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9 Transport
Pages 465-524

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From page 465... ... Given the current technological and policy situation for transportation decarbon ization, the committee recommends actions to help achieve ZEV sales goals, in cluding continued tightening of federal fuel economy and emissions standards; federal and state adoption of California ZEV sales mandates; additional incentives for vehicle purchase and charger installation; and local funding and policies prefer encing EVs and chargers (Recommendation 9-1) Read the entire page →
From page 466... ... be made to improve battery and fuel cell design and performance and production of net-zero liquid fuels for hard-to-decarbonize modes such as aviation, ocean shipping, freight rail, and long-distance heavy trucks (Recommendation 9-6) Read the entire page →
From page 467... ... are powered via fuel cells, which oxidize fuels (usually hydrogen) stored onboard the vehicle and can aid deep decarbonization if the hydrogen source has low-carbon emissions.4 This chapter refers to plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) Read the entire page →
From page 468... ... It refers to ZEVs as any vehicle type that has zero carbon tailpipe emissions -- for example, BEVs and FCEVs. This chapter begins with a focus on transportation electrification, describing the committee's 2030 ZEV sales goals, supportive policies (including describing the mea sures in the IIJA and IRA that support the committee's first report goals for electrifying roadway transportation by 2030) Read the entire page →
From page 469... ... .) • Deployment of public charging infrastructure to meet charging needs, which it estimated to be at least 3 million Level 2 chargers and 120,000 fast direct current (DC Fast) Read the entire page →
From page 470... ... To reach the committee's ZEV sales goal, future projections assume a continued trend of declining share of PHEVs toward BEVs and FCEVs. SOURCE: Based on data from the U.S. Read the entire page →
From page 471... ... . The LD PEV and FCEV and charger tax credits in the IRA and the funding authorized and appropriated for charging infrastructure and other transport electrification in the IIJA will accelerate demand for PEVs.6 The IRA also provides substantial tax credits to North American manufacturers of vehicles and batteries through 2032, and for pro duction of low-carbon and net-zero liquid fuels, which will stimulate supply. Read the entire page →
From page 472... ... and do not have any mineral sourcing, battery assembly, or income/price eligibility limits. It is not clear how the IRA's changes to tax credit eligibility for individual and commercial vehicle sales will affect vehicle supply and 7 Eligibility for federal LDV tax credits require vehicle assembly in North America; 40 percent of battery minerals sourced or processed in the United States or U.S. Read the entire page →
From page 473... ... -- far short of the 3 million the committee estimates will be needed by 2030. Medium- and Heavy-Duty PEVs and Charging Infrastructure The committee's ZEV sales goals include MHD trucks reaching 30 percent of sales by 2030. Read the entire page →
From page 474... ... . Importance of Achieving 2030 ZEV Sales Goals Achieving or approaching the committee's 2030 sales goal of 50 percent ZEVs is a central element of decarbonizing transportation by 2050. Read the entire page →
From page 475... ... Any legacy ICE LDVs -- combined with hard-to-electrify-transport vehicles such as aircraft, ships, locomotives, and long-distance heavy trucks -- would continue to demand liquid fuels at a scale that would make it very challenging to fully decarbonize the transport sector by 2050 for reasons discussed in the sections "Equity and Other Crosscutting Issues" and "Actions to Expand the Innovation Toolkit" below, as well as in Chapter 8. Thus, it may be necessary to reduce the legacy stock of ICEVs even faster than would be accomplished by achieving the 50 percent 2030 ZEV sales share. Read the entire page →
From page 476... ... is largest if only a 100 percent ZEV sales goal in 2050 is met, and smallest if a 100 percent ZEV sales goal is met in 2035. SOURCES: Data from ANL (2023) Read the entire page →
From page 477... ... These barriers, and supportive policies to overcome barriers, are discussed next. Barriers in Consumer Cost and Valuation of Electric Vehicles Cost is one of the main considerations for vehicle market decision-making. Read the entire page →
From page 478... ... . Passenger safety of electric vehicles appears comparable to conventional vehicles (IIHS-HILDI 2021) Read the entire page →
