Guidelines to Incorporate the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation Measures in Preparation for Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change (2020) / Chapter Skim
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A-1 Appendix A - Technical Memorandum No.
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A-2 CONTENTS 1 PREPARING FOR EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS AND CLIMATE CHANGE ................... 6 1.1 Climate and Extreme Weather Hazards to Infrastructure .............................................................
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A-3 5 CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................................. 40 5.1 Available Tools and Methods .....................................................................................................
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A-4 LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES Table 1. Federal-level documents and frameworks relevant to climate change and resilience.
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A-5 Figure 6. Example valuation of the benefits of building a sea wall, excerpted from UNISDR (2005)
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A-6 1 PREPARING FOR EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS & CLIMATE CHANGE In the face of increased incidents and magnitudes of extreme weather events, transportation practitioners, particularly departments of transportation (DOTs) , need to understand what data and tools are available to help them make timely, informed decisions about the best use of limited resources to achieve desired results.
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A-7 preventive maintenance programs. In addition to extreme weather events, aging infrastructure is also being stressed by increases in population and development.
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A-8 funding environment in the future. These Federal-level documents and frameworks are described briefly in Table 1.
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A-9 level rise anticipated over the lifetime of the structure (DelDOT, 2015 and S Croope, personal communication, February 16, 2016)
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A-10 Hurricane Sandy Follow-Up and Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Analysis Development of Transportation Asset Management Plan Pilot Project (e.g., by the Louisiana, Minnesota, and New York State DOTs) Figure 3 outlines major components of the vulnerability assessment and asset management process preceding CBA, and notes a selection of applicable FHWA tools and publications.
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A-11 arguments for capital investments in adaptation. Formal cost-benefit methodologies are also useful in states or regions where economic and policy requirements are more stringent; furthermore, much of the information gathered during vulnerability assessments and transportation asset management planning are useful in the CBA process (Table 2)
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A-12 geographic regions and change within each region; asset vulnerability differs across asset category as well as individual design specification. Transportation agencies need to be able to identify potential stressors across a range of scenarios and timeframes compatible with their transportation planning horizons (e.g.
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A-13 Corridor Neighborhood Site/project Table 4. Sources of Guidance on Understanding Climate Risk to the Transportation System Resource Title Author/Organization Links Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S.
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A-14 Resource Title Author/Organization Links Risk-Based Transportation Asset Management: Building Resilience into Transportation Assets Report 5: Managing External Threats Through Risk-Based Asset Management (2013)
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A-15 Resource Title Author/Organization Modes Links Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 2: Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and the Highway System: Practitioner's Guide and Research Report (2014) National Cooperative Highway Research Program Multi-Asset http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepub s/nchrp/nchrp_rpt_750v2.pdf Table 5 deals predominantly with engineering adaptations that are applicable to the longer-lifecycle assets most commonly subjected to CBAs during the capital planning process.
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A-16 2.4 Evaluate institutional readiness to conduct cost benefit analysis Once first-cut adaptation priorities are identified through frameworks such as the FHWA climate adaptation assessment and asset management planning frameworks, DOTs and other public transportation agencies can evaluate and implement adaptation alternatives. Practitioners may be at various points in the process outlined in Figure 4.
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A-17 3 A ROBUST COST BENEFIT METHODOLOGY CBA is currently used for many aspects of transportation investment (bridge projects, highway feasibility studies, competitive grant programs such as TIGER, etc.) , and informative examples from other disciplines provide insight into how existing techniques may be modified to better address adaptation.
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A-18 TRB Transportation Economics Information Resource Center TRB Transportation Economics Committee Transportation Benefit-Cost Analysis Site For a more exhaustive listing of CBA tools for the transportation sector, please see: Li, Zongzhi. "Review of Literature on Highway Project Benefit-Cost and Tradeoff Analyses." (2006)
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A-19 3.1.2 Tools The survey of tools in Table 8 is not exhaustive; it is intended to be representative, spanning project-level as well as corridor- and network-level tools, tools that may or may not consider lifecycle costs, and multimodal options. In general, these tools do not consider changing climate whatsoever, nor do extreme events take center stage; however, these tools are useful in demonstrating existing frameworks and typical inputs in the CBA process, at least where physical assets are concerned.
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A-20 Tool Name/Screenshot Details Local bus/express bus Light rail Heavy rail Usability Challenges: Desktop-based application built in the late 1990s and last versioned in the early 2000s, somewhat cumbersome manual input required for multiple alternatives analyses. National Bridge Investment Analysis System (NBIAS)
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A-21 Tool Name/Screenshot Details requirements (TIGER) ; has evolved to support project, network, and corridor-level analyses.
