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Rapid Expert Consultation on SARS-CoV-2 Survival in Relation to Temperature and Humidity and Potential for Seasonality for the COVID-19 Pandemic (April 7, 2020) (2020) / Chapter Skim
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Rapid Expert Consultation
Pages 1-6

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From page 1...
... This assessment was prepared by members of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine's Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats. The aim of this rapid expert consultation is to provide scientifically grounded principles that are relevant to decision making about the potential for seasonal variation of SARS-CoV-2.
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From page 2...
... Each approach has strengths and weaknesses: with experimental studies, environmental conditions can be controlled, but almost always the conditions fail to adequately mimic those of the natural setting; with natural history studies, the conditions are relevant and reflect the real world, but there is typically little control of environmental conditions and there are many confounding factors. Because the two approaches are so distinct, it is often difficult to harmonize the findings from the two, and relate the findings from one to the other.
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From page 3...
... 4 Personal communication, Chad Roy, Tulane University National Primate Research Center, March 24, 2020. 5 Personal communication, George Korch and Mike Hevey, National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center, March 24, 2020.
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From page 4...
... There is some evidence to suggest that SARSCoV-2 may transmit less efficiently in environments with higher ambient temperature and humidity; however, given the lack of host immunity globally, this reduction in transmission efficiency may not lead to a significant reduction in disease spread without the concomitant adoption of major public health interventions. Furthermore, the other coronaviruses causing potentially serious human illness, including both SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, have not demonstrated any evidence of seasonality following their emergence.
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From page 5...
... Issues with data quality include the estimates of reproductive rate, assumptions about infectivity period, and short observational time windows. There are also important confounding factors associated with geography and hence, with temperature and humidity: access to and quality of public health and health care systems, per capita income, human behavioral patterns, and the availability of diagnostics.
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From page 6...
... Harvey Fineberg, chair of the Standing Committee, approved this document. The following individuals served as reviewers: Jim Chappell, Vanderbilt University Medical Center; Mark Denison, Vanderbilt University Medical Center; Michael Diamond, Washington University; Matthew Frieman, University of Maryland School of Medicine; Linsey Marr, Virginia Tech; Michael Osterholm, University of Minnesota; and Stanley Perlman, University of Iowa.
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Key Terms

  • expert consultation
  • relative humidity
  • virus survival
  • century health
  • emerging infectious

  • confounding factors
  • infectious diseases
  • standing committee
  • virus grown
  • health threats

  • vanderbilt university
  • natural history
  • history studies
  • data quality
  • ambient temperature

  • infectious disease
  • university national
  • virus stability
  • controlled environmental
  • disease transmission

  • national biodefense
  • human body
  • tulane university
  • national primate
  • health interventions

  • relevant human
  • environmental dissemination
  • laboratory studies
  • lower respiratory
  • seasonal reduction


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