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3 Market Evolution
Pages 31-40

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From page 31...
... The committee was presented with a wide range of various projected times in the future for advanced aerial mobility operational implementations of different types, each a snapshot of an isolated scenario. For example, initial urban air mobility (UAM)
From page 32...
... BUILDING TOWARD AN INTEGRATED AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT SYSTEM As noted previously, a key infrastructure requirement for operational implementation of advanced aerial mobility is one or more systems that supply effective air traffic management (ATM) for operations not presently covered by voice-centric FAA ATM services.
From page 33...
... "Platform agnostic design supports multiple vehicles enabling mission tailoring," according to one press release, so that there is strong market participation in creating autonomous air vehicles that, by dint of their current piloted participation in large cargo operations, will easily answer questions of the infrastructure for loading/unloading, and meshing of these autonomous operations with manned operations.4 While initial operations do not seem to be planned as electrically powered vertical takeoff and landing, these large autonomous vehicles will need to be part of the autonomous vehicle overall integration into the National Airspace System that is part and parcel of this report's scope. Small Cargo Advanced Aerial Mobility operations.
From page 34...
... Second, several major air carriers have explored the viability of utilizing advanced aerial mobility vehicles for rural cargo delivery already. Some have even demonstrated how small drones and conventional delivery trucks can work in concert in order to achieve superior overall efficiency system-wide, reducing time and cost in delivering goods to rural customers (see Box 3.1)
From page 35...
... Finding: The economics and compelling value propositions to support the deployment of a cargo carrier UAS exists and has been quantified by commercial cargo operators. Finding: The commercial cargo market appears to be a receptive, prepared, and very promising "initial adopter" of autonomous cargo drone technology/capability for rural domestic cargo operations.
From page 36...
... Finding: There is real risk that the United States may not act quickly enough from a regulatory standpoint to achieve the full potential of advanced aerial mobility. This may result in the nation essentially ceding a leadership role in the definition of the enhanced aerial mobility market segment in the near term if things are done as they have always been done or if this new air mobility paradigm is forced to fit within the current airspace system regulatory framework.
From page 37...
... Through ongoing work, standards development organizations like ASTM, RTCA, SAE, ANSI, and others are developing system and operational performance requirements leading to operational approvals and certification of UAS. The existing standards development process includes the creation of foundational concepts of operation and scenarios that describe an integrated airspace model supporting advanced aerial mobility.
From page 38...
... Finding: A National Airspace System that delivers safety, access for increasingly autonomous systems, and scalability, yet that makes few constraining assumptions about specific anticipated flight operations, will deliver flexibility to explore applications of advanced aerial mobility and to adapt gracefully to future increases in scale and capability. Finding: A definition of a series of successively more complex capability milestones and associated requirements sets including the architectural components of the system that will support them is needed.
From page 39...
... ENHANCING AND REFINING THE NASA NATIONAL CAMPAIGN PROGRAM NASA's desire to develop a robust portfolio of technologies that enable mission agencies and commercial firms to create safe and effective advanced aerial mobility is challenged by significant market uncertainty, including uncertainty sourced from the emergence of nontraditional participants and their novel approaches, objective functions, and constraints derived from unique business models. By definition, highly entrepreneurial approaches are distinguished by their disruptive approach to perform some key function in advanced aerial mobility.
From page 40...
... related to new entrants and entrepreneurial approaches. Finding: One of NASA's priorities for the National Campaign program is to pioneer the research, systems, and concepts of operations to enable advanced aerial mobility in the National Airspace System.


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