Forced Migration Research From Theory to Practice in Promoting Migrant Well-Being: Proceedings of a Workshop (2019) / Chapter Skim
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8 Issues and Innovations in Population Modeling and Projections
8 Issues and Innovations in Population Modeling and Projections
Pages 69-76
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From page 69... ...
• New tools and approaches used by demographers to estimate, understand, and forecast migration include the use of stock data to estimate flows, the use of nontraditional data sources (e.g., social media) , theoretical frameworks that seek to capture the complexity and interactions of the drivers of migration, and the use of multidimensional population projections to forecast migration.
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From page 70... ...
Frydenlund said that unlike traditional tools, which result in static pictures that reveal little about the dynamics of a system, simulations relate dynamic variables to one another. Ethnography is a rich contextual form of research that may not translate to another context, but simulation models might help determine whether the ethnographic findings hold with a wide range of ideas and theories, she said.
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From page 71... ...
As an example of how to overcome this problem, the York University Centre for Refugee Studies is working with the Virginia Modeling, Analysis, and Simulation Center at Old Dominion University to build protocols for aid workers, policy makers, and academics to communicate across disciplinary lines and facilitate the building of models. The results of modeling can be so compelling that modelers are tempted to give the results immediately to policy makers, but Frydenlund urged caution.
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From page 72... ...
The first tool she described was the use of indirect estimation methods to derive bilateral migration flows to provide a more dynamic view of migration patterns. Stocks give the numbers of migrants, defined by their birthplace, who are living in a country at a point in time.
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From page 73... ...
For example, environmental factors are usually considered indirect drivers in which environmental change may influence migration through affecting other factors underlying migration such as income or agriculture. Black's model provides a conceptual framework that describes the direct and indirect pathways through which environmental change drives migration.
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From page 74... ...
Then, multidimensional population methods can yield multistate population projections. As an example, Muttarak briefly described the process of adding demographic characteristics beyond age and sex, such as education attainment, religion, place of residence, or ethnicity, into a population pyramid.
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From page 75... ...
To some extent, this will require involving younger generations of researchers who are more steeped in these techniques, she said. It also will pose issues in terms of checking the robustness of results, since data will often be context specific.
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