Using Systems Applications to Inform Obesity Solutions Proceedings of a Workshop (2021) / Chapter Skim
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2 The Promises and Pitfalls of Systems Science Approaches: A Practitioner's Perspective
2 The Promises and Pitfalls of Systems Science Approaches: A Practitioner's Perspective
Pages 5-12
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From page 5... ...
• Systems models focused on the dynamics of equity and s ocial justice can be developed but will require sufficient data to make these concepts operational and relate them to other social determinants of health. • An ideal systems science modeling project follows best prac tices for building, testing, and documenting models and their outputs; anchors models to well-established datasets and the best studies; enlists analysts to extract data as well as statisti cians who can help interpret the data; includes stakeholders, decision makers, and subject-matter experts as advisers on 5
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He referenced statistician George Box's famous quote that "All models are wrong, but some are useful" to highlight a key characteristic of useful m odels -- that they can correctly anticipate intervention impacts even if their baseline predictions are imprecise; that is, models can be good decision-making tools even if they are not forecasting tools (Homer and Hirsch, 2006; Sterman, 2002)
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From page 7... ...
• Stochastic, operationally • Micro-sim: individual actors detailed without interaction (large N) • Stock-flow cascades, Diverse patterns of attributes by feedback loops • Discrete time individual (shorter time horizon)
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Machine learning enables mining of large databases for statistical regularities, he explained, but correctly inferring causation from these statistical regularities is unlikely. He added that artificial intelligence cannot fully overcome the challenges of incomplete data and incompatible datasets.
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First, the model indicated that the caloric imbalance responsible for the increased prevalence of obesity from 1970 to the 2000s was only about 1 or 2 percent, or less than 50 calories per day, within any given age, sex, and BMI category. Second, Homer reported that the impacts of changing environments on adult o besity take decades to manifest fully through the "carryover effect" built into the aging structure.
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From page 10... ...
. He encouraged researchers to use whatever modeling technique they find useful as long as it produces reliable answers that can help decision makers.
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SOURCES: Presented by Jack Homer, September 16, 2020; Milstein and Homer, 2020. Image used with permission of The Rippel Foundation.
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From page 12... ...
Fourth, he called for including stakeholders, decision makers, and subject-matter experts as advisers on modeling teams to help ensure that the models produced will reflect their concerns and knowledge. Fifth, he encouraged engaging other thought leaders around the country and the world who can serve as allies and intermediaries as modelers work with decision makers.
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