Guidance for Calculating the Return on Investment in Transit State of Good Repair (2019) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 65-78
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From page 65... ...
65 C H A P T E R 5 Introduction and Approach The guidance described in Chapter 4 of this report aids transit agencies in identifying the full impacts of state of good repair (SGR) investments versus other investment options and is useful to transit agencies of different sizes and modes.
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From page 66... ...
66 Guidance for Calculating the Return on Investment in Transit State of Good Repair Pilot 1: Pacific Transit Agency Overview The pilot with the Pacific Transit Agency tested the ROI calculation guidance and specifically looked at investments made on a North-to-South 22-mile light rail line for refurbishments to the guideway and other assets. This light rail line, called the Pacific Rail Line in this summary, was built over 20 years ago and has assets approaching the end of their useful line.
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From page 67... ...
Pilot Summaries 67 consumer surplus calculation is used so that a lost trip is not treated as a pure reduction in travel time costs. Likewise, when a passenger transfers to transit from another modes besides automobile travel, the benefit they perceive from making the mode switch is approximated by the change in consumer surplus, partially offsetting the resulting increased transit travel time cost.
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From page 68... ...
68 Guidance for Calculating the Return on Investment in Transit State of Good Repair Implications for the ROI Calculation Guidance Overall, the Pacific Transit Agency pilot is extremely valuable as a test of the ROI calculation guidance and as confirmation that the guidance tends to predict a positive return for investments to restore an asset to SGR. Two additional outcomes of the pilot are • The pilot served to test the use of average asset age for predicting future O&M costs.
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From page 69... ...
Pilot Summaries 69 • The team used TAPT to predict agency costs for the investment and base cases; • The team then used the EJT Calculator described in TCRP Research Report 198 to predict EJT for the investment and base cases; and • Finally, the team used the Return on Investment Calculator to calculate ROI of investing in SGR relative to deferring needed investments. TAPT Analysis The TAPT revenue vehicle model was used for modeling buses and light rail vehicles (LRV)
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70 Guidance for Calculating the Return on Investment in Transit State of Good Repair • The headway and trains per day for each segment were determined based on published schedules; and • The track type, age, and failure rate were established based on the data on the inventory in TAPT. The failure rate was set to match the number of failures predicted by TAPT, which was predicted in terms of failures per year rather than per train mile in that tool.
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Pilot Summaries 71 Figure 5-3. ROI results for Pilot 2 -- Summary Measures.
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From page 72... ...
72 Guidance for Calculating the Return on Investment in Transit State of Good Repair Additional economic impacts from SGR investments are estimated using the ROI calculation guidance. Investments in SGR maintenance are expected to increase transit ridership by 2.3 million trips per year, relative to the base case in which SGR investments are deferred.
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From page 73... ...
Pilot Summaries 73 Pilot 3: New England Transit Agency Overview Two pilots were identified with a New England Transit Agency: 1) an analysis of the transit agency's 2014 investment in Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM)
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74 Guidance for Calculating the Return on Investment in Transit State of Good Repair Figure 5-5. ROI results for Pilot 3 Bay Line RCM Program -- Summary Measures.
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Pilot Summaries 75 The New England Transit Agency's investment has additional benefits that are not fully captured through the analysis. The analysis is also subject to a number of assumptions.
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76 Guidance for Calculating the Return on Investment in Transit State of Good Repair and fuel costs for two scenarios: the investment scenario in which the existing ferries are replaced (one in 2017 and the other in 2018) and the base case in which replacement is deferred.
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Pilot Summaries 77 and several caveats on the analysis. Factors to consider in interpreting the model results include the following: • Additional costs and benefits associated with keeping the existing ferries in service are not modeled in the analysis.
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From page 78... ...
78 Guidance for Calculating the Return on Investment in Transit State of Good Repair the Bay Line in-service failures, going beyond readily available summary data such as overall failure rates. • In the case of the commuter boat service, the New England Transit Agency invested in two new ferries to substitute for the service provided by two aging vessels.
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