Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications (2019) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 32-36
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25 CHAPTER 3 ANALYSIS SCENARIOS Findings from the literature review were used to develop analysis scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios bracket a broad range of potential future ZEV fleet changes that can be used to support transportation agencies in planning for potential outcomes beyond ZEV adoption rates in 2019.
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26 Numerous peer-reviewed articles on work using MA3T have been published (e.g., Lin and Greene 2011, Greene et al.
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27 • MA3T estimates that the growth in sales will begin to slow in 2030, which happens to be the target year for a goal of 5 million PHEVs, BEVs, and FCEVs on the road in California. This goal spurred the ZEV program, though it is not clear if the goal is accounted for in the AEO forecast and carried over to MA3T.
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28 These differences are likely a result of the different assumptions used in estimating the future ZEV populations. These differences include (1)
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29 technology, access to HOV lanes, availability of charging infrastructure, and availability of incentives. Four key scenarios were developed where changes in the underlying factors would likely result in the largest changes in ZEV adoption.
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