From page 479... ... . Another state funding source is from the Volkswagen diesel emissions violation settlement agreement, which provides $2 billion to states for national ZEV enhanc ing investments, including charging and purchases of electric vehicles, primarily school buses (NASEO n.d.) Read the entire page →
From page 480... ... . Public charging infrastructure is limited, but new programs are providing grants to extend charging networks. Read the entire page →
From page 481... ... , batteries, fuel cells Silicon Lightweighting (EVs and Not critical Near critical ICEVs) Neodymium Magnets Critical Critical Praseodymium Magnets Near critical Critical Dysprosium Magnets Critical Critical Boron Magnets Not listed Not listed Iron Magnets, batteries Not listed Not listed Lithium Batteries Near critical Critical Cobalt Batteries, fuel cells Critical Critical Graphite Batteries, fuel cells Critical Critical Phosphorus Batteries Not critical Not critical Light rare-earth Batteries Not listed Not listed elements Electrical steel Motors (EVs and ICEVs) Read the entire page →
From page 482... ... . Supply of critical materials is important both for automakers' ability to produce electric and conventional vehicles and also because of the critical minerals sourcing require ments in the IRA. Read the entire page →
From page 483... ... . The IRA materials sourcing and EV battery assembly requirements also reduce the availability of electric vehicles eligible for tax credits in the near and possibly medium term; however, there are signs that automakers are adjusting their production of both minerals as well as batteries to capture higher tax credit value for their custom ers (Schwartz 2023) Read the entire page →
From page 484... ... The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHSTA) and EPA have released new vehicle fuel economy and GHG emissions standards, respectively, under their existing leg islative authorities. Read the entire page →
From page 485... ... Additional states could adopt these policies. State incentives for purchase of electric vehicles or charging infrastructure are countered by PEV-specific registration, charging, and other fees being instituted in more than 30 states. Read the entire page →
From page 486... ... . Government agencies and nonprofit organizations that own fleets are also beginning to require purchases of electric vehicles, in part for operat ing cost and emissions reductions, including vehicle fleets from the postal service and the Department of Defense (DoD) Read the entire page →
From page 487... ... Tax credits provided through the IRA and authorized and appropriated funding for chargers provided through the IIJA are market-pull strategies designed to incentivize consumers. Comparable, but limited, state tax credits for vehicle purchases and home charging serve the same function. Read the entire page →
From page 488... ... and to 55% EV sales by 2030 Mitsubishi Plans for 100% of EV sales by 2035 and 50% Global Group EV sales by 2030 in their Environmental Targets 2030 Porsche 80% of sales to be electric by 2030 Europe Brand BMW Group Cumulative sales of more than 2 million EVs Global Group by the end of 2025; EV sales shares of 30% by 2025, 50% by 2030 MINI and Rolls-Royce Aims to have fully electric line-up by 2030 Global Brand Lancia All new model launches from 2026 to be Global Brand electric; to sell 100% EVs by 2028 Jaguar Aims to go all-electric by 2025 Global Brand Land Rover Aims to go all-electric by 2036 Global Brand 488 A00026 -- Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States_CH09.indd 488 4/15/24 10:35 PM Read the entire page →
From page 489... ... Fuel cells are also feasible, but also currently have significant cost penalties and safety concerns. Until technology and IRA incentives significantly 489 A00026 -- Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States_CH09.indd 489 4/15/24 10:35 PM Read the entire page →
From page 490... ... Operational improvements and aircraft design changes can also provide emissions reductions. For example, airports and passenger and freight airlines could in crease use of electric vehicles in multiple airport operations, including to tow aircraft to and from runways rather than aircraft taxiing (NREL 2017) Read the entire page →
From page 491... ... . Findings and Recommendations Finding 9-1: The IIJA and IRA authorized and appropriated funding and tax credits to electrify road vehicles offer the largest, most cost-effective opportunity to decarbonize the transportation sector and will make substantial progress toward achieving the 2030 ZEV sales share goals of the committee's first report and the nation's long-term strategy for decarbonization. Read the entire page →