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A-22 Key Citations Wallace, C
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A-23 Damage assessment procedures Phasing for rapid restoration of service Benchmarks and due dates for level of service and speed of restoration (important to receive reimbursements through Federal grant programs) Establishing ETO and adequate preparedness planning are widely viewed as an effective practice, but perhaps because of the lack of a clear monetary value of the activities, few tools exist to evaluate costs and benefits for practices in this category as a whole.
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A-24 Tool Name/Screenshot Details Usability Challenges: Limited to roadway assets. Focuses solely on winter weather.
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A-25 See, especially, Tool 4: Sample Transportation Security and Hazard Mitigation Strategies for Various Project Modes and Types Science Applications International Corporation, et al. Surface Transportation Security: Costing asset protection: an all hazards guide for transportation agencies (CAPTA)
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A-26 Tool Name/Screenshot Details Usability Challenges: Provides cost of countermeasure but no quantification of benefit (framework is "impacts mitigated" rather than losses or damages avoided) ; does not distinguish type of extreme weather; desktop-based Excel with macros likely to cause IT security conflicts.
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A-27 Tool Name/Screenshot Details FTA HMCE Tool The FTA HMCE Tool is designed for transit resilience projects with Federal Transit Administration hazard mitigation grant programs. Provides CBAs for floods, hurricanes, and coastal storms using a methodology based on the FEMA BCA Tool damage-frequency assessment option.
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A-28 since-invalidated (e.g., Milly et al., 2008) assumption that relevant climate statistics are static.
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A-29 Key Citations (Roads, Transit and Airports) Events, and the Highway System: Practitioner's Guide and Research Report.
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A-30 available information at time of publication and study team subject matter experts. Individual states may require the use of certain scenarios or data sources.
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A-31 Type Source Data Data Publishing Date Geographic Coverage the U.S. National Climate Assessment Intermediate-low: considers risk primarily from expansion due to ocean warming Intermediate-high: same as intermediate-low with the addition of limited ice sheet loss Highest: complete ice sheet loss *
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A-32 3.4.2 Tools Table 15. Climate resilience CBA tools relevant to the transportation sector Tool Name/Screenshot Details NOAA Port Tomorrow Resilience Planning Tool Prototype NOAA Port Tomorrow Resilience Planning Tool Prototype.
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A-33 Tool Name/Screenshot Details COAST over the lifecycle of infrastructure (cumulative losses) ; losses evaluated include direct losses as well as impacts to economic output; displaced persons and impacts to cultural and natural resources.
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A-34 Projects required or recommended by the regulatory paradigm Over 90 percent of respondents have not performed economic analyses at the program level to consider investment in extreme weather and climate change. While several respondents do perform CBAs for projects considering climate resiliency, many others cite limitations in existing tools, guidance, and funding.
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A-35 DelDOT: While a unified framework for evaluating adaptations such as elevation of roadways has not yet been implemented, DelDOT has begun engaging with changing climate by establishing increased freeboard for bridge decks, and with extreme events by defining when bridges should be closed due to wind impacts. DelDOT also employs a risk assessment framework based on HAZUSMH and is in the process of implementing an initiative titled the Statewide Strategic Weather and Flooding Plan.
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A-36 management system to guide prioritization. The agency's next step was to develop a prototype Excel-based alternatives analysis CBA tool capable of comparing build and no-build scenarios, including the cost of asset failure.
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A-37 Norway Canada These countries have implemented a number of innovative strategies to address the challenges posed by changing climate and extreme weather. In addition, a number of these countries have nationallystandardized valuation frameworks for assessing transportation projects, many of which are multi-objective and multi-modal, which address climate adaptation or resilience in general to varying degrees.
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A-38 the AdaptWaterTM project can handle adaptation alternatives analysis for thousands of assets. This tool responded to one of the Australian water utility's concerns that it had too many assets to assess manually.
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A-39 represent the opinions of the speakers rather than the study team; however, the study team believes they add a useful dimension to understanding current activities and challenges with climate adaptation CBA. 4.4.1 Climate Resilience The foremost topic addressed by invited speakers was climate resilience and quantitative CBA, often with reference to project examples as well as common analytical methods.
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A-40 Project Name Speaker Key Insights Identified Challenges Climate Change Impacts, Energy, and Sustainability on Transportation Infrastructure LOSSAN Corridor Gheorghe Rosca (HDR) Designed bridge spans with the ability to be raised in the future for <5% of project costs.
