Strengthening U.S. Air Force Human Capital Management A Flight Plan for 2020-2030 (2021) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix B: Using the USAF Human Capital Ecosystem Model to Reveal Consequences of Changes
Appendix B: Using the USAF Human Capital Ecosystem Model to Reveal Consequences of Changes
Pages 181-196
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From page 181... ...
and externalities that impact that system. To create the eco system model, the committee used a causal loops diagram to model the USAF HCM ecosystem and illustrate the causal links between the system's various components as is described in more detail here.
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CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAMS BASICS A causal loop consists of multiple causal links that show the effects of change on elements in the system. A causal link is represented with four graphical components: two variables, an arrow, and a polarity mark.
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Both birthrate and death rate affect the population levels, and create two feedback loops, shown in Figure B-3. The growth rate on the left is held + Birthrate Population FIGURE B-1 Positive causal link example.
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. There are several variables that are shadowed on the diagram in order to reduce visual complexity, including mission effectiveness and needs of the Air Force (AF)
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How does the Air Force create a force structure that is competent and capable of executing missions and defeating our adversaries? Figure B-4 zooms in on this part of the diagram, putting mission effectiveness at the center.
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A team that is fighting among itself will not perform as well as a team that gets along, everyone understands how to operate together, and nothing needs to be said in order to get the job done correctly. 4 This issue came up several times during the committee's data-gathering site visits, specifi cally in anecdotes regarding maintenance training whereby Airmen were trained in a particular aircraft model series only to be assigned to work on a different series with sufficient differences to render the training largely insufficient (or another aircraft model entirely)
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effectiveness. If externalities such as the rate of technology change or operational disruptions occur, training will need to change in order to keep training content appropriate to the needs of the mission.
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In turn, person-job fit is affected by the number of unfilled job positions and the needs of the Air Force. Simply put, if there are more needs than there are people, there is a decrease in the ability to ensure everyone is in a job FIGURE B-7 Person-job fit category links.
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There are significant time lags between predicting the needs of the Air Force and executing a recruitment, assessment, selection, and training program. Although not specifically accounted for in the model, time lags and rates of change across the entire ecosystem would be an important consideration if the Air Force is to use the model operationally.
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decreases. When the needs of the Air Force decrease, the recruitment and acceptance processes can be more selective.
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an increase in the accuracy of future needs forecast should reduce the number of unfilled job positions; 4. a decrease in the number of unfilled job positions should increase the ability for the Air Force to fit people into appropriate job categories; 5.
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SUPPLEMENTAL DETAILS ON TECHNOLOGY DISRUPTION This section elaborates on the effects of feedback loops in the ecosystem model by providing supplemental information to the fictional example contained in Chapter 2 (see Box 2-1)
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- Entrance Standards + Selectivity + Eligible Candidates - Involuntary Honorable Separations + Total Attrition + Aggregate Competency Level Needs of the AF - Person-Job Fit + Job Satisfaction - Training Attrition + Recruiting Efforts + Applicants + Knowledge about opportunities + Retention Incentives - Separations FIGURE B-12 Variables affected by needs of the Air Force (AF)
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These trees elaborate on the ways in which a single shock can create a cascade of effects registered across the system. The committee offers this detailed example to encourage the Air Force to conduct similar systematic considerations of the entire ecosystem to better understand the potential impact of single-point actions or decisions across the entire ecosystem.
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APPENDIX B 195 - Entrance Standards - Involuntary Honorable Separations - Person-Job Fit + Recruiting Efforts - Needs of the AF + Retention Incentives Accuracy of Future Needs + Needs of the AF Forecast - Vacant Positions - Person-Job Fit + Retraining Needs - Entrance Standards + Selectivity + Eligible Candidates - Involuntary Honorable Separations + Total Attrition + Aggregate Competency Level Needs of the AF - Person-Job Fit + Job Satisfaction - Training Attrition + Recruiting Efforts + Applicants + Knowledge about opportunities + Retention Incentives - Separations + Leadership "Bench" + Mission Effectiveness - Retraining Needs + Team Effectiveness - Training Outcomes Research + Aggregate Competency Level - Vacant Positions + Job Desirability Person-Job Fit + Job Satisfaction + Retention Rate - Separations - Training Attrition - Retention Rate + Total Attrition + Leadership "Bench" + Team Effectiveness + Job Desirability + Mission Effectiveness - Research into Future Needs + Service Identity - Retraining Needs Aggregate Competency Level + Team Effectiveness + Mission Effectiveness - Training Outcomes Research + Training Effectiveness + Needs of the AF - Vacant Positions - Person-Job Fit + Retraining Needs + Job Desirability + Applicants Mission Effectiveness - Research into Future Needs + Accuracy of Future Needs Forecast + Applicants + Service Identity + Job Desirability - Needs of the AF Research into Future Needs + Accuracy of Future Needs Forecast - Vacant Positions FIGURE B-13 Six trees illustrating one feedback loop affecting the accuracy of future needs forecast.
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196 FIGURE B-14 Ecosystem model highlighting one feedback loop affecting the accuracy of future needs forecast.
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