From page 492... ... Achieving the higher growth rates required to reach or exceed the 2030 50 percent sales share goals of ZEVs, rather than simply reaching the 2050 100 percent sales goal, would substantially reduce the number of vehicles dependent on net-zero-emission liquid fuels after 2030 as well as after 2050. Recommendation 9-1: Accelerate the Adoption of Battery Electric Vehicles. Read the entire page →
From page 493... ... State and local funding for conversion of public vehicle fleets, including transit and school buses, to electric drive; and h. Expanded public engagement programs to help consumers better understand and navigate the changes entailed in adopting and adapting their practices and household infrastructures to the capabilities and requirements of electric vehicles. Read the entire page →
From page 494... ... Numerous technical means to improve fuel economy exist, so efficiency improvements are likely to continue in the next few decades. For example, vehicle lightweighting can dramatically improve energy efficiency for either ICEs or EVs (Lovins 2020) Read the entire page →
From page 495... ... As a result, other means to reduce GHG emissions are priorities for these vehicles, such as alternative fuels or freight system improvements, as discussed below. Airplanes, locomotives, and ships also present opportunities for fuel efficiency improvements (Lovins 2021) Read the entire page →
From page 496... ... can improve efficiency. Freight transport efficiency can help reduce GHG emissions and reduce overall costs. Read the entire page →
From page 497... ... Information and Communications Technology Substitutes for Transport In many cases, information and communications technologies (ICT) can substitute for travel and thus reduce GHG emissions. Read the entire page →
From page 498... ... , but it would take very large shifts away from personal motor vehicles to significantly reduce total passenger GHG emissions. For example, doubling walking, biking, and transit trips, and assuming that this doubling replaced trips by personal motor vehicles, would reduce personal motor vehicle miles of travel from 86 to 82.5 percent, and the GHG emission benefits would be lessened to the extent that substituted trips were made in PEVs. Read the entire page →
From page 499... ... (2021) as sumed that 15 percent of California's transport GHG reduction could be achieved by reducing per-capita vehicle miles traveled through pricing roads and parking (−5.5 percent) Read the entire page →
From page 500... ... GHG emissions from ICE vehicles, vessels, and aviation operations not easily electrified can be reduced cost effectively through enhanced fuel economy, traffic flow management, freight operational efficiencies and mode shift, enhanced mode choices, and land use and zon ing policies. Enhancing efficiency also has direct economic and non-GHG en vironmental benefits even though the marginal GHG reductions from these efforts may be modest. Read the entire page →
From page 501... ... Finding 9-6: Transportation infrastructure construction and maintenance repre sents a small share of transportation GHG emissions relative to combustion from operation of ICE vehicles, but they can be further reduced in cost-effective ways by reducing the full life-cycle carbon content of input materials, enhanced use of recycled materials, electrification of construction equipment and vehicles, and low-carbon materials procurement standards. Recommendation 9-4: Pursue Infrastructure Designs, Standards, Specifications, and Procedures That Effectively Reduce Transportation Carbon Emissions. Read the entire page →
From page 502... ... Although they will benefit from lower emissions exposures, without additional policies and pro grams, the initial growth in EVs will have limited benefits for the lower-income drivers or owners of vehicles who will find it hard to purchase a new EV, nor will EV growth result in expanded mobility options for those who cannot afford to own vehicles. As discussed in the section "2030 ZEV Sales Goals and Barriers," the IRA includes specific efforts to make PEVs and charging accessible to low-income households, but broad penetration of PEV ownership in this income group will require additional efforts. Read the entire page →
From page 503... ... More over, several compact sedans priced well below these ceilings are being introduced by OEMs. The tax credits available in the IRA for home and commercial installation of charging infrastructure target rural and low-income census tracts, which will facilitate access to public charging by low-income households and renters less able to charge at home. Read the entire page →
