Deployment of Deep Decarbonization Technologies Proceedings of a Workshop (2019) / Chapter Skim
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2 Modeling Results to Meet Climate Goals
2 Modeling Results to Meet Climate Goals
Pages 6-19
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. Gallagher mentioned that climate models represent our best efforts at understanding and representing the complex climate and energy system, and are thereby useful for charting our trajectory to meet climate goals.
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IPCC found that net zero emissions of carbon dioxide should be achieved by 2050 to have a reasonable chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era, or by 2070 to limit global warming to 2.0°C. Clarke noted that much of the existing academic and nonprofit research focuses on pathways toward reaching 80 percent emissions reductions by 2050 (the "80-by-50" scenarios)
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Report of the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project of the Sustainable Development Solutions Network and the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations. Revision with technical supplement, November 16, 2015; (2)
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DECARBONIZING THE UNITED STATES: CHALLENGES OF SCALE, SCOPE, AND RATE Jim Williams, University of San Francisco, and Director, Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project Jim Williams agreed with Leon Clarke that the three pillars of decarboni ation are energy efficiency, low carbon electricity, and fuel z switching, including in the transportation sector. Williams presented two Sankey diagrams, representing the energy system in 2014 and a low carbon scenario for 2050 with high renewable energy generation, as shown in Figure 2.2.
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The U.S. Report of the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project of the Sustainable Development Solutions Network and the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations.
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He also said that emissions reductions in some sectors, such as electricity and LDVs, will need to outpace economy-wide targets, as there are some sectors that will be more challenging to decarbonize, such as industry and freight shipping. To meet deeper emission reduction targets such as net-zero carbon dioxide by mid-century, some form of CCUS will be required, whether through capture of concentrated emissions sources such as biorefineries or cement plants, through land use practices that increase the natural capacity of the terrestrial carbon dioxide sink, or through applications of direct air capture (DAC)
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Jones, 2015, Policy Implications of Deep Decarbonization in the United States. A report of the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project of the Sustainable Developments Solutions Network and the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, 13 November 17, 2015.
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takes additional decades, anywhere from 20-60 years. Rai listed the duration of formative phases and diffusion phase for various technologies (shown in Figure 2.4)
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Nemet, 2016, Apples, oranges, and consistent comparisons of the temporal dynamics of energy transitions, Energy Research and Social Science 22:18-25, with permission from Elsevier.
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In Rai's own integrated modeling, he found that regardless of the details of a particular decarbonization pathway, CCS technology needs to commence its formative phase soon, or the technology will not be sufficiently mature to enter the growth phase when the rest of the energy system is ready to deploy. Recent cancellations of CCS projects in Europe suggest that this long formative phase and the subsequent learning curves are not being sufficiently undertaken to support a rapid deployment and diffusion.
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Thurber, 2010, Carbon capture and storage at scale: Lessons from the growth of analogous energy 17 technologies, Energy Policy 38(8) :4089-4098, with permission from Elsevier.
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He added that stranded assets and the retirement of gas infrastructure may be inevitable, either due to mandated building electrification, or simply to market mechanisms, as the share of residual customers using gas decreases and prices rise as a result. He also noted that some localities may want to consider taking a close look at low carbon gas fuels that could avoid the need for electrification retrofits.
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He stated that we will likely always have a need for natural gas generation capacity for times of wind and solar undergeneration, although constrained to very low levels by carbon dioxide limits. The panel was asked if they believe that the public is ready for the high costs associated with deep decarbonization.
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