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Appendix C: Scenarios Developed By the Committee for the "Decision Maker Needs" Webinars
Pages 295-300

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From page 295...
... THE SCENARIOS Scenario 1: Launching a Coordinated National Research Program on Climate Engineering It is 2020 and you are a cabinet member for a large developed country in an administration that has committed itself to aggressive climate action consistent with the temperature targets of the Paris Climate Agreement. Nonetheless, your government's chief science advisor has produced a report duplicating similar analyses by other sources that it is highly unlikely that the world will achieve this target at the current rate of international action.
From page 296...
... Looking further down the road, what issues do you imagine would be most important for a research program to explore to inform a later discussion of large-scale outdoor experiments or possible deployment? Scenario 2: Launching Field Tests with Possible Temperature Response and Transboundary Implications It is 2027 and you are a senior official working directly for your head of government, whose responsibilities include running an interagency task force on solar radiation management in the country in Scenario 1.
From page 297...
... The science agencies working in your research program have presented a plan to move to outdoor tests of possible deployable technologies. One team funded by this program proposes a limited test of a marine cloud brightening system to be conducted either within your country's maritime boundaries or over a small uninhabited Pacific island protectorate of your country, to measure the potential temperature response and durability of the system.
From page 298...
... They claim that these cloud modifications can lower local average air temperatures, lower local seawater temperatures, at least partially restore rainfall, and enhance natural rainforest growth. You have been asked by your president to prepare and present a decision memorandum to respond to this proposal.
From page 299...
... What would you like to know to prepare your policy position? If the best scientific assessment of the proposed solar geoengineering program indicates that it is likely to have widely varying regional effects, with significant secondary impacts to local temperatures, cloud cover, rainfall, and biomass, how would your position change?

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