Traffic Forecasting Accuracy Assessment Research (2020) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
Pages 133-142
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 133... ...
III-C-1 Deep Dive Annotated Outline A P P E N D I X C 1 Introduction |
From page 134... ...
Table III-C-1. Traffic volume accuracy assessment (columns in yellow require numerical input)
|
From page 135... ...
Appendix C: Deep Dive Annotated Outline III-C-3 4 Potential Sources of Forecast Error This section identifies the exogenous forecasts and project assumptions used in the development of the traffic forecasts. Exogenous forecasts are made outside of the immediate traffic forecasting process.
|
From page 136... ...
Table III-C-2. Input accuracy assessment table (columns in yellow require input)
|
From page 137... ...
Appendix C: Deep Dive Annotated Outline III-C-5 5 Contributing Sources to Forecast Error Building upon the items discussed in Section 4, this section attempts to identify items that are important sources of forecast error and, if so, attempt to quantify how much it would change the forecast if the forecasters had accurate information about the item. Adjusted forecasts for the critical roadways are computed by applying an elasticity to the relative change between the actual and predicted values for each item in Section 4.
|
From page 138... ...
Table III-C-3. Forecast adjustment table (elasticity adjustments)
|
From page 139... ...
Appendix C: Deep Dive Annotated Outline III-C-7 If the travel model or other method used to produce the traffic forecasts is available, then rerun the model or method, following the original method to the extent possible but using corrected exogenous forecasts and project assumptions. Report the results here.
|
From page 140... ...
Table III-C-4. Forecast adjustment table (travel model adjustments)
|
From page 141... ...
Appendix C: Deep Dive Annotated Outline III-C-9 6 Discussion This section discusses how the findings in Section 5 relate to Section 3 and Section 4. This section should then address the following questions: Would the project decision have changed if the forecast accuracy or reliability were improved?
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.