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Rapid Expert Consultation on SARS-CoV-2 Survival in Relation to Temperature and Humidity and Potential for Seasonality for the COVID-19 Pandemic (April 7, 2020)
Pages 39-46

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From page 39... ... This assessment was prepared by members of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine's Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats. The aim of this rapid expert consultation is to provide scientifically grounded principles that are relevant to decision making about the potential for seasonal variation of SARS-CoV-2. Read the entire page →
From page 40... ... potential for seasonal reduction and resurgence in cases.1 In general, a common approach to issue 1 is with experimental studies in the laboratory, typically involving the deliberate dissemination of a laboratory-propagated virus under controlled environmental conditions with subsequent sampling. The most common approach to issue 2 is with natural history studies that observe disease transmission in different locations and times of year and seek correlations with environmental conditions such as temperature and humidity. Read the entire page →
From page 41... ... Such studies should also examine the effects of various treatments that might be used to disinfect PPE when they cannot be discarded after single use. Chad Roy from the Tulane University National Primate Research Center shared via telephone some preliminary results of dynamic aerosol stability experiments with SARS-CoV-2 conducted over the past several weeks at the Infectious Disease Aerobiology Core program at Tulane.4 His group generated an aerosol with a fairly uniform distribution of 2 micron particles, using virus grown in DMEM tissue culture (TC) Read the entire page →
From page 42... ... Isolates from early and late in the pandemic and from different geographic regions should be studied and compared. NATURAL HISTORY STUDIES Studies published so far have conflicting results regarding potential seasonal effects and are hampered by poor data quality, confounding factors, and insufficient time since the beginning of the pandemic from which to draw conclusions. Read the entire page →
From page 43... ... Another study in 310 geographic regions across 116 countries also found an inverse relationship between temperature and humidity and incidence of COVID-19.10 One study examined cities with significant community spread compared to those without spread and found greater disease rates in cities and regions along a narrow distribution within the 30-50° N' corridor (areas of lower average temperature and humidity) , which is consistent with the behavior of seasonal respiratory viruses.11 A study in countries that had at least 12 days of data found an increase in doubling time of virus transmission at warmer temperatures (average of 9.5°C versus 26.5°C) Read the entire page →
From page 44... ... In summary, although experimental studies show a relationship between higher temperatures and humidity levels, and reduced survival of SARS-CoV-2 in the laboratory, there are many other factors besides environmental temperature, humidity, and survival of the virus outside of the host, that influence and determine transmission rates among humans in the "real world." My colleagues and I hope this input is helpful to you as you continue to guide the nation's response in this ongoing public health crisis. Respectfully, David A Read the entire page →
From page 45... ... The following individuals served as reviewers: Jim Chappell, Vanderbilt University Medical Center; Mark Denison, Vanderbilt University Medical Center; Michael Diamond, Washington University; Matthew Frieman, University of Maryland School of Medicine; Linsey Marr, Virginia Tech; Michael Osterholm, University of Minnesota; and Stanley Perlman, University of Iowa. Ellen Wright Clayton, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, and Susan Curry, University of Iowa, served as arbiters of this review on behalf of the National Academies' Report Review Committee and their Health and Medicine Division. Read the entire page →

From page 39...

... This assessment was prepared by members of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine's Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats. The aim of this rapid expert consultation is to provide scientifically grounded principles that are relevant to decision making about the potential for seasonal variation of SARS-CoV-2.

Read the entire page →

From page 40...

... potential for seasonal reduction and resurgence in cases.1 In general, a common approach to issue 1 is with experimental studies in the laboratory, typically involving the deliberate dissemination of a laboratory-propagated virus under controlled environmental conditions with subsequent sampling. The most common approach to issue 2 is with natural history studies that observe disease transmission in different locations and times of year and seek correlations with environmental conditions such as temperature and humidity.

Read the entire page →

From page 41...

... Such studies should also examine the effects of various treatments that might be used to disinfect PPE when they cannot be discarded after single use. Chad Roy from the Tulane University National Primate Research Center shared via telephone some preliminary results of dynamic aerosol stability experiments with SARS-CoV-2 conducted over the past several weeks at the Infectious Disease Aerobiology Core program at Tulane.4 His group generated an aerosol with a fairly uniform distribution of 2 micron particles, using virus grown in DMEM tissue culture (TC)

Read the entire page →

From page 42...

... Isolates from early and late in the pandemic and from different geographic regions should be studied and compared. NATURAL HISTORY STUDIES Studies published so far have conflicting results regarding potential seasonal effects and are hampered by poor data quality, confounding factors, and insufficient time since the beginning of the pandemic from which to draw conclusions.

Read the entire page →

From page 43...

... Another study in 310 geographic regions across 116 countries also found an inverse relationship between temperature and humidity and incidence of COVID-19.10 One study examined cities with significant community spread compared to those without spread and found greater disease rates in cities and regions along a narrow distribution within the 30-50° N' corridor (areas of lower average temperature and humidity) , which is consistent with the behavior of seasonal respiratory viruses.11 A study in countries that had at least 12 days of data found an increase in doubling time of virus transmission at warmer temperatures (average of 9.5°C versus 26.5°C)

Read the entire page →

From page 44...

... In summary, although experimental studies show a relationship between higher temperatures and humidity levels, and reduced survival of SARS-CoV-2 in the laboratory, there are many other factors besides environmental temperature, humidity, and survival of the virus outside of the host, that influence and determine transmission rates among humans in the "real world." My colleagues and I hope this input is helpful to you as you continue to guide the nation's response in this ongoing public health crisis. Respectfully, David A

Read the entire page →

From page 45...

... The following individuals served as reviewers: Jim Chappell, Vanderbilt University Medical Center; Mark Denison, Vanderbilt University Medical Center; Michael Diamond, Washington University; Matthew Frieman, University of Maryland School of Medicine; Linsey Marr, Virginia Tech; Michael Osterholm, University of Minnesota; and Stanley Perlman, University of Iowa. Ellen Wright Clayton, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, and Susan Curry, University of Iowa, served as arbiters of this review on behalf of the National Academies' Report Review Committee and their Health and Medicine Division.

Read the entire page →

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Rapid Expert Consultation on SARS-CoV-2 Survival in Relation to Temperature and Humidity and Potential for Seasonality for the COVID-19 Pandemic (April 7, 2020) Pages 39-46

Rapid Expert Consultation on SARS-CoV-2 Survival in Relation to Temperature and Humidity and Potential for Seasonality for the COVID-19 Pandemic (April 7, 2020)
Pages 39-46