From page 504... ... , whereas employment growth in manufacturing for PEVs and in charging infrastructure would fall 2 million jobs short of replacing these losses. PEVs, having more integrated designs with fewer parts, can be produced with fewer workers per unit of output than ICEVs, and new factories are expected to be more reliant on automation than existing ones. Read the entire page →
From page 505... ... The electric vehicle charging grants authorized by the IIJA require public participation and include 50 percent of funds set aside for community grants that prioritize projects for rural areas, low- and moderate-income neighborhoods, and communities with a low ratio of private parking spaces. Requirements for public participation in transportation planning in the past, however, have not proven effective in participants' perceptions of being heard, improvement in the decisions made, or inclusiveness of the full spectrum of the public (Innes and Booher 2004) Read the entire page →
From page 506... ... Clean Electricity for Transportation Electrification Vehicle electrification will result in greater demands on the power grid, in aggregate power demand, and potentially in peak hour demands. For example, California's overall power demand would increase 5 percent with 50 percent penetration of electric vehicles by 2030, but peak hour demand could increase up to 25 percent with uncontrolled charging times (Powell et al. Read the entire page →
From page 507... ... As noted above, the IRA has made notable efforts to enhance equity through targeted tax credits to low- and moderate-income households for EV purchase and tax credits for locating charging infrastructure in low income areas. Both the IRA and IIJA provide authorized and appropriated funds to help communities separated or displaced by transportation infrastructure to develop plans and programs to ameliorate these effects as well as funding to reduce ICEV emissions at ports. Read the entire page →
From page 508... ... New programs to assist low-income households in purchasing, owning, leasing, and insuring new and used plug-in electric vehicles; b. Assurance that public charging locations are equitably allocated, accessible, and affordable by low-income residents unable to rely on home charging; c. Read the entire page →
From page 509... ... Recycling processes for batteries and BEVs will be needed, building on the extensive recycling infrastructure for conventional vehicles. End-of-life recycling of electric vehicles and batteries is in its infancy (Chok shi and Browning 2022) Read the entire page →
From page 510... ... Standardization of connector plugs has significant benefits for BEV users. Provisions in the IIJA will encourage this standardization because any recharging infrastructure funded through this program will have to be interoperable across proprietary designs. Read the entire page →
From page 511... ... Synthetic low carbon liquid fuels could also be commercially available by 2050. For the hard to-electrify transportation applications, especially aviation, true net-zero-carbon liquid fuels, with energy density comparable to current fossil fuels, provide the most likely option for decarbonization despite their harmful emissions of conven tional pollutants. Read the entire page →
From page 512... ... . Low- and net-zero-carbon liquid fuels require robust life-cycle analysis methods to be incorporated into transportation decarbonization policy (NASEM 2022b) Read the entire page →
From page 513... ... should continue to support advances in battery design and recycling and FCEVs to reduce their associated environmental and social costs and to make battery electric vehicles and FCEVs more cost-effective. In order to address hard to electrify aircraft, ships, locomotives, and long-distance heavy trucks, DOE and NSF should target their investments in research, development, and demonstration on technologies that produce liquid fuels that use feed stocks and energy inputs efficiently to reduce costs, reduce the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of the fuels to approach zero, and make possible the scale-up of these fuels on the order of tens of percentage points of cur rent fuel volumes. Read the entire page →
