Identification of Factors Contributing to the Decline of Traffic Fatalities in the United States from 2008 to 2012 (2020) / Chapter Skim
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1 Objective The research objective, as outlined in the original request for proposal, was to "provide a multidisciplinary analysis of the relative influence of the types of factors that contributed to the recent national decline in the number of highway fatalities and rates in the United States." Between 2005 and 2011, peak to trough, the number of traffic fatalities in the United States declined by 11,031, from 43,510 in 2005 to 32,479 in 2011 (see Figure S-1)
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2 Identification of Factors Contributing to the Decline of Traffic Fatalities in the United States from 2008 to 2012 Haddon Matrix was to ensure that all components of what might be called the crash system -- vehicle, drivers, and environment -- were considered. Two fundamental processes were at work over the period.
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Summary 3 fatalities on U.S. roads.
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4 Identification of Factors Contributing to the Decline of Traffic Fatalities in the United States from 2008 to 2012 2007 was evaluated. Statistical models of the incidence of traffic fatalities over the period were developed using these parameters.
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Summary 5 Variable Expected association with traffic fatalities Expected mechanism Total VMT Positive Increase in VMT increases exposure to traffic crashes and therefore fatalities. Proportion rural VMT Positive Increased proportion of rural VMT increases proportion of travel on riskier roads, leading to more fatalities.
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6 Identification of Factors Contributing to the Decline of Traffic Fatalities in the United States from 2008 to 2012 Variable Change in parameter value from 2007 to 2011 MNCS model MCS model Predicted change in fatalities Statistically significant at 5% level? Predicted change in fatalities Statistically significant at 5% level?
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Summary 7 • Rural VMT bears a higher risk of fatal crashes across all road types; reduction in the proportion of rural VMT was significant in all models. Programs aimed at reducing the risk of rural travel can substantially reduce traffic fatalities.
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