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Rapid Expert Consultation
Pages 1-4

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From page 1...
... Ned Calonge, The Colorado Trust; Sue Curry, University of Iowa; and Steven Teutsch, University of California, Los Angeles, reviewed this document, and Ellen Wright Clayton, Vanderbilt University, approved the document on behalf of the Report Review Committee. The attached materials summarize evidence bearing on the effectiveness of social distancing measures, and they demonstrate that social distancing measures are effective.
From page 2...
... cities during the 19181919 influenza pandemic found that those communities that implemented social distancing measures earlier experienced greater delays in reaching peak mortality, lower peak mortality rates, and lower total mortality. 2 In interpreting these data, it is important to note that "social distancing" can cover a wide range of community-based interventions, from closing schools and workplaces to eliminating mass public events to wearing face masks, and it is not always clear exactly which intervention is contributing what degree to the differential outcomes.
From page 3...
... From February 2, 2020, and on, cordon sanitaire, suspension of public transportation, closure of entertainment venues and public spaces continued, and the following measures were also implemented: centralized isolation in designated hospitals for cases; mobile-cabin hospitals, schools, and hotels for exposed and possible cases; universal and strict stay-at-home policy for all residents unless permitted; widespread temperature and symptom monitoring; and universal screening and reporting. With these added measures the basic reproductive number fell to 0.32, and the epidemic subsided.
From page 4...
... If our nation mounts a coordinated effort to detect and monitor disease incidence and tracks the control measures that are being implemented in each community, compliance rates, and other relevant data, we can better inform decisions about when social distancing measures may be withdrawn and in what circumstances they may need to be reinstated or enlarged. Judgments about when to suspend which social distancing measures will be critical and should involve discussions with public health experts, mathematical modelers, economists, and social and behavioral scientists.

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