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A-41 5.2.1 Benefits Table 18 lists benefits representative of each of the CBA framework categories described above. This table is the sum of typical benefits considered in each framework; individual tools do not produce the full set of benefits shown here.
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A-42 Additional costs and benefits which may be of interest (e.g. some social and environmental benefits)
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A-43 Category Inputs Representative Available Data Sources DOT Vulnerability Assessment (criticality) DOT Asset Management Plan (criticality)
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A-44 6 REFERENCES Alexander, L
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A-45 http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/climate_change/adaptation/publications/transportation_projec ts/page05.cfm. (October 20, 2015)
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A-46 Mampara, Mathew. "FloodCast: a Framework for Enhanced Flood Event Decision Making for Transportation Resilience." Online: http://apps.trb.org/cmsfeed/TRBNetProjectDisplay.asp?
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A-47 Trenberth, K.E., P.D. Jones, P
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A-48 7 ACRONYMS AASHTO American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials CBA Cost-Benefit Analysis CMIP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project COOP Continuity of Operations Plan DOT Department of Transportation EO Executive Order EOC Emergency Operations Center ETO Emergency Transportation Operations FFRMS Federal Flood Risk Management Standard FHWA Federal Highway Administration HEC Hydraulic Engineering Circular ICS Incident Command System IPCC Interagency Panel on Climate Change ITS Intelligent Transportation System MAP-21 Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century O&M Operations and Maintenance RCP Representative Concentration Pathways RETCO Regional Emergency Transportation Coordinator RETREP Regional Emergency Transportation Representative RIMAROCC Risk Management for Roads in a Changing Climate ROI Return on Investment SROI Social Return on Investment TAMP Transportation Asset Management Plan UNISDR UN's International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
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A-49 Appendix A – CBA Tools List Table 21. Capital Improvement and Operations Tools Tool Developed By Infrastructure/O perational Focus Considers Asset Management Level (asset/corridor/network)
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A-50 Tool Developed By Infrastructure/O perational Focus Considers Asset Management Level (asset/corridor/network) Project/Program Level MOOS Bridge Level NCHRP Infrastructure Bridge Asset Project MOOS Network Level NCHRP Infrastructure Bridge Network Program NBIAS FHWA Infrastructure Bridge Network Program PONTIS (now AASHTOWare Bridge Management)
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A-51 Table 22. Hazard Mitigation, CCA, Resilience, and Sustainability Tools Tool Developed By Infrastructure/ Operational Focus Framework Type Developed for (or including)
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A-52 Tool Developed By Infrastructure/ Operational Focus Framework Type Developed for (or including) Transportation Sector (Y/N)
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A-53 Appendix B – Economic Evaluation Table 23. Economic Valuation Methodologies Economic Valuation and Supporting Data Basis Source Value of Statistical Life (VSL)
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A-54 Appendix C – Survey Response Summary Table 1. NCHRP 20-101 Guidelines to Incorporate the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation Measures in Preparation for Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change 1.
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A-55 3. Has your organization identified key local or organizational knowledge needed or used for producing cost-beneficial outcomes of resilience or adaptation activities?
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A-56 5. Please describe limitations you have encountered in using the above methods for evaluating costs and benefits of adaptation or resilience measures for individual projects.
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A-57 8. How would you characterize the user-friendliness of the tools and models you have available for cost-benefit analysis for adaptation and resilience options for projects?
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A-58 skipped question 11. Which of the following categories of data are available to your organization (based on NCHRP 814, Data to Support Transportation Agency Business Needs: A Self-Assessment Guide)
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A-59 12. Availability of which of the following constrain project-specific analysis for resilience or adaptation to extreme weather or climate change?
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A-60 14. Has your organization performed economic analyses to consider investment in extreme weather resilience or adaptation, on a program level?
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A-61 16. Which method(s)
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A-62 18. Availability of which of the following are limiting factors for program analysis of resilience or adaptation to extreme weather or climate change?
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A-63 20. If your organization uses tools or methods to help evaluate costs and benefits of resilience or adaptation measures for projects, have you had any difficulty scaling tools up to the program level?
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A-64 Appendix D – NCHRP 20-101 Survey Questions We request your response about the use of cost-benefit analysis for extreme weather. For the purposes of this survey, please see the following two definitions.
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A-65 g. Individual project-specific cost-benefit analysis h.
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A-66 h. Customer relations/public affairs data i.
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A-67 c. Emergency Transportation Operations dispatch records or after action report d.
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