From page 514... ... Policy Portfolio Battery Electric • Non-federal reductions Tightened Targets Vehicles actors • Equity for the Buildings • Health and Industrial • Public Sectors and a engagement Backstop for the Transport Sector 9-2: Promote Ports and airports • Transportation • GHG Tightened Targets Vehicle and their state and • Non-federal reductions for the Buildings Electrification at local government actors • Health and Industrial Ports and Airports owners Sectors and a Backstop for the Transport Sector 9-3: Pursue Cost- Private companies • Buildings • GHG A Broadened Effective Efficiency and state and local • Transportation reductions Policy Portfolio Improvements governments • Fossil fuels • Equity Tightened Targets to Reduce • Non-federal • Health for the Buildings Greenhouse Gas actors and Industrial Emissions Sectors and a Backstop for the Transport Sector 9-4: Pursue State Departments • Transportation • GHG Tightened Targets Infrastructure of Transportation, • Industry reductions for the Buildings Design, Standards, American • Non-federal and Industrial Specifications, and Association of actors Sectors and a Procedures That State Highway and Backstop for the Effectively Reduce Transportation Transport Sector Transportation Officials, American Carbon Emissions Road and 514 A00026 -- Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States_CH09.indd 514 4/15/24 10:35 PM Read the entire page →
From page 515... ... Objective(s) Categories Short-Form Implementing Addressed by Addressed by Addressed by Recommendation Recommendation Recommendation Recommendation Recommendation Transportation Builders Association, and other specialized transportation infrastructure materials and construction associations 9-5: Enhance States and local • Buildings • GHG Rigorous and Transportation governments • Transportation reductions Transparent Equity and • Finance • Equity Analysis and Environmental • Non-federal • Health Reporting Justice Through actors • Public for Adaptive Programs, engagement Management Planning, and Ensuring Services Procedural Equity in Planning and Siting New Infrastructure and Programs Ensuring Equity, Justice, Health, and Fairness of Impacts Tightened Targets for the Buildings and Industrial Sectors and a Backstop for the Transport Sector continued 515 A00026 -- Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States_CH09.indd 515 4/15/24 10:35 PM Read the entire page →
From page 516... ... Objective(s) Categories Short-Form Implementing Addressed by Addressed by Addressed by Recommendation Recommendation Recommendation Recommendation Recommendation 9-6: Support Department • Land use • GHG Ensuring Equity, Advances in of Energy and • Transportation reductions Justice, Health, Battery Design National Science • Industry and Fairness of and Recycling, Foundation Impacts Fuel Cell Electric Research, Vehicles, and Net Development, and Zero Liquid Fuels Demonstration Needs REFERENCES AFDC (Alternative Fuels Data Center) Read the entire page →
From page 517... ... 2022. "Future EVs: Every Electric Vehicle Coming Soon." https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g29994375/ future-electric-cars-trucks. Read the entire page →
From page 518... ... 2022a. "Battery Electric Vehicles and Low Carbon Fuel Survey: A Nationally Representative Multi Mode Survey." https://article.images.consumerreports.org/image/upload/v1657127210/prod/content/dam/CRO Images-2022/Cars/07July/2022_Consumer_Reports_BEV_and_LCF_Survey_Report.pdf. Read the entire page →
From page 519... ... Myth #2: Electric Vehicles Are Worse for the Climate Than Gasoline Cars Because of Battery Manufacturing." https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/electric-vehicle-myths#Myth2. EO (Executive Order) Read the entire page →
From page 520... ... 2018. "A Review of Consumer Preferences of and Interactions with Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure." Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environ ment 62(July) Read the entire page →
From page 521... ... 2019. "An Update on Electric Vehicles Costs in the United States Through 2030." Inter national Council for Clean Transportation Working Paper 2019-06. Read the entire page →
From page 522... ... 2023. "Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards for Passenger Cars and Light Trucks for Model Years 2027–2032 and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Heavy-Duty Pickup Trucks and Vans for Model Years 2030–2035." Federal Register 88(158) Read the entire page →
From page 523... ... 2022. "High Registration Fees Hamper Adoption of Electric Vehicles." https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/ hybrids-evs/high-registration-fees-hamper-adoption-of-electric-vehicles-a2396438631. Read the entire page →
From page 524... ... 2015. Overcoming Barriers to Deployment of Plug-in Electric Vehicles. Read the entire page →

From page 465...

... Given the current technological and policy situation for transportation decarbon ization, the committee recommends actions to help achieve ZEV sales goals, in cluding continued tightening of federal fuel economy and emissions standards; federal and state adoption of California ZEV sales mandates; additional incentives for vehicle purchase and charger installation; and local funding and policies prefer encing EVs and chargers (Recommendation 9-1)

9 Transport Pages 465-524

9 Transport
Pages 465-524