentives are available to the driver will play a significant role in whether the vehicle is driven in the most efficient manner. All this will produce a complex mix of technology features and behaviors which will play a role in the control of GHG emissions and improve fuel economy in the future.
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The current regulatory design only includes GHG emissions from the tailpipe and to
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. Similarly, direct GHG emissions from natural gas MHDVs could lead to the conclusion that these are net emissions savers.
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These compliance programs have identified many in-use light-duty vehicles with high emissions, for which design changes were made through recalls, and also identified opportunities to improve the effectiveness of the regulations. For MHDV Class 4 and above, the current regulation for GHG emissions and fuel economy, when compared to the program for passenger vehicles, falls considerably short of providing an assurance of compliance and program effectiveness.
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These data can be used to establish a regulatory baseline that can be used to evaluate program effectiveness and future regulatory priorities. 2.2.9 Other Factors Affecting Fuel Efficiency There are a number of other factors that can affect the fuel efficiency and GHG emissions performance of a MHDV.
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In addition to these regulatory programs that directly regulate the fuel conservation or GHG emissions of MHDVs, there are a number of other regulatory programs, also discussed below, that indirectly affect fuel consumption and GHG emissions associated with the MHDV sector. 2.3.1 Other Programs Directly Regulating MHDV Fuel Efficiency and GHG Emissions 2.3.1.1 States Under federal clean air law, only California can adopt its own emission limits for new vehicles, which must be at least as stringent as the EPA standards.
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From page 38... ...
Thus SmartWay can continue to encourage improvements to existing tractor-trailer combinations. 2.3.2 Other Regulatory Programs That Indirectly Affect Fuel Consumption and GHG Emissions Many other regulatory programs indirectly affect fuel consumption and GHG emissions of MHDVs and may intersect with or otherwise affect the NHTSA and EPA MHDV standards.
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From page 39... ...
CARB and the South Coast Air Quality Management District have begun the process of determining how to achieve the additional NOx reductions needed from diesel trucks. The agencies are sponsoring studies of approaches to optimize selective catalytic reduction control efficiency, and to achieve lower emissions from natural gas vehicles.
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The Climate Action Plan sets a goal of reducing annual U.S. GHG emissions in the range of 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020.
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At the state level, California requires GHG emissions to be reduced to 1990 levels by 2020, and 40 percent below this level by 2030. This is being accomplished by source-specific regulatory action, such as the GHG standards for new cars and trucks, renewable fuel requirements for in-state power plants, the Low Carbon Fuel Standard for transportation fuels, GHG reduction targets to be achieved by local governments through improved planning, recovery of hydrofluorocarbons, and a cap-and-trade program which generates funds that are used to achieve reductions in GHG emissions.
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. Conversion of natural gas to petroleum-like liquid fuel, without carbon capture and sequestration, also results in GHG emissions similar to conventional petroleum fuels.
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2016. Greenhouse gas emissions and fuel efficiency standards for medium- and heavy-duty engines and vehicles -- Phase 2.
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2014. Reducing the Fuel Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles, Phase 2: First Report.
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2011. Policy Options for Reducing Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from U